Ahlul Bayt (AS) News Agency - ABNA: Recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the criminal war by the United States and the Zionist regime against Iran, have opened a new chapter in international relations and the balance of power in the region. Despite the initially declared objectives of the war, which began with the aim of so-called weakening the Islamic Republic of Iran's system and limiting its nuclear and missile programs, unexpected results have been achieved, and instead of weakening Iran, it has led to the strengthening of its regional position. Furthermore, the consequences of these developments have impacted the relations of US regional allies and the prospect of a new geopolitical order in Southwest Asia.
In this regard, David Pyne, a former US Army staff officer and national security strategist, in explaining the dimensions of the criminal attacks by the US and Israel against Iran and the success of the country's armed forces in responding to these attacks, told an ABNA correspondent: "The US Department of War has claimed that in the first 38 days of the war, at the height of intense bombings, it targeted 13,600 Iranian targets, and that Iran's air and missile defense was not very effective in countering these attacks. However, what is surprising is how ineffective the US airstrikes and missile attacks have been."
The baseless claims of the White House about Iran's military capabilities
US intelligence has assessed that Iran has retained 70% of its ballistic and cruise missiles, two-thirds of its air force, 60% of the IRGC's naval vessels, 90% of its underground missile launch and production facilities, and 91% of its coastal defense anti-ship missile bases. This intelligence also indicates that Iran has been able to revive its missile and drone production much faster than the US expected. This assessment completely contradicts the White House's claims that Iran's military capabilities have been reduced by 85 to 100 percent.
He further stated: Iran succeeded in using a Chinese military reconnaissance satellite - TEE-01B - gifted to Iran, to provide offensive targeting information to destroy several US military assets. This effectively enabled all of Iran's missiles and drones that were not shot down by hostile forces to accurately hit their intended targets. Iran also gained the ability to destroy or render unusable 13 to 16 US military bases in the Persian Gulf region, most of which are unlikely to ever be rebuilt.
Iran's victory in the missile and drone war of attrition
Pine continued: Iran has won the missile and drone war of attrition, meaning that the United States has expended its conventional offensive and defensive missile arsenal at a much faster rate than Iran. The United States has retained approximately 55% of its total long-range missile arsenal, while for Iran that figure is 70%. The fact is that Iran has a much larger missile stockpile than the United States, and has used only about 14-15% of its missiles during the war, with another 15-16% destroyed by US and Israeli airstrikes.
He emphasized: What Iran's military force has been able to prevent is any meaningful attempt by the US Navy to regain control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. US intelligence reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy possesses thousands of fast missile boats armed with short-range anti-ship cruise missiles and thousands of anti-ship missiles and drones that can be used to sink US Navy warships in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. This means that Iran has become the dominant power in the Persian Gulf region, and US warships may never attempt to return to the Persian Gulf.
America's failure to achieve its objectives
This former US army officer stated: The United States has failed to achieve any of its war objectives; while the US and Israel assassinated fifty Iranian political leaders and perhaps dozens of military commanders, Iran's Islamists remain fully in power, and the unnecessary US and Israeli war against Iran and the bombing attacks have caused Iranian citizens to support the system against them. Iran's nuclear program remains intact and has not been significantly weakened. Its ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones remain strong and capable of deterring future US and Israeli military attacks. Iran's military power remains fully preserved. Most of Iran's air force has survived the war. Iran lost eleven of its main surface fighters and perhaps a few of its submarines, so perhaps that was the biggest US military success. In short, Trump's war against Iran has helped strengthen Iran's Islamic system and increase its regional power status, while its army has not been weakened.
The war crime of the Minab school attack!
Regarding the crime of the missile attack on the Minab school, he said: Preliminary investigations by the US Department of War indicated that a US Tomahawk missile strike caused the martyrdom of 165 civilians in an Iranian elementary school, most of whom were Iranian girls. However, the final investigation results have not yet been released. The Trump administration has refused to apologize for the attack on innocent Iranian civilians, and we cannot determine whether the attack was intentional. It is possible that the attack was the fault of US artificial intelligence programming. However, if it was an intentional attack, it was certainly a war crime committed by the United States and should be condemned by the leaders of this country and the world.
The regional order has changed in Iran's favor
Regarding the formation of a new order in the region after the recent war, Pine said: Yes, as I predicted at the beginning of the war, the regional order has changed in Iran's favor. With the destruction of most US military bases in the Persian Gulf region by Iran, the United States must adapt to a future where it will no longer have a dominant military presence in the region. America's Gulf allies will now be motivated to pursue a policy of peaceful coexistence and cooperation with Iran, and perhaps greatly reduce their security cooperation with the United States to ensure that Iran does not attack their energy infrastructure again.
He added: Essentially, Israel is supposed to remain the regional hegemon in the western Middle East, while the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan have become the new joint regional hegemons in the central and eastern Middle East. According to reports, Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu sees Turkey, a NATO member state, as the next target, as the only remaining independent power in the western Middle East, but it is highly unlikely that the United States would support any Israeli military attack against it because Turkey is a NATO member state.
This strategist expert continued: This new regional world order in Southwest Asia is not necessarily in contradiction with the prominent national security strategy and national defense strategy published by the Trump administration months ago. They called for withdrawing some US military forces from Europe and the Middle East to refocus on the Western Hemisphere and, to a lesser extent, the Western Pacific, and called on Israel to take the lead in countering Iran in the Middle East without any direct US military intervention.
Unnecessary war with Iran
He said: The White House's decision to start an unnecessary war with the Islamic Republic of Iran was a major deviation from its stated national security strategy and must be corrected by a US military strategic reset that effectively withdraws all US military forces from Europe and the Middle East to focus on more immediate threats to US national security. It was the US military presence in the Middle East, along with its alliance with Israel, that dragged Washington into an unnecessary war with Iran, a war that could have been completely avoided otherwise. It is crucial for US national security to ensure that the country is never again pressured to participate in Israel's wars in the Middle East, because these wars have acted as a dangerous drain on the US economy and, more importantly, on its conventional military power, undermining our ability to deter potential Chinese aggression in the Western Pacific.
Deal and US national security interests!
Regarding the provisions of a potential agreement between Iran and the US and the possibility or impossibility of trusting the commitments of the US President, he said: President Trump has announced that he will lift the US naval blockade because the US and Iran are on the verge of signing a 60-day ceasefire memorandum of understanding. The provisions of this agreement are that Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore traffic through the strait to pre-war levels within thirty days. The US and Iran will agree to some kind of non-aggression pact. The war will end on all fronts, including Lebanon. Israel's decision to expand its military occupation of Gaza from 60 to 70 percent has not been raised as part of this agreement.
He added: Under these provisions, the US will release 6 to 12 billion dollars of Iran's blocked assets shortly after signing the agreement, and will lift US sanctions on Iran's oil and gas. According to reports, Iran has committed to diluting its 1000 pounds of enriched uranium and has agreed to a ten-year halt to nuclear enrichment. The Trump administration is also considering a 300 billion dollar investment fund to finance the reconstruction of critical infrastructure and civilian sites in Iran that were damaged or destroyed by the US and Israel during the war, which appears to be a form of reparations. Overall, the ceasefire agreement is a major victory for the Islamic Republic of Iran, but I also assess that this agreement advances US national security interests in ending this unnecessary war.
Trump needs an agreement
Pine said: It is understandable that Iran's leaders have little or no trust in Trump to adhere to any peace agreement. However, Trump has incentives to do so due to domestic political and economic pressures, as well as the US military's need to rebuild its depleted missile stockpiles, so I assess that he likely will adhere to any peace agreement with Iran that the US agrees to. As long as the US reaches a final agreement with Iran regarding limiting its nuclear weapons program that is acceptable to the White House, I believe the likelihood of future US military attacks on Iran will be greatly reduced.
US military capability has been severely weakened
He continued: The United States' ability to deter future Iranian missile attacks and project dominance over its neighbors, and most importantly, to prevent Iran from maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf for decades to come, has been severely weakened. Iran may be able to effectively deter future US military attacks by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz again. There is no reason for the US and Iran to remain enemies. We should all pray to God that this peace agreement is finalized and respected by all parties so that the US and Iran can live in peace in the future and put this unfortunate war behind us, as we pursue mutually beneficial joint efforts to normalize US-Iran diplomatic and trade relations.
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