AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The statements of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, made during a meeting with Iranian champions and medalists in global and international competitions, were widely covered by regional and international media.
The Leader’s emphasis on the U.S. president’s “fantasy” about “destroying Iran’s nuclear industry,” as well as his reference to the domestic situation in the United States following widespread protests against Trump, received particular attention from international observers and media outlets.
In this context, Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington D.C.–based consulting firm, and Adjunct Assistant Professor at Georgetown University, spoke with ABNA about the dimensions of the Leader’s statements concerning the domestic situation in the United States, U.S. President Donald Trump’s baseless claims in service of the Zionist regime, and the current state of Iran’s international relations amid the expiration of the nuclear agreement.
ABNA: Two days ago, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran made important statements that received significant media attention, especially in the United States. How do you evaluate the recent statements of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution to US President Donald Trump regarding his false claims to pull Zionists out of despair?
Cafiero: I believe that the Leader of the Islamic Revolution is aware that the United States suffers from high levels of political polarization amid the era of Trump 2.0. People all over the world took note of the “No Kings” protests that recently took place all over America, showcasing strong opposition to the second Trump presidency on the part of liberal and progressive elements inside the United States. Iran’s leadership is reminding Trump that he has many concerns on the domestic front and that the White House would be wise to focus its energy inward rather than seeking to escalate tensions with Iran in the service of Israeli interests.
ABNA: Given the European Three's activation of the trigger mechanism, what will happen from now on? Can Iran have a normal nuclear program?
Cafiero: As a consequence of the E3’s actions against Iran, I expect Tehran to lose hope in the idea that negotiating with the West can lead to productive outcomes. At the same time, I assume that the restoration of the UN’s pre-2015 sanctions on Iran will lead to Israel feeling increasingly emboldened and confident about what Tel Aviv believes is the “legitimacy” of Israeli military aggression against Iran. Within this context, any Iranian moves to advance its nuclear program will remain vulnerable to future military operations by the Israelis.
ABNA: Given the opposition of Russia and China, as permanent members of the Security Council, on the one hand, and 120 member states of the Non-Aligned Movement, on the other, to the reimposition of sanctions against Iran, how do you view international engagement with Iran from now on?
Cafiero: I think Russia and China will disregard the recently reimposed UN sanctions on Iran, dismissing the “snapback” mechanism as no longer relevant, mindful of the West’s moves, which completely sabotaged and delegitimized the JCPOA. Within this context, Iran will become further aligned geopolitically with Moscow and Beijing, accelerating a trend that has been in motion for years. As this trend continues, it will be important to see how non-Western institutions such as BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are increasingly factoring into Tehran’s foreign policy agenda.
ABNA: What will Iran's relationship with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) look like from now on?
Cafiero: I believe that it is safe to assume that Iran will not seek cooperation with the IAEA now. Given the IAEA’s record and the 12-Day-War that shook the Middle East in June 2025, Iran will conclude that its national interests are best served by making its nuclear activities opaquer and not operating transparently in cooperation with the IAEA.
