AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): At a time when pro-war factions in the United States emphasize increasing pressure and military action against Iran, Washington's calculations for entering a new conflict face serious obstacles.
Donald Trump, who in recent days, through publishing numerous positions on social media, had raised the possibility of carrying out a large-scale military operation against Iran and emphasized intensifying pressure on the Islamic Republic, suddenly announced his decision to abandon this action. After this shift in approach, he claimed that Iran and some regional countries had called for preventing conflict and halting any military action.
This decision was announced at a time when Iran, over the past few days, by strengthening its defensive capability, increasing military readiness, and sending deterrent messages from senior officials, had emphasized its position that any aggression against its security and national interests would be met with a serious and proportionate response.
Ahmad Zare'an, an international affairs expert, referring to the doubts in U.S. decision-making circles about the military option against Iran, stated, "The first challenge facing the U.S. administration is whether a large-scale military operation can essentially be a solution to the Strait of Hormuz issue; there are serious doubts in this regard."
He added, "The Americans are considering the experience of the 12-day and 40-day imposed wars, as well as recent attacks, and have concluded that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not surrender to pressures and extortion based on military operations, and has maintained its ability to respond in kind and inflict heavy blows on the other side."
Zare'an continued, "The second issue is America's concern about the potential consequences of entering a new conflict. They are worried about how the Islamic Republic of Iran will respond; because over the past months, Iran has been able to establish significant credibility for its threats, and these threats are recognized as credible in the calculations of the other side."
This international affairs expert stated, "The Americans' concern is that if a new round of military operations begins, Iran's response, in terms of quality, quantity, nature, and level of action, would be such as to impose heavy costs on the United States."
He also referred to America's equipment, logistical, and weapons limitations and said, "The Americans themselves have announced that they face serious challenges in the area of strategic weapons stockpiles, particularly defense systems such as Patriot missiles, and that the volume of these stockpiles has decreased."
Zare'an noted, "The United States, as a country that envisions various threats in other parts of the world, does not want to expend all its weapons capabilities and strategic stockpiles in one conflict."
He further identified another American consideration as the condition of its military bases in the region, and said, "A significant portion of U.S. bases in the region, for various reasons including damage to infrastructure or the political considerations of some countries, no longer have the operational capability they once did."
This international affairs expert added, "Some regional countries have announced that they will not allow the use of their bases for operations against Iran, and others face operational limitations due to sustained damage."
The $200 Billion Cost of the War for the U.S. in Five Months
Zare'an further stated, referring to the increased costs of the war for the United States, "The costs of this conflict have significantly increased for the Americans. Although various figures have been published about the costs, some estimates indicate a direct cost of about $200 billion for the U.S. over five months; a figure that is considered very heavy."
This international affairs expert stated, "The increased costs of the war have also led to increased opposition within the United States to the continuation of the conflict." According to him, "Donald Trump and anti-war factions in the U.S. are resisting the pressures of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Zionist lobby to enter a new conflict and are trying to prevent the start of another war."
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