AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Eyes are fixed on the Zionist regime's elections, scheduled to be held on October 27 of this year. Elections that are being held amid a tight competition between "Benjamin Netanyahu," the Prime Minister of the Zionist regime, and his opponents' camp. Polls indicate the closeness of the two sides' power and the difficulty for each of them to achieve the parliamentary majority necessary to form a government.
In the meantime, three main factors can influence the election process, including the return of Zionists residing outside the occupied territories to participate in voting, the emergence of "Gadi Eizenkot" as one of the most prominent rivals of Netanyahu, and the possible role of Arab parties in determining the balance of power in the Zionist regime's parliament.
The British newspaper "The Economist," in a report titled "The overseas voters who might help oust Netanyahu," addressed the increasing willingness of Zionists residing outside the occupied territories to return to the Zionist regime and participate in the elections. Individuals, many of whom did not participate in previous elections.
The reason for this issue is that the Zionist regime's laws do not allow most Zionists residing outside the occupied territories to vote through this regime's embassies, and only limited groups have this possibility. Therefore, these individuals are forced to travel to the Zionist regime to exercise their right to vote.
The orientation of the votes of Zionists outside the occupied territories is unclear
The American organization "Coalition for Aid," which claims to operate in the field of supporting democracy in the Zionist regime, has predicted that more than 50,000 Zionists from the United States will return to the occupied territories to participate in the elections. An action that, if the election results are close, can gain special importance.
The Economist newspaper, citing "Dahlia Scheindlin," a political science researcher, estimates that every 40,000 votes may be equivalent to one seat out of the total 120 seats of the Zionist regime's parliament. However, this ratio will differ depending on the level of participation and the distribution of votes.
According to this report, the motivation of some Zionists residing outside the occupied territories goes back to the 2023 protests in the Zionist regime. Protests held in opposition to the judicial reforms proposed by Netanyahu's government. The anger resulting from the security failures related to the October 7, 2023 attacks and the way the war in the Gaza Strip was managed are also among the other factors influencing these individuals' decision to participate in the elections.
This report predicts that some of these voters, given the nature of the initiatives that encourage them to return, will likely lean toward parties opposed to Netanyahu's government. However, the actual orientation of their votes remains unclear.
Meanwhile, "Gadi Eizenkot," the leader of the "Yesh Atid" party, has been raised as one of Netanyahu's main rivals. This issue has been examined in an analysis by "Suleiman Maswadeh," an American writer, in the magazine "The Atlantic" titled "Netanyahu's defeat depends on solving a math problem."
Eizenkot's Lead in Polls
This article notes that Eizenkot's military and social background may help him attract segments of the Zionist regime's right-wing voter base. He served in this regime's army for more than four decades, comes from a family with Moroccan roots, and after separating from "Benny Gantz's" party due to political differences, founded his own party.
However, Eizenkot's lead in polls does not necessarily mean his ability to assume the position of Prime Minister of the Zionist regime. Because this regime's political system is based on the selection of parties and not the direct election of the prime minister. According to this system, forming a government requires gaining the support of at least 61 representatives out of the total 120 Knesset representatives.
The main dilemma of Netanyahu's opponents lies here. They may gain a large number of parliamentary seats but at the same time be unable to form a coalition that guarantees the necessary majority.
The issue of the exemption of Haredi Jews from military service is one of the most important axes of political dispute. The war on multiple fronts and the repeated calls for reserve forces have increased demands for a fairer distribution of the burden of military service in the Zionist regime. While the Haredi parties are not willing to forgo the existing exemptions.
Maswadeh notes that Eizenkot and a number of leaders opposed to Netanyahu's government oppose forming a cabinet that includes Haredi parties but at the same time also rule out cooperation with Arab parties. This position further limits the options available to the opponents.
This article raises the possibility of forming a minority government that relies on the support of Arab parties from outside the government to advance its plans. A solution that allows the opponents to pass some decisions without placing ministries at the disposal of these parties.
The author, to explain this scenario, refers to the experience of Yitzhak Rabin's government in the 1990s. A government that relied on the votes of Arab representatives. However, he warns that repeating such a pattern may face political protests and intensify the polarization of the internal atmosphere in the Zionist regime.
The Importance of Arab Votes in the Zionist Regime
"Lawrence J. Haas," a writer, also in an article in the publication "The National Interest" titled "How Israel's Arabs can determine the outcome of the upcoming elections," has examined the importance of Arab votes in determining the balance of power in the Zionist regime.
According to this article's estimate, the Arab population in the Zionist regime is about 2.2 million people, constituting nearly one-fifth of those eligible to vote. The author notes that parties with an Arab voter base, in the event of increased electoral participation, may gain between 10 and 15 seats. An issue that can turn them into an influential factor in forming the future government of the Zionist regime.
Haas believes these votes may help Netanyahu's opponents secure the necessary parliamentary majority if his bloc does not reach a majority. However, the opposition of some opposition leaders to cooperation with Arab parties confronts them with a political contradiction. On the one hand, they need these parties' parliamentary votes, and on the other hand, they have promised to set them aside from government coalitions.
A Test for the Zionist Regime's Political System
These comparisons reflect the author's political views and arguments. While the importance of Arab parties in the Zionist regime's elections fundamentally depends on their ability to influence calculations related to the parliamentary majority.
The sum of these three articles shows that the outcome of the upcoming elections will not be determined solely by the competition between Netanyahu and Eizenkot; rather, it will also be affected by the level of participation of Zionists residing outside the occupied territories, the distribution of seats among parties, and the ability of the opponents to overcome their differences over the Haredim and Arab parties.
In contrast, gaining more seats by either of the political camps in the Zionist regime does not necessarily mean their ability to form a stable government. Because without securing the support of at least 61 representatives, forming a government will not be possible.
Therefore, the upcoming elections, as much as being a partisan competition, are also considered a test for the Zionist regime's political system. Because disputes over political coalitions may lead to the continuation of political deadlock or the holding of new elections.
The determining question is whether the rival forces in the Zionist regime can turn the election results into a reliable majority to form and run a government, or whether internal disputes will continue to make cabinet formation dependent on complex negotiations that go beyond the ballot box results.
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