AhlulBayt News Agency: While Washington remains preoccupied with nuclear negotiations, “Israeli” military officials are sounding alarms over what they perceive as the real threat: Iran’s rapidly advancing ballistic missile program.
Closed-door discussions between senior “Israeli” military officers and US counterparts reveal that Iran continues to expand production at a remarkable pace, and could possess at least 5,000 ballistic missiles by the end of 2027.
According to “Israeli” sources, without disruption operations carried out during “Operation Rising Lion” in June 2025, that figure might have approached 8,000 missiles by the end of the decade.
Far from theoretical, these projections are described by “Israeli” planners as working assessments guiding daily operations across Military Intelligence, the Air Force and air defense units.
“Israeli” sources note that Iran currently produces roughly 100 ballistic missiles per month, with output expected to increase, relying on sheer volume to overcome even multilayered air defense systems such as Arrow, David’s Sling and Iron Dome, which “Israel” admits have limited capacity against sustained barrages.
During Operation Rising Lion, Iran reportedly launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and about 1,000 drones toward “Israel” over several days. Even according to “Israeli” accounts claiming 86% of missiles were intercepted and 99% of drones shot down, some penetrated defenses, causing damage in “Tel Aviv”, “Ramat Gan”, “Bat Yam”, Haifa and “Soroka” Medical Center in “Ber Sheva” [Bir Sabee].
The scale of Iran’s strike left “Israel” scrambling, forcing a shift from a defensive posture to an offensive campaign described as “missile hunting,” with long-range air strikes targeting mobile launchers and missile infrastructure inside Iran.
“Israeli” sources claim approximately 120 mobile launchers and 35 production sites and ammunition depots were destroyed during these strikes. Yet even they admit there is no airtight solution to the threat of thousands of missiles. Layered defenses and early warning systems may reduce damage, but they cannot eliminate the danger posed by Iran’s strategic buildup.
Many of the missiles currently produced by Iran use liquid fuel rather than solid fuel, reflecting challenges imposed by sanctions, yet production continues at an impressive pace. “Israeli” officials acknowledge privately that despite their efforts, Iran’s missile program continues to grow, demonstrating resilience and strategic depth.
“Israeli” planners also stress that the threat is not limited to their own territory. According to their assessments, Iran’s missiles could constrain US operational freedom in the region and target bases and allies — a prospect that has heightened anxiety within both Tel Aviv and Washington.
Despite Washington’s focus on diplomacy, “Israeli” officials admit that gaps remain too wide for a comprehensive agreement to address Iran’s missile program.
Even under economic pressure and internal challenges, Iran appears to channel resources into sustained military deterrence. Far from weakening under strain, Tehran has accelerated missile production as part of a deliberate strategy, leaving “Israel” scrambling to counter what it sees as an unstoppable advancement.
According to “Israeli” accounts, even if military action fails to topple Iran’s government, the Islamic Republic’s missile program continues to strengthen, combining production efficiency, technological resilience, and strategic deterrence — forcing “Israel” and its allies into reactive measures rather than dictating the balance.
/129
Your Comment