AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The US Treasury Secretary recently claimed in remarks that the goal of economic pressure is to bring Iran to the negotiating table, and that the objective of the "economic isolation" operation is to create conditions that would return Iran to negotiations.
Donald Trump, the President of the United States, also repeated his claims in an attempt to convince the American public, which does not accept the cost-benefit paradox of the war against Iran and whose livelihood priorities have turned into a crisis of legitimacy for the president, saying that Iran is a defeated country and that America controls the Strait of Hormuz.
In this context, Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and a member of the Council of Economic Advisers under the Reagan administration, in an interview with ABNA regarding the economic and security consequences of the war with Iran for Trump personally and the cost that America has paid for this war, emphasized that public support for Trump has declined due to his war of choice against Iran.
He said, "Trump has paid and will continue to pay the cost of this war in the court of public opinion."
The Security and Political Costs of the War for America
Hanke added, "From a security perspective as well, the United States has paid an equally exorbitant cost for this war. The White House has consumed massive amounts of ammunition, weakened the navy, and revealed the limits of American power to Moscow and Beijing. Trump's war has also alienated Gulf allies from America, allies who have clearly stated they do not want to play a role in any further escalation of tensions."
He emphasized, "What could be most important is that the image of the United States and Israel has been severely damaged, while Iran's image has improved."
The Strait of Hormuz; A New Lever of Power Balance
He went on to respond to the question of whether Iran, relying on "energy geopolitics" and blocking trade routes, is effectively redefining the balance of power in the Middle East beyond conventional military capability, saying, "Iran quickly realized that it could control the Strait of Hormuz and will continue to maintain its control over it. In fact, Iran now controls one of the world's eight key chokepoints. Therefore, it is clear that Iran, as a middle power, has defeated a superpower."
To explain this situation, Hanke referred to the story of Lilliput and added, "Iran, like the story of Lilliput, has tied down the Gulliver character—Uncle Sam. Each round of this conflict has left Iran in a stronger position and the United States in a weaker one."
The War's Blow to Americans' "Wallets"
The Johns Hopkins professor, regarding the possibility that Trump's aggressive policies against Iran could become "strategic self-destruction" for his party's standing in the upcoming elections, as well as the breaking point of public support for the US president, said, "I believe this dam has already broken. It broke when the war hit Americans' wallets."
He explained, "Americans can tolerate a great deal of foreign policy adventurism, as long as their cost of living is not affected. But as soon as the war directly affects Americans' cost of living, through fuel or food prices, support for the government that continues the war declines. In midterm elections, costly wars usually carry a death sentence."
In another part of the interview, regarding Trump's narrative that rising fuel prices are a "small price" for confronting Iran and why this narrative has failed to convince the American public, Hanke said, "Trump's political narrative has failed to convince people for two reasons. First, it is an insult to farmers and truckers who depend on diesel. Second, it is clear that this war is a religious war financed and supported by America. This reality becomes clearer to the American people every day."
Declining US Influence and Shifting Regional Balance
He then, referring to the consequences of this war for America's position in the region, stated, "Trump's war of choice against Iran has been a strategic disaster. US power in the Middle East will be greatly diminished from now on, and Iran and Turkey will be in a position of dominance."
Trump Trapped Between Withdrawal and Escalation
Hanke concluded, in response to the question of whether Trump will be forced into tactical withdrawal and de-escalation, or whether he will move toward "controlled escalation" to escape the crisis of domestic legitimacy, said, "Trump is trapped, his popularity is declining, and there is no clear way out. Continuing the war will only further weaken support for him. Tactical withdrawal is the logical and economically sensible option."
At the same time, referring to Trump's approach, he added, "But we are talking about Donald Trump here. His method of operation consists of three elements: first, attack, attack, attack; second, deny, deny, deny; and third, I won, I won, I won."
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