AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The war of America and the Zionist regime against Iran has brought about developments that go beyond the battlefields. Developments that can reshape the balance of power in the Middle East and the world. From the possibility of the expansion of China's military influence and the adoption of a strategy of permanent wars on the borders by the Zionist regime to the strengthening of Tehran's capability despite the damages it has suffered.
"Kenneth Pollack," the deputy director of the policy studies department at the Middle East Institute, wrote in an article in the magazine "Foreign Policy" that the war against Iran may be a historical turning point that redraws the rules of geopolitics. He warned that the long-term strategic consequences of this war may be more dangerous than its direct military effects.
According to the claim of this writer, who was previously a military analyst at the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the war showed that Western defense systems are effective in intercepting a major portion of Iranian missiles and drones. But the passage of even a limited percentage of these attacks has been enough to inflict heavy damage and provoke economic and psychological concerns in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf littoral.
Pollack believes that intercepting about 90 percent of attacks does not guarantee sufficient protection. Because the damage caused by the remaining attacks threatens the energy, trade, investment, and tourism sectors and weakens the image of the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf littoral as a safe haven for business and economic stability.
After the countries of the region realized the limitations of relying on the support of America and the Zionist regime, they began purchasing Turkish drones. Meanwhile, some other countries are also trying to develop their domestic production capability with the cooperation of American, Zionist, Chinese, and Ukrainian companies.
China and Military Power
On the other hand, the writer points out that the war has revealed the limitations of China's ability to protect its interests and partners in the region. This is while China has a great dependence on Persian Gulf oil, to the extent that this region supplies up to half of Beijing's oil imports, and the volume of China's trade with the countries of the region also exceeds 500 billion dollars annually.
Pollack raises the possibility that recent developments will push China to strengthen its ability to display military power in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Especially since Beijing is expanding its naval fleet and aircraft carriers.
If such a development materializes, the military balance and security relations in the region will change, and Washington will face a new rival in an area it has dominated for several decades.
The Zionist Regime and Permanent Wars
The writer continues by predicting that the Zionist regime may adopt a strategy based on creating buffer zones in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and Syria and carrying out continuous military operations to prevent the formation of capabilities that threaten this regime's security.
He compares this approach with the strategy of the Roman Empire. An empire that relied on creating buffer zones and waging war outside its borders to guarantee its internal stability.
However, the implementation of such a strategy requires long-term mobilization of military forces and society and may erode the Zionist regime's economy and damage its technology sector. A sector that depends on interaction and connection with the global economy.
Also, the continuation of military operations carries the risk of deepening the Zionist regime's isolation and deepening its differences with America. Especially since criticism of the alliance between Tel Aviv and Washington is increasing.
Iran May Emerge Stronger from the War
Inside Iran, the writer does not rule out the possibility that the war, instead of weakening Tehran, will strengthen its influence. Iran has learned during this war that threatening the Strait of Hormuz and targeting Washington's allies can impose heavy economic and psychological costs on all parties.
On the other hand, Pollack claims that the rise to power of individuals he refers to as hardliners may make reaching a nuclear agreement more difficult. Especially if these individuals conclude that the only way to prevent future attacks is to obtain nuclear weapons.
The writer also notes that the support of Russia and China may help Iran rebuild its military arsenal and strengthen its capabilities.
According to the writer's claim, if the war ends without curbing Iran's ability to disrupt shipping and threaten the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf littoral, Tehran may, despite its military losses, enjoy greater regional and international influence.
**************
End/ 345E
