23 August 2026 - 14:37
Between Elections and Constraints: Has Trump Lost His Military Advantage Against Iran?

In a report examining the options available to President Donald Trump’s administration in dealing with Iran, The New York Times wrote that political and economic pressures, the approaching midterm elections, and declining public support for war have limited Washington’s ability to return to a large-scale military confrontation.

AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The New York Times, referring to remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the Trump administration’s efforts to implement an economic pressure campaign against Iran, wrote that a return to a large-scale war appears unlikely under current circumstances.

According to the newspaper, Trump finds himself in a position where he is engaged in a confrontation with Iran while having limited options against an adversary that is acting with greater confidence. The approaching midterm elections and rising fuel prices have also increased political pressure on the U.S. administration.

The report quoted Dennis Ross, a former American-Israeli diplomat, as saying that Tehran believes Trump has little appetite for military escalation under current conditions. According to the report, opinion polls also indicate that a war with Iran does not enjoy broad support even among Republicans, a factor that could become a political liability for the U.S. administration.

The New York Times also claimed that Iran has managed to withstand U.S. and Israeli attacks in recent months and has imposed costs on Washington through measures including targeting oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

The report further identified China as the most significant factor in the United States’ economic pressure campaign against Iran, given that Beijing purchases a substantial portion of Iranian oil. However, the Trump administration has remained cautious about increasing economic pressure on China because of its efforts to improve bilateral relations and the possibility of a future meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Edward Fishman, Director of the Center on Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that after years of sanctions, the most significant remaining option is to target Iran’s trading partners, particularly China. He added that Trump is unlikely to pursue such a course under current circumstances.

In conclusion, The New York Times, while highlighting the narrowing range of options available to the U.S. administration in dealing with Iran, criticized Washington for lacking a long-term strategy.

Dennis Ross, assessing the Trump administration’s approach, said that Washington’s policy toward Iran resembles a game of checkers rather than chess—a description suggesting short-term decision-making and the absence of a clear roadmap for addressing the challenges posed by Iran.

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