AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The American magazine Newsweek has written that the experience of Libya and the security and political turmoil resulting from it still casts a shadow over America's strategy in the Middle East. This is in circumstances where "Donald Trump," the President of the United States, faces growing challenges due to the war against Iran.
This magazine, in an article by "Tom O'Connor," has explained that the shadow of the Libyan war is being raised once again in circumstances where there are concerns in America that the overthrow of Iran's system, without having a clear picture of the post-war era, may lead to consequences far more dangerous than the results of the fall of "Muammar Gaddafi's" government in 2011.
Newsweek considers the Western military intervention in Libya a warning example of the limitations of air power in achieving sustainable political and strategic objectives. Because the overthrow of Gaddafi with the support of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) did not lead to the creation of a stable country.
On the contrary, according to this magazine, the overthrow of Gaddafi was accompanied by internal divisions, armed conflicts, and the deterioration of the security situation. The consequences of these developments were not limited to the interior of Libya and took on regional and international dimensions, including the increase in migration to Europe, the expansion of the activities of armed groups in the African Sahel region, and the increase in Russia's influence in parts of this continent.
Warning About Repeating the Libya Scenario
This article establishes a connection between the consequences of the Libya crisis and Trump's political rise. According to O'Connor, the turmoil in Libya, the migration crisis, and the 2012 attack on the American consulate in the city of "Benghazi"—during which "Christopher Stevens," the American ambassador to Libya, and several others were killed—helped intensify criticisms of Barack Obama's administration.
Trump also exploited these issues in his election campaign against "Hillary Clinton" and ultimately reached the presidency in 2016.
In this context, the author cites analysts who believe that the consequences of the intervention in Libya helped strengthen populist tendencies and currents opposed to the traditional political structure in the West.
In contrast, the article points to a contradiction in America's current position. Trump, who had previously criticized the overthrow of Gaddafi and the turmoil that followed, now faces a war against Iran that has created similar concerns about the absence of a clear vision for the future of this country.
This report also refers to the warning of "JD Vance," the US Vice President, about repeating the Libya scenario and Iran becoming a failed state. A situation that can lead to a widespread wave of asylum-seeking, the expansion of terrorism, and regional instability.
America's Objectives Depend on the Outcome of the Confrontation
This article writes that America's declared objectives include guaranteeing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the continuation of the flow of oil and gas transfers, as well as preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. However, the realization of these objectives depends on the outcome of the military confrontation and Washington's ability to contain its consequences.
The author emphasizes that there are fundamental differences between the situation in Libya and Iran. The intervention in Libya was carried out with the coordination of allies and within the framework of a kind of international cover. But the war against Iran was started with the cooperation of the Zionist regime and has been accompanied by the opposition of some regional partners and without enjoying similar international authorization.
Also, according to analysts whose views the author has cited, in Iran there is no armed internal opposition force similar to the forces that confronted Gaddafi. In addition, Iran's geographical extent, its capabilities, and its network of alliances make military invasion, occupation, and domination over this country a very complex mission.
Therefore, this article quotes the warning of experts that air superiority, however effective it may be in weakening the enemy or destroying its capabilities, is alone not sufficient to overthrow a political system and guarantee stability afterward.
The Libyan experience has shown that the absence of international agreement on the transitional phase and the inability to manage internal balances can pave the way for long-term conflicts and the formation of security vacuums, vacuums that are difficult to contain.
On this basis, continuous diplomacy, the drafting of security arrangements, and the rebuilding of government institutions are considered essential elements of any strategy for the post-war era.
A Warning Lesson for Trump
Newsweek's analysis also addresses broader geopolitical dimensions and links the collapse of the Libyan state to the increase in the activities of armed groups in the African Sahel region. This magazine in this context refers to the participation of fighters from the "Tuareg" ethnic group who had previously fought alongside Gaddafi and later appeared in the conflicts in northern Mali.
The article also says that Russia has benefited from the consequences of Western intervention in Libya to strengthen its security presence in Africa. Meanwhile, according to reports that Newsweek refers to, Moscow has provided intelligence and reconnaissance support to Iran during the war. Support that can increase Iran's ability to target American bases in the region.
This report concludes that the biggest challenge facing Washington is not merely limited to determining the military outcome of the confrontation but also encompasses its long-term strategic consequences.
According to Newsweek, wars that are started or continued without a clear political plan for the post-conflict era may, instead of strengthening America's influence, weaken it and reduce this country's ability to deter its rivals, especially Russia and China.
On this basis, Newsweek presents the Libyan experience as a warning for Trump. The overthrow or military weakening of an enemy does not necessarily mean political victory. If there is no comprehensive plan for the post-war era, its consequences may become a strategic burden whose cost exceeds the expected achievements.
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