AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Jamal Waki, a professor of international relations history at the Lebanese University, writes, "The rapid developments in West Asia indicate that the region's crises can no longer be analyzed as separate files."
"What is happening today in Gaza, Iran, Yemen, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf are interconnected links of a strategic equation that has involved regional and extra-regional actors in an all-out competition."
According to Jamal Waki, the region has moved beyond temporary crises and has entered an era in which redefining the balance of power is the main goal of influential actors.
From this Lebanese analyst's perspective, the United States is trying to pursue two seemingly contradictory paths simultaneously: on the one hand, increasing military and security pressure on Iran and the axis of resistance, and on the other hand, through negotiations and political agreements, particularly in the Gaza file, establishing a new security order in the region. For this reason, the Gaza file is no longer merely a Palestinian issue, but part of the project to reconfigure the security structure of West Asia.
Waki believes that any agreement on Gaza can only be sustainable if, in addition to ending the war, it also guarantees the political and national rights of the Palestinian nation. The experience of past years has shown that agreements relying solely on disarmament or security arrangements, without ending occupation and securing Palestinian rights, have not only failed to create lasting peace but have also paved the way for a new round of tensions and conflict.
On the other hand, Iran is also trying to increase the cost of any military action against it by developing its deterrent capability. The use of missile and drone capabilities and asymmetric warfare tools,
according to Waki, is part of a strategy aimed at deterrence and changing the calculations of the United States and its allies. In this framework, even the heavy costs of defense systems to counter lower-cost threats have become one of the important components of the war of attrition.
This international relations professor also considers the Red Sea and Yemen as other important links in this equation. In his view, the security of shipping lanes, energy exports, and the military presence of great powers have turned this region into one of the most important arenas of geopolitical competition; in such a way that any escalation of tensions on this front could have consequences beyond the region and even on the global economy.
In conclusion, Jamal Waki emphasizes that West Asia is at a decisive stage; a stage in which diplomacy, deterrence, war, and geopolitical competition are simultaneously unfolding.
In his view, the future of the region depends not merely on the ability of actors to increase military pressure, but on their success in creating a sustainable political balance and addressing the real roots of crises; otherwise, the cycle of attrition and instability will continue to cast its shadow over the equations of West Asia.
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