AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): As the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran continues, fears of a global food crisis are mounting. The crisis could place tens of millions of people across the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia at risk of starvation, especially at a time when energy prices have surged and global supply chains are already under strain.
In a report prepared by Ahmad Jarrar for Al Jazeera, the far-reaching dimensions of the crisis are revealed: although the conflict is unfolding far from the frontlines, its ripple effects are already threatening the livelihoods of hundreds of millions worldwide and have turned food security into one of the most severely impacted global challenges.
Global food security is assessed through a set of key indicators, including food prices, particularly for staple grains, energy costs, agricultural input prices, supply stability, and people’s ability to access food. Any disruption to these indicators quickly reflects in markets, driving up prices and accelerating the spread of hunger.
According to estimates by the World Food Programme, every 1% increase in oil prices raises global food prices by approximately 0.2%, while also increasing costs for fertilizers, transportation, and logistics. These pressures could push global food prices up by 20% to 25%, potentially exposing around 45 million people to the risk of famine if the war continues.
A senior United Nations official has warned that any potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could further intensify the food crisis, given the vital role this chokepoint plays in global energy transit. Current threats in the region are already disrupting supply chains and making access to food increasingly difficult.
The risks are especially acute in countries already grappling with humanitarian crises, such as Sudan, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Somalia, where hunger is compounded by ongoing conflict and economic collapse.
The impacts of this crisis are not evenly distributed. They are concentrated in the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel region of Africa, and South Asia, areas that have long suffered from chronic food insecurity. In these nations, rising prices are eroding purchasing power and making access to food significantly more difficult.
The consequences of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran extend beyond fuel prices and are now affecting agriculture as well. The production of nitrogen-based fertilizers, such as urea, ammonia, and ammonium nitrate, is more than 70% dependent on natural gas. This dependency means that food prices are highly sensitive to fluctuations in energy costs.
International organizations warn that the continuation of war and energy market instability could, in the long term, undermine the structure of the global food system and trigger a widespread, prolonged crisis.
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