AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): An analytical report published by RIA Novosti, in a sharp tone, described optimistic narratives about the rapid end of conflicts and stabilization of global markets as a "brazen lie" and warned that the economic consequences of this crisis could afflict a wide swath of societies.
The report, criticizing a segment of public opinion that considers the situation in Western countries as a "correct model," emphasized that current developments in the United States more closely resemble "a scene from the Titanic" than a sign of stability, with Donald Trump standing on the "economy's deck" while markets are swayed by false euphoria. According to the analysis, stock indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are setting records while crises such as the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and global supply chain instability are being ignored.
According to the report, Western media also acknowledge that investors have placed their confidence in markets based on the assumption that the Middle East crisis will be short-lived, and that the belief has taken hold that Trump will back down under economic pressure—a concept referred to as "TACO" (Trump Finally Caves). For example, in April 2025, Trump's imposition of sweeping tariffs was followed just days later by the announcement of a 90-day pause, leading to a historic stock market surge.
The analysis further states that Trump's recent promises about an "unprecedented reduction in energy prices" following the end of tensions with Iran lack real substantiation. According to a report by the German Economic Institute (IW), the German economy is facing its longest crisis in two decades, and Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, has also spoken of the risk of commodity rationing in the European Union. Additionally, Henry Paulson, former U.S. Treasury Secretary, has warned of a potential crisis in the U.S. government bond market.
Citing a joint statement by institutions including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank, the report emphasizes that the ongoing war has produced one of the largest supply shocks in the oil market, and that even if vital routes such as the Strait of Hormuz are reopened, returning to previous conditions will be time-consuming and accompanied by sustained price increases.
In the final section, analytical sources including Recorded Future and Euro Perspectives outline more pessimistic scenarios, according to which even a ceasefire will not mean the end of the crisis, and disruption to global trade, increased energy costs, and market instability will continue. In this regard, Anna-Kaisa Ikonen, head of energy at the European Commission, stated, "We should not have the illusion that this crisis will be short-lived; it will not."
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