AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The security order that Washington had spent decades imposing on the Southwest Asia region is now facing a strategic deadlock in the face of Iran's new deterrence power. Iran's military success in targeting American naval assets, as a technological transition from traditional naval dominance to the era of drones and ballistic missiles, has shifted the balance of power to the disadvantage of the United States, which itself initiated the war. This military development has not only undermined the credibility of America's deterrence against Iran's indigenous capability but has also, by reducing the country's ability to maintain a military presence in the region, made the final withdrawal of America from the region's borders an increasingly serious and discussable issue.
In this context, "Lawrence Wilkerson," a retired US Army colonel and former director of the office of "Colin Powell," the then-Secretary of State, in an interview with ABNA News Agency, regarding Iran's recent success in targeting American vessels and whether the era of immunity for aircraft carrier groups in the Persian Gulf has effectively come to an end, said, "The ultimate goal of America now is the openness and normal operation of maritime passages such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, whereas we still do not have such a situation, and no real sign of its realization in the near future is visible. A more accurate description of the current situation is a very costly deadlock or even an imperialist defeat. However, in a broader sense, the ballistic missiles that Iran employs have the real potential to accelerate the great victory of land power over sea power; a victory with an ancient root dating back at least three thousand years."
Missiles and Drones vs. Aircraft Carriers
Colonel Wilkerson added, "Some analysts have previously said that Ukraine, by using drones, has effectively forced the Russian navy to stay home and return to port; but such a claim indicates a misunderstanding of the nature of land and sea power, because the Russians have a degree of local superiority in both arenas. Moreover, what Russia is actually doing with Ukraine is its complete destruction."
He continued, "But in response to your question about aircraft carriers, it must be said that these carriers, from the very moment high-speed missiles and advanced drones entered the sky, became obsolete tools belonging to the past. As soon as the first carrier sinks, their aura of sanctity and grandeur will largely disappear, and along with it, billions of dollars of American capital will go up in smoke. In short, the real battle between land power and sea power is once again underway, and so far, land power has been victorious. It is worth knowing that China, as the superior land power, also possesses tremendous naval capability; including a 6,000-vessel fleet for deep-sea fishing, many of whose ships, for example, are not far behind American destroyers in terms of performance."
Washington's "Cognitive Trap"; How Did US Intelligence Underestimate Iran's Power?
This retired American colonel, regarding Washington's miscalculation and whether it can be claimed that American intelligence agencies have fallen into a "cognitive trap" in which they overestimate their own technological capabilities and systematically underestimate Iran's adaptability and military localization below reality, said, "Yes; but there is more. For example, refer to Philip Knightley's 1986 book titled 'The Second Oldest Profession: Spies and Spying in the Twentieth Century.' Although this book was written to cover the early 20th century up to the first period of Ronald Reagan and, consequently, most of the Cold War era for the American empire, it is also very relevant to today's situation.
What Knightley describes has become even more prominent today. Moreover, with the end of the Cold War, the main intelligence concerns had to find new and profitable enemies. These main intelligence concerns are mainly the CIA and the empire's National Security Agency, London's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) and Government Communications Headquarters, and Israel's Mossad.
These institutions have little interest in producing strategic intelligence for their decision-makers; rather, their focus is on planning and executing covert operations—'more exciting' activities that require massive human resources—with the aim of harming, discrediting, or weakening 'enemies' by any means possible. When strategic intelligence occasionally succeeds in revealing or reaching its intended recipients, due to the minimal effort spent on producing it and the limited personnel and budget allocated to this work, it is rarely the best or most timely intelligence. This is in complete contrast to covert service operations that employ thousands of employees and cost billions of dollars, pounds, or shekels."
From "Ernest Will" to the 2026 War; Wilkerson's Account of the Transformation of Iran's Military Power
In response to the question of whether Washington, relying on economic tools, hoped for Iran's internal collapse or strategic retreat, but whether the continuation of Tehran's controlled attacks indicates that Iran's strategic resilience has been able to completely disrupt America's cost-benefit balance, he emphasized, "Yes, that is the case. But beyond that, Iran exposed the falsehood of the so-called 'American empire' claims. In 1987 and 1988, during the 'Earnest Will' and 'Praying Mantis' operations by the United States—which occurred at the end of the brutal Iran-Iraq war—the American empire was at the peak of its power; while Iran, which was exhausted from the bloody war with Iraq but overall victorious, was not in a military position to engage with another enemy.
Finally, Ayatollah Khomeini, after the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian civilian passenger plane and all its occupants died, accepted the end of the war and the UN proposal for a ceasefire. (A reference to Imam Khomeini's remarks about accepting Resolution 598.) At that point, the IRGC began its work to prevent another defeat against the empire.
Now, after 38 years, Iran and the IRGC have built a very powerful military capability that is mainly based on highly advanced ballistic missiles, drones, and other aerial weapons. Meanwhile, America's military capability has significantly declined. Thus, in 2026, the empire suffers a total defeat in the current war—a war that was solely initiated by the empire itself.
When we look at this matter, we encounter an interesting historical irony; although such a situation is not unusual in the life of empires—especially today's American empire, which suffers from very weak leadership."
Colonel Wilkerson, regarding whether Iran's recent strategy of controlling military forces while maintaining the right to escalate is a sign of desperation or indicates a transition from a reactive power to an active deterrent power that knows how to advance its strategic objectives in the Strait of Hormuz, said, "Iran is engaged in a total war; just ask an ordinary Iranian citizen. Inflation is very high, and bombs are falling on hospitals, schools, water facilities, energy complexes, bridges, highways, and thousands of human targets. Severe sanctions have been imposed, and, for example, if it were not for China's aid, life for an ordinary Tehrani citizen would be very difficult.
However, Iran has seized the initiative on the escalation ladder and, except for its last rung—nuclear weapons in the context of conflict escalation—has the upper hand. Of course, I strongly suspect that Iran now possesses several nuclear weapons; but the empire has more than 5,000 weapons of this type. Therefore, although Iran's possession of such a weapon may mean the complete destruction of Israel, using it against the empire would be an unwise action.
Nevertheless, in the conventional battlefield, Iran is winning, and yes, part of this victory is geographical control over the Strait of Hormuz."
The Strait of Hormuz and the End of America's Military Presence
Regarding whether, given the acknowledgment by senior American advisers of the ineffectiveness of combined—economic and military—pressures in changing Tehran's behavior, Washington is forced to accept a new reality in the region to exit this strategic deadlock, he said, "Iran's determination is to stand firm until the empire returns home.
Yes, the American empire will be forced to accept the shrinking and perhaps even the collapse of the 'Persian Gulf Cooperation Council' and even some of its constituent countries, such as Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE, and perhaps Saudi Arabia, which is already, at the same time as this text is being written, being defeated by Ansarullah. The empire no longer has the ability to militarily re-enter the region, create new allies, or revive former allies and reoccupy lost territories. Therefore, I predict that this is the end of the American empire's field military presence in the Southwest Asia region."
**************
End/ 345E
