AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): António Guterres told reporters at the UN, "The Middle East crisis is entering its third month, and despite a fragile ceasefire, the consequences are escalating dramatically with each passing hour."
He stated, "I am deeply concerned about the restriction of navigation rights and freedoms in the Strait of Hormuz region, a situation that is hindering the transport of oil, gas, chemical fertilizers, and other vital goods, disrupting energy markets, transportation, production, and food supplies, and putting the global economy under severe strain."
The UN Secretary-General outlined three possible scenarios. First, a scenario in which restrictions are lifted immediately. In this case, supply chains would still need months to recover, prolonging the decline in economic output and the rise in prices.
According to him, in this scenario, global economic growth will still decline this year, from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent, and global inflation, which had been trending downward, will rise from 3.8 percent to 4.4 percent. Global goods trade growth would also fall from 4.7 percent last year to around 2 percent, with significant disruptions to supply chains.
Guterres emphasized, "A world still recovering from the impacts of the pandemic and the Ukraine war will face further economic pressures, and this is the best-case scenario."
The UN Secretary-General said that in the second scenario, if the crisis continues until the middle of 2026, economic growth will fall to 2.5 percent. Inflation would reach 5.4 percent, and 32 million people would be added to the global poverty.
He stated, "Fertilizer shortages and reduced crop yields would occur. An additional 45 million people would face severe hunger, and hard-won development gains would be rapidly reversed."
Regarding the third scenario, a continuation of severe disruptions until the end of 2026, Guterres warned, "In that case, inflation would exceed 6 percent, economic growth would collapse to 2 percent, widespread suffering would occur, particularly for the world's most vulnerable populations, and the world would face the risk of economic recession, a recession with profound consequences for people, economies, and political and social stability."
He noted that these consequences multiply exponentially, stating, "The longer this vital artery remains blocked, the harder the recovery will be, and the greater the human cost."
The UN Secretary-General emphasized that developing countries will suffer the most, as heavy debt limits their ability to cope with job losses, rising poverty, and hunger.
Guterres continued, "This crisis has already locked in losses for months to come. For every day ships are unable to move, these costs increase, and their effects ripple through the global economy."
Stating that the UN is working to mitigate the effects of this crisis, he said the head of the International Maritime Organization is developing a framework for the safe evacuation of ships and seafarers from the conflict zone, provided that safety conditions are met.
The UN Secretary-General stressed, "Now is the time for dialogue and for finding solutions that pull us back from the brink, and for taking actions that pave the way for peace."
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