AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago and a researcher in military affairs who has at times provided training to the U.S. Air Force, stated in an interview that Donald Trump has now fallen into a "sinister trap" in which Iran, by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, holds strategic superiority.
This prominent expert believes that bombing campaigns against another country with the aim of regime change often have the opposite effect. Pape acknowledged that despite attacking Iran, the United States has weakened its strategic position and has fallen into a sinister escalation trap.
Iran Has Emerged Stronger from the War
He emphasized that the Islamic Republic of Iran has emerged stronger from the war with the United States and Israel, and that this has changed everything. The analyst further added that Iran holds the important lever of the Strait of Hormuz, and that months of bombing and economic pressure, rather than deterring Tehran, have convinced Iran's leaders that they must maintain and expand their newly acquired leverage.
Pape, emphasizing Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, said that Iran – not the United States – effectively controls the world's most important oil chokepoint. He added, "If you want to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, there is one country you need to call. That country is not the United States. It is not Israel. It is Iran."
Pape pointed to Iran's recent attacks on two commercial vessels as evidence of Tehran's growing influence. He argued that even these attacks have been sufficient to significantly reduce commercial traffic through the strait. According to Pape, Iran no longer needs to carry out large-scale attacks or completely close the waterway. Instead, occasional attacks are enough to keep shipping companies concerned, keep insurance costs high, and pressure global oil markets.
Pape believes that the Lebanon issue remains another major obstacle to reaching an agreement between Iran and the United States. He emphasized that the United States cannot realistically enforce the provisions of the memorandum of understanding that guarantee Lebanon's territorial integrity while Israel continues its military operations and seeks to maintain its positions in southern Lebanon.
Pape described Israel as an unpredictable factor in the broader regional conflict and argued that Israel's security concerns could provoke further conflict and escalate tensions regardless of Washington's preferences.
In response to the question of whether financial incentives could persuade Iran to compromise, Pape said that this is not a business deal. According to him, power – not money – is Iran's primary goal, and financial incentives are unlikely to produce lasting concessions.
Pape emphasized the weakening of Trump's position within the United States and added that Trump, on one hand, faces the possibility of the Republican Party's defeat in the midterm elections due to the war with Iran, and on the other hand, segments of the "MAGA" (Make America Great Again) movement supporters are calling for stronger military action against Iran. He also added that on the other hand, many conservatives who support Trump's "America First" foreign policy are opposed to another war in the Middle East.
Pape warned that any further disruption to Persian Gulf oil exports could quickly raise fuel prices and intensify domestic political pressure. He emphasized that even if the strait is fully reopened, it would still take more than a year for oil supply and prices to return to normal.
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