AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Three sensitive issues, immigration, identity, and the rise of the far right, have intersected in France's current debates. Content published on the websites "Orient 21," "Le Figaro," and "Libération" has offered different approaches to these issues. Approaches ranging from historical and political analysis to demographic modeling and examining the signs of the far right's presence in French society.
According to a study whose summary Le Figaro published, citing the "Migration and Demography Observatory" (OID), the future of France's demographic composition depends largely on the level of migration flows and the policies adopted toward them.
The study presents three scenarios up to 2100 while emphasizing that demographic predictions are inherently uncertain.
In the high scenario, which assumes the annual entry of 350,000 permanent migrants, it is predicted that people of non-European origin, based on the study's definition, which tracks three generations, will reach a majority among newborns shortly after 2040 and will form the majority of the total population in the mid-2070s.
In the middle scenario, based on the annual entry of 250,000 permanent migrants, the study predicts that people of non-European origin will reach a majority among newborns shortly after 2050 and become the majority of the total population in the 2090s.
In the restrictive scenario, which assumes a reduction of migration from outside Europe to one-quarter of the middle scenario's level, the share of people of non-European origin, according to this study, will stabilize at around 30 percent of the population by 2070.
Le Figaro emphasizes that these scenarios are not definitive predictions but probabilities based on specific assumptions. The study itself acknowledges that some variables, especially fertility trends, migration, and reverse migration, are difficult to predict.
Identity and Racism
In contrast, a conference addressed by "Orient 21" titled "Racism, Islamophobia, and Immigration: Awareness for Better Confrontation" focused on the historical and political backgrounds of the debate on immigration and identity.
Pierre Tevanian, a philosopher, lecturer, social activist, and writer in the field of Islamophobia, said that to understand contemporary racism, one must return to France's colonial history.
In his speech, Tevanian did not consider racism merely as considering a group different, but rather linked it to turning this difference into a kind of deficiency or threat and then using it to justify discrimination and inequality.
Sarah Jajira, the editor-in-chief of "Orient 21," also believed that the concept of secularism—one of the foundations of French policy—has been extended to issues that have no direct connection to it. In this regard, she referred to regulations related to official images as well as the fight against racism.
She criticized what she described as turning secularism into a more restrictive tool against certain groups and said there has been confusion between secularism and various security or social issues.
Marie Luc, a journalist and researcher who addressed the historical dimensions of the issue at this conference, also linked some current discourses about replacement and invasion to historical examples in far-right literature and called for studying France's colonial history to understand the roots of some perceptions about immigration and immigrants.
Based on the views presented at this conference, raising awareness about colonial history, accurately understanding the concept of secularism, analyzing media discourse, and recognizing how stereotypes about Muslims and immigrants are formed are essential tools for understanding and confronting racism and Islamophobia.
The Far Right in the Public Sphere
The newspaper Libération, in an article by Thomas Legrand, offered an approach closer to daily political developments and addressed the city of Carcassonne. He examined a series of events that, in his view, are signs of the presence of far-right ideas in local institutions.
In this regard, Legrand referred to the actions of a mayor who is a member of the "National Rally" party, as well as the incident of the publication of audio files attributed to one of the city's police officials, which, according to the newspaper's report, contained racist, conspiratorial, and sexual remarks.
He also addressed a video by "Romain Gendron," a military chaplain, in which, according to the newspaper, he claimed that France might be replaced by another culture and values. Remarks that allude to the "Great Replacement" theory.
The priest also attacked the French government and the politicians who run it and asked in a protest tone: "We have placed incapable people in positions of responsibility; people who sow, people who preach to everyone, ideological people... Is this France?"
The author believes these local events can provide a picture of how far-right ideas emerge in government institutions and society.
Between Demography and Politics
These materials show that the question "What will France look like in 2050?" is not limited to demography. Le Figaro focuses on the impact of policies and immigration on the future demographic composition. Orient 21 highlights colonial history, racism, Islamophobia, and how the media addresses immigration, and Libération links this discussion to the expansion of the far right's presence in the public sphere.
On this basis, the picture obtained of France in the mid-century will depend on the interaction between demographic policies, migration flows, demographic changes, the definition of national identity, and the nature of political and media discourse.
However, figures related to the future remain conditional scenarios rather than definitive results, and alongside that, the political debate about the path France should take in the coming years continues.
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