AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecasts for global economic growth due to the sharp increase in energy prices resulting from the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, and has warned that the world is moving toward a worse scenario—a scenario that would be accompanied by much weaker growth and disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to a report by Al Jazeera, the intense atmosphere of uncertainty surrounding the war against Iran has cast a shadow over the meeting of officials in Washington during the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. At this meeting, the IMF presented three possible scenarios for economic growth, including a baseline scenario, a bad scenario, and a very severe scenario (worst-case scenario), with the occurrence of each depending on how the war progresses.
The Financial Times reported that IMF estimates indicate that if oil prices remain at $100 per barrel or higher this year, the global economy will move toward the largest recession since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the chief economist of the IMF, announced that recent developments have increased oil prices and moved the world closer to the bad scenario.
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