AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Spain's El País, in a report titled "The World on the Brink After Two Months of Closure of the Strait of Hormuz," stated that the lack of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran and the continuation of the energy crisis if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen in the coming weeks have cast the shadow of a threat of collapse over the global economy.
The widely circulated Spanish newspaper, referring to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz resulting from the aggression of the United States and the Israeli regime against Iran—which had previously seemed unlikely—noted that since mid-April, the American naval blockade to strangle Iran's economy has also been imposed, completely halting the transport of crude oil, gas, diesel, and fertilizer from the Persian Gulf.
El País wrote, "Despite some traffic, the Strait of Hormuz remains locked, and a thirstier world, deprived of the route through which a fifth of its oil and liquefied natural gas passes, awaits."
"In this transitional period—neither war, nor peace, nor negotiation—we are witnessing only growing uncertainty, and this new phenomenon (referring to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz) is on the verge of becoming something more dangerous: a monster in the form of the real danger of recession, if this closure does not end soon."
"Donald Trump, the U.S. president, indifferent to his popularity crisis and the economic data that contradict him, stated on Thursday that the United States is preparing for a prolonged closure of the strait—a closure that could last weeks or perhaps months."
The Spanish media outlet continued, "The situation we face recalls the early days of the tragic year 2020, when a small, unknown virus began to circulate in the world and we thought nothing had happened, unaware that we were on the edge of a pit, a precipice."
El País wrote, "Oil prices, currently at their highest since 2022, react to any White House provocation with an increase. But they are still very, very far from where the dozens of experts consulted by El País believe they could be. According to these experts, either the strait will open soon, or the global economy will collapse, thanks to Trump."
"Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, warns: 'If Hormuz remains closed for a longer period, the situation will get worse and worse; shortages of various goods will increase, leading to higher inflation; we will see more supply constraints and less economic activity.'"
"A senior European financial source believes: 'The baseline scenario is still that this issue will be resolved relatively soon and well, but if it lasts several more weeks, we will see very damaging consequences. We are potentially talking about a very serious crisis.'"
"Leopoldo Torralba, deputy chief economist at Arcano Research, warns: 'We are not aware of the danger posed by the failure to reopen Hormuz soon; financial markets are practically ignoring it and are forecasting an almost ideal economic scenario that is increasingly difficult to believe. Meanwhile, less favorable options are increasing. Who can guarantee that someone like Trump, with such a level of selfishness and humiliated by Iran, will not attack Kharg Island or other key energy infrastructure? Iran will also respond, and a huge recession will occur. This is not likely, but it is not unlikely either.'"
"Thierry Brousse, a professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po), says, 'I highly doubt that Hormuz will be opened within a month, and this makes me think we should prepare for a global recession scenario. With two months having passed since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world has entered a systemic risk phase. But if we continue on this path, we will reach a crisis comparable to 1973.'"
El País, explaining the 1973 crisis, wrote, "Some images are beginning to recall those difficult days of 50 years ago, when the OPEC oil embargo triggered an inflationary cycle and derailed the economy. The Philippines and Madagascar have declared states of emergency. Nepal has been rationing fuel for weeks. Myanmar has restricted driving to every other day, and Bangladesh has forced shops and businesses to close early to reduce energy consumption. Although still in the early stages, the signs have also reached Europe: Lufthansa and KLM have canceled thousands of their least profitable flights to save fuel."
"Paula Rodríguez-Massó, head of oil analysis at the Norwegian consulting firm Rystad Energy, explains: 'Look at the situation in Asia to predict what might happen here (in Europe) if Hormuz does not open before summer. It's true that we in Europe have more room in terms of inventories, but these are limited.'"
"She recalled, 'The warm months in the Northern Hemisphere are also peak consumption season for airplanes and cars. The end of the year largely depends on how we enter June. If there is a clear prospect of reopening Hormuz by then, we will avoid catastrophe; otherwise, prices could double. Simply put, $200 per barrel of crude oil is a weapon of mass destruction for the economy.'"
"Samantha Gross of the Brookings Institution predicts, 'Releasing strategic reserves helps, but if the closure lasts a long time, they will eventually run out; high energy prices will eventually be reflected throughout the supply chain through transportation, and more worryingly, the food sector will be affected both by higher fuel prices and by fertilizer shortages. As always, developing countries and the poorer segments of society will suffer the most.'"
"Karim Fawaz, director of energy and natural resources at S&P Global Energy, believes: 'There was a short window of opportunity at the beginning of the crisis when a rapid resumption of flows could have enabled a recovery without lasting damage. But that time has passed. We are entering the third month of the most serious oil supply crisis in history in terms of volume, and if the reduction in consumption due to price increases is not enough, demand destruction will have to occur through rationing or shortages.'"
"Víctor Burguete, a senior researcher in global geopolitics and security at the Barcelona-based think tank CIDOB, explains: 'This fragile calm does not match the field situation in Hormuz; the world is witnessing a dangerous contest to see who can endure longer, and Trump is underestimating Iran's resistance. Martyrdom and resistance are the basis of their culture. No matter how much Trump wants to pursue the same strategy, Iran is not Venezuela.'"
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