Ahlul Bayt (AS) International News Agency — ABNA: Nearly six months into an escalating confrontation with the United States, a prominent political analyst in Tehran, Syed Kumail Naqvi argues that events unfolding across the region mirror a Quranic prophecy about the collapse of seemingly invincible powers.
The reference, drawn from the second verse of Surah Al-Hashr, describes the expulsion of the Jewish Banu Nadir tribe from Medina in the 7th century—an outcome that contemporaries deemed impossible given the tribe's fortified positions and established power.
Naqvi opens his analysis by invoking the verse's central theme:
مَا ظَنَنْتُمْ أَنْ يَخْرُجُوا
You did not think they would leave.
He explains that this is a portion of the second verse of Surah Al-Hashr, in which the Lord refers to the incident of Banu Nadir and their expulsion from Medina. The People of the Book who resided in Medina had enjoyed a position of power there for centuries. For many people, even the very thought that they might one day be expelled from Medina was extremely difficult to imagine.
The full verse reads:
هُوَ الَّذِي أَخْرَجَ الَّذِينَ كَفَرُوا مِنْ أَهْلِ الْكِتَابِ مِنْ دِيَارِهِمْ لِأَوَّلِ الْحَشْرِ ۚ مَا ظَنَنْتُمْ أَنْ يَخْرُجُوا وَظَنُّوا أَنَّهُمْ مَانِعَتُهُمْ حُصُونُهُمْ مِنَ اللَّهِ فَأَتَاهُمُ اللَّهُ مِنْ حَيْثُ لَمْ يَحْتَسِبُوا...
(Surah Al-Hashr, Verse 2)
He is the One Who drove out the disbelievers among the People of the Book from their homes at the first gathering. You did not think they would leave, and they thought their fortresses would protect them from Allah. But Allah came upon them from where they did not expect...
A recurring mindset
Naqvi notes that since February 2026, a similar situation has existed among many Muslims across the world, especially in Iran and Pakistan, and unfortunately, for some, it continues to this day.
"In our own time," he writes, "we see with our own eyes that even people of faith sometimes fall prey to such a mentality. Many did not believe that Iran could endure even a few days against America, while now nearly six months have passed since this confrontation began."
He acknowledges that many have now gradually come to understand the reality of the situation, but insists that this portion of the verse still speaks to a large number of people in the Islamic world, particularly in Iran.
"It speaks to those who saw with their own eyes the fall of the Pahlavi monarchy, witnessed America's expulsion from Iran, and saw the defeat of Iraq's Ba'athist regime; yet even so, it remains difficult for them to accept the reality that one day America too will depart from this region."
"It is as if this verse is telling them," Naqvi continues, "just as in the past you could not imagine the end of certain events, today too it is difficult for you to believe that one day America will be driven out of this region."
He draws a direct parallel to the time of the Holy Prophet ﷺ, noting that Banu Nadir and other conspiratorial elements relied on their power, fortifications, and seemingly solid position — but the Qur'an tells us that a fate they could not even imagine eventually befell them.
Leadership and steadfastness
Naqvi acknowledges that "there is a leadership, and a sincere nation stands alongside this leadership — even if their numbers are few. They believe in this truth that conditions do not remain the same forever, and the current balance of power is not going to last forever either."
Economic hardship acknowledged — but not defeat
The analyst does not shy away from the severity of Iran's current situation.
"Yes, it is true that the problems are extremely severe," he writes.
Inflation has risen dramatically.
The economy is in a very difficult state.
The people are under severe economic pressure.
"But humiliation is not among them," he insists.
Despite economic pressures, he argues, the people continue to live within their means, manage their families, and confront difficulties — "because the true Provider is Someone else. The Provider is not America."
"We ourselves witness these conditions," Naqvi writes. "We see the effects of inflation and feel the pressure on the people, but alongside all this, we also see steadfastness."
He acknowledges that "a segment of society is deeply dissatisfied" and that "economic pressure affects nearly everyone" — but cautions that "it is not correct to regard every hardship as a sign of defeat, nor every crisis as a sign of collapse."
The poetry of perseverance
Invoking the Urdu poetry of Muhammad Iqbal, Naqvi argues that difficulty itself can be a form of spiritual declaration:
تو نے پوچھی ہے امامت کی حقیقت مجھ سے
حق تجھے میری طرح صاحبِ اسرار کرے
ہے وہی تیرے زمانے کا امامِ برحق
جو تجھے حاضر و موجود سے بیزار کرے
موت کے آئینے میں تجھ کو دکھا کر رُخِ دوست
زندگی تیرے لیے اور بھی دشوار کرے
(You asked me the reality of Imamate —
May God make you possessor of its secrets like me.
The true Imam of your time is only he
Who makes you tire of the present and the apparent,
Who shows you the face of the Beloved in death's mirror,
And makes life even more difficult for you.)
"So if life becomes more difficult," Naqvi writes, "perhaps this very difficulty is the declaration of loyalty."
Response to 'critics'
Naqvi then turns to address critics — "a group of trend-following intellectuals and so-called 'intellectuals'" — who dismiss such analysis as "merely emotional consolations with no connection to the real world and ground reality."
His response is sharp: "Take your intellect and ground reality and refer back to that Taghuti system which, despite employing all its capacity, has still not been able to eliminate its own humiliation and defeats."
He points out that even from a material perspective, that system is facing increasing pressures. Its allies and partners are also grappling with their own problems. America itself is asking its allies to increase their defense spending, and in Europe, serious concerns are being raised about defense capabilities and weapons stockpiles.
The true price of survival
Naqvi does not deny the severity of Iran's economic crisis.
"Yes, it is also a reality that the value of the dollar in Iran has increased unprecedentedly. Economic problems are a bitter and serious reality, and they cannot be ignored."
But he concludes with another verse from Iqbal:
اے طائرِ لاہوتی! اُس رزق سے موت اچھی
جس رزق سے آتی ہو پرواز میں کوتاہی
(O celestial bird! Death is better than that sustenance
That brings shortcomings in your flight.)
"The issue," Naqvi writes in closing, "is not merely how much money we have in our pockets today; the issue is: at what price do we want to remain alive?"
"If comfort and ease come at the price of sacrificing our freedom, dignity, independence, and principles, then the issue is no longer merely economic welfare; rather, the issue is what price we pay for our flight."
Seyyed Kamil Naqvi is a political analyst based in Tehran. The views expressed in this article are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of this publication.
(This analysis references events and conditions as of August 29, 2026)
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