AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): As part of the ongoing regional and international analyses of the outcomes of the U.S.-Zionist regime war against Iran and the agreement recently concluded between Tehran and Washington, the London-based newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi, in an article, examined the new equation of strategic deterrence that Iran has imposed on the region.
Over the past twelve months, Tehran has formulated a regional deterrence strategy and transformed itself from the last defensive line to the first offensive line in confrontation with Israel. According to this new strategy, Iran has drawn a deep line across the seas, extending from the Black Sea to the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean, to the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa, and the Persian Gulf, and from the north to the Caspian Sea.
This new deterrence strategy encircles Israel from the west, east, north, and south, and outlines a new, achievable regional security strategy based on the principles of justice, equality, mutual respect, cooperation, and stability.
Now, following the announcement of an agreement to end the U.S.-Zionist regime war against Iran, the lifting of the naval blockade, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for safe navigation, and the restoration of Iran's rights that had been violated by previous resolutions of the United States, the UN Security Council, and the IAEA, it is the right of the Iranian people to celebrate the victory of the will of resistance based on peace and stability through military power—not only in confronting American and Israeli arrogance but in all regional conflicts.
Today, Iran, after its victory in the Strait of Hormuz, is making history in the region. After these equations, the path is clear and evident: the only solution is the will of resistance. The Islamabad agreement, which is set to be officially signed on Friday in Geneva, is merely the beginning of a journey, not its end—a journey that blends will with shrewd diplomacy, flexibility, and military retaliation.
Iran's Regional Deterrence Strategy Versus the Zionist Project
An analysis of the statements of Iranian leaders in recent days shows that Tehran extends its regional strategic deterrence range from the west, beginning with Lebanon (a red line due to its presence on the front line with Israel), from the south to the Red Sea, Yemen, and the Horn of Africa, and from the north to Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea (which form the environment of this deterrence zone). Thus, this range contradicts the principle of Israel's decisive military superiority and the Zionist strategy of regional hegemony.
These boundaries of the deterrence zone create a complex relationship between security in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf. The Horn of Africa and Central Asia require an effective regional policy and shrewd diplomacy. To this end, Iran must establish alliances of a political nature, not ideological or sectarian, to help itself and its allies fulfill their responsibilities in maintaining regional security.
In this context, strengthening Tehran's relations with China and Russia is crucial, as is developing relations with Turkey to prevent Israeli influence from reaching Central Asian countries through Azerbaijan. Given Turkey's historical influence in Central Asia, establishing deep political relations with it will help Iran maintain its national security and play a more effective role in preserving regional security.
Such cooperation is essential for the interests of both countries (Iran and Saudi Arabia). Israel must not be allowed to operate with impunity in the Red Sea, as it does in the Eastern Mediterranean, and it is necessary for Saudi Arabia to participate in creating a strong buffer zone to prevent Israel's eastward expansion through Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan.
The Imposition of Iran's Political Will on the United States Through Military Power
The Islamabad agreement between Tehran and Washington is considered the first tangible manifestation of the new regional deterrence strategy, both diplomatically and militarily. According to available evidence and statements by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Supreme National Security Council, Tehran achieved almost everything it wanted according to the general framework of the strategy: not relinquishing its fundamental national rights, not jeopardizing the achievements it had gained during the war, and not allowing any future restrictions on its freedom of will and decision-making independence.
This agreement, as announced by Tehran, includes ending the war on all fronts, particularly the Lebanese front, which puts Trump in direct conflict with Netanyahu. The significant concessions Iran secured in this agreement relate to ending sanctions, lifting the naval blockade, accessing frozen assets, and arrangements linking the fulfillment of commitments to the implementation of the agreement itself.
On the other hand, Washington's recent concessions to Tehran to satisfy it and prevent retaliation for Israel's second attack on Beirut's southern suburbs revealed a deep rift in U.S.-Zionist relations regarding this agreement. This rift reached the point where Trump, in his phone call with Netanyahu on Sunday, during which he informed him of this agreement, personally insulted him, accusing him of foolishness and ignorance in his assessment of how to manage the conflict in the region.
Trump said that in his conversation with Netanyahu, he insisted that the war in Lebanon must end and that Israel must permanently cease attacks on Beirut or any other part of Lebanese territory. Following this call, Trump issued a presidential order to end the war in the Strait of Hormuz, begin lifting the naval blockade of Iran, and open the Strait of Hormuz for safe navigation "for all."
It is noteworthy that Iranian officials, despite securing significant concessions from the United States, continue to emphasize that accepting this agreement does not mean trusting the enemy, and that Tehran will carefully monitor the implementation of U.S. commitments.
Accordingly, during the 60-day negotiation period, several issues will be discussed, including the lifting of U.S. primary and secondary sanctions against Iran, as well as the annulment of UN Security Council resolutions and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran.
The nuclear issue will also be discussed, along with a mechanism for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran after the imposed war, and Iran has emphasized the necessity of establishing a monitoring and control system to ensure the proper implementation of commitments by both parties.
The Iranian side has also stressed that its armed forces "will remain on high alert to counter any hostile conspiracy," and that Tehran's fingers will remain on the trigger.
According to the new regional strategic deterrence equation, Iran has shown that U.S. military bases in the Gulf countries have become a defensive burden, rather than an offensive asset, for the United States and the host Gulf countries.
This equation has also shown that Israel is gradually becoming a burden that drains U.S. military resources and threatens its strategic interests. Iran has recognized the role of sea routes in the strategic deterrence equation and has shifted its stance on applying the principle of the unified resistance fronts, from defense to the front line of attack if necessary.
Another indisputable point after the establishment of Iran's new deterrence equation is that the Arabs remain the absent party in the regional strategic deterrence equation, content with a marginal role in a conflict that primarily targets them.
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