AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Against the backdrop of a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, attention is focused on potential military scenarios that Washington is considering alongside the ongoing naval blockade, while warnings have been raised about Iran's responses, which could expand the scope of the conflict in the region.
According to a report by Al Jazeera, a report by correspondent Ahmed Jarar indicates that the U.S. government, despite relying on the effectiveness of a severe naval blockade to pressure Tehran into accepting an agreement on Washington's terms, is not limited to this approach and continues to examine military options.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, had previously indicated that a blockade is more effective than bombing, while simultaneously, military preparations continue as an alternative option.
Three Scenarios Before Trump
According to a report by Axios, General Brad Cooper, the commander of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), is preparing to present three main scenarios to the U.S. president. This action follows a previous briefing on February 26, which, according to sources, has played a role in subsequent military decision-making.
First Scenario
The first option involves conducting a wave of intense, short-term strikes on vital infrastructure inside Iran. These targets could include bridges, energy facilities, and power plants. The goal of these strikes would be to pressure Tehran to return to the negotiating table and retreat from its positions on the nuclear issue.
Some unofficial reports have raised the possibility of using the "Dark Eagle" hypersonic missile—a missile with a speed approximately ten times the speed of sound, a range of nearly 3,500 kilometers, and the capability to penetrate missile defense systems.
Second Scenario
The second option involves more extensive military operations that may include ground forces. The stated goal of this operation is to seize control of parts of the Strait of Hormuz and reopen it for commercial shipping.
This scenario also raises the possibility of using units of the U.S. Marines for rapid operations and landings on some Iranian-controlled islands—islands used to provide fire cover for closing the strait.
Third Scenario
The third scenario focuses on the entry of special forces into Iranian territory with the aim of seizing stockpiles of enriched uranium. This option has previously been discussed in White House and Pentagon circles.
Iran's Reciprocal Threats
In response, Tehran has raised a set of retaliatory options in the event of a resumption of war, emphasizing its position on closing the Strait of Hormuz.
These options include targeting Israel and U.S. bases in the region with missiles and drones, as well as threatening energy facilities in countries allied with or supporting Washington.
Iran has also announced its readiness for any ground operation, and its military commanders believe that the entry of American forces into Iranian territory could provide an opportunity to inflict heavy casualties on them in unfamiliar terrain.
The possibility of tensions spreading to the Bab al-Mandab Strait has also been raised—an action that could extend the crisis to other vital maritime routes.
The War Powers Impasse
The War Powers Act in the United States requires the president to obtain explicit congressional authorization to continue overseas military operations after 60 days.
Accordingly, as of Friday, May 2, this deadline has expired, leaving Donald Trump facing a legal requirement: either obtain congressional authorization or halt military operations.
This federal law was passed in 1973 with the aim of limiting the U.S. president's power to unilaterally enter foreign wars.
To grant authorization to continue the war against Iran, both the House of Representatives and the Senate must pass a joint resolution on the matter by a simple majority.
However, in the past, some U.S. presidents have circumvented this law and continued military operations by relying on other justifications.
**************
End/ 345E
