AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Danny Citrinowicz, an analyst of West Asian affairs and a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations, following the remarks of Donald Trump, the President of the United States, that he would not accept Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations to end the war, analyzed in a message on his X account, "After all that Iran's governance has been through, Washington should not assume that Tehran is ready to offer more concessions simply because pressure continues."
Citrinowicz continued, "This situation leaves a much more dangerous question; not, of course, the question of whether Iran will seek to increase the cost of the current situation, but rather how far it is willing to go."
This Zionist analyst, who has a long history of activity in the intelligence-security sector of the Zionist regime's army, said, "Donald Trump has taken a big gamble. By rejecting Iran's latest proposal, he risks reinforcing Tehran's conclusion that Washington has no intention of returning to the framework of the June memorandum of understanding (the end-of-war memorandum) with conditions that Iran considers acceptable."
According to this analyst, that agreement to end military operations had stipulated arrangements for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, reducing sanctions, and resuming negotiations.
Citrinowicz believes, "From Tehran's perspective, maintaining the status quo is not very strategically rational. If diplomacy cannot restore what Iran believes it was promised, Iranian officials have an incentive to create more pressure so that Washington faces a more difficult choice."
Trump's Dilemma Becomes More Complex
He added, "This is where Trump's dilemma becomes increasingly complicated. The administration can continue to apply pressure and accept the risk of provoking a broader escalation by Iran, or it can seek a diplomatic formula that Tehran can present as a tangible change in the status quo. What increasingly appears difficult is maintaining the current level of pressure indefinitely while expecting Iran to simply accept the costs."
This Israeli analyst says, "Iran is unlikely to make things easy for Trump so that he can claim a unilateral victory. Tehran's goal will be to show that more American pressure produces more cost for America, not Iran's surrender."
Citrinowicz concluded, "This situation provides the conditions for a dangerous cycle of escalation; Washington believes more pressure puts it in a better bargaining position, while Tehran believes more escalation is necessary to force Washington back toward an acceptable agreement. In such circumstances, avoiding another round of escalation will be increasingly difficult."
Following the mediation of Pakistan and Qatar, Iran and the United States signed the Islamabad Memorandum on June 17. According to Article 5 of this memorandum, Iran committed to providing the necessary arrangements to facilitate the safe passage of ships.
Iran immediately began technical negotiations with the Sultanate of Oman with the aim of implementing this commitment and returning maritime traffic to the pre-war level. During the two weeks following the implementation of the memorandum, maritime traffic returned to about 60 percent of the pre-war level.
However, subsequent unilateral actions by America, including the violation of the Iranian arrangements stipulated in the memorandum for maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and its military action, disrupted and halted the implementation of the memorandum. The United States, instead of using the dispute resolution mechanism provided for in the memorandum, resorted to military aggression.
According to Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, Tehran "has kept the door of diplomacy open and has continuously and in good faith participated in negotiations over the past two years."
Araghchi, referring to the approach of Donald Trump's administration in dealing with Iran, said, "The United States has responded with bad faith every time and, instead of diplomacy, has resorted to military aggression. These experiences have created deep mistrust toward resuming negotiations without receiving credible guarantees to prevent the repetition of such actions."
Iran's Foreign Minister, who met with Steve Witkoff, the senior negotiator of the US President, and representatives of mediating countries during the UN General Assembly meeting, explained about Iran's seven-day plan, "Iran has conveyed a specific seven-day plan to the United States through Qatar. If the necessary conditions are provided, the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened and normal maritime traffic can resume within seven days."
Iran's Foreign Minister, in reaction to the US President's remarks about this proposed plan, also stated, "We saw the first reaction from the US President, but nothing has been conveyed to us yet from the mediators. The US President has also made many contradictory statements, which unfortunately are heard a lot from him. We are waiting for the definitive opinions to be conveyed to us by the intermediaries, and we will decide based on that. In any case, our conditions are clear, and any forward movement to open the Strait of Hormuz is conditional on the realization of these conditions, and we will not back down from them."
Araghchi emphasized, "Our enemies have also tried all paths; every path they could, they took and did not reach a result. There will be no way other than a negotiated solution, based on honor and justice and securing the rights of the Iranian people and meeting their legitimate demands. Only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. This is our position."
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