ABNA24 - As the clashes escalate on the northern front of the Israeli regime, Hezbollah’s retaliatory attacks on the Israeli settlements have entered a new stage which is not limited to trade of fire with the Israeli regime, but is showing a strategic shift in the way resistance fighters are countering the Israeli occupation.
The expanded range of missile and drone operations, coupled with a sharper focus on northern areas in the occupied territories, has reinforced the notion that Hezbollah is redefining its deterrence model, one originally built on the famous “Dahiya-Haifa” equation.
Following the two-month war between Hezbollah and the Israeli army in 2024, this model became the cornerstone of the threat balance between the two sides. Under that framework, if the Israeli army strikes Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiya or Lebanon’s critical infrastructure, Hezbollah will retaliate by setting Haifa and key northern occupied territories ablaze. That mutual threat made Tel Aviv cautious in its calculations about any all-out war with Lebanon, knowing full well that its home front, especially in the north, is highly vulnerable.
But recent months show Lebanon’s resistance has arrived at a new understanding of deterrence. In this emerging model, simply landing a military blow in return is no longer enough. Instead, gradually eroding security, the economy, and social morale inside occupied territory has taken center stage. In other words, Hezbollah has concluded that keeping northern areas in a persistent state of insecurity and instability could generate more effective pressure than occasional deep strikes into the occupied territories.
The first driver behind this strategic rethink is the inherent vulnerability of the northern regions. Unlike Tel Aviv and central areas, which benefit from denser defense layers and greater strategic depth, northern settlements sit geographically close to Lebanon’s border, directly in the crosshairs of Hezbollah’s missiles and drones. That proximity shortens response times for air defense systems.
In such a situation, even limited strikes can leave a massive psychological impact. Hence, the main goal of many recent Hezbollah operations has not been physical damage alone, but rather creating a persistent sense of insecurity among northern residents, a reality where settlers feel that, even without an all-out war, an attack could come at any moment.
This sense of insecurity has gradually become part of the daily life of the settlers, imposing considerable psychological pressure on the Israeli community. In this conditions, thousands of Israelis, fearing Hezbollah attacks, pass hours of day in underground shelters, something disrupting their daily life.
Displacement of settlers
One of the most important consequences of this situation is considerable displacement of the Israelis internally. Over the past months, thousands of settlers residing in border settlements have left their homes. This is not just a social crisis, but a political and social one. Avichai Stern, mayor of Kiryat Shmona as the most affected settlement, referred to the settlers fleeing the war and missile attacks, saying that "with this situation, even ten people will not stay. This is the first time on the history of Israel a city is evacuated."
Hezbollah leaders, including the martyred secretary-general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, repeatedly made this point in their speeches: in an all-out war with the Israeli enemy, hundreds of thousands of settlers would be displaced. Today, the northern regions are showing early signs of that scenario slowly becoming reality.
The displacement of northern settlers works as a reciprocal response to the pressure Israel has for years inflicted on the people of southern Lebanon, especially in southern outskirts, known locally as Dahiya, the bastion of Hezbollah. Tel Aviv always tried to squeeze Lebanese civilians by threatening to wipe out residential areas. Now, the resistance has turned that same equation back onto occupied territory.
This matters because Israeli society is extremely sensitive to domestic security. A sense of instability and reverse migration could have consequences far beyond the battlefield, and could also shake Benjamin Netanyahu’s political legitimacy.
Political aspects of Hezbollah’s focus on northern regions of Israel
Another key dimension is the political crisis inside the Israeli regime. A significant portion of northern settlers belong to far-right extremist movements and are core supporters of Netanyahu’s cabinet. These groups played a major role in the last elections, helping the far-right coalition rise to power. Many key cabinet figures, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smortrich, have close ties to the settler movement.
In this context, the army’s failure to secure the north could drive a serious wedge through the cabinet. Netanyahu is now in a tight spot: far-right factions are pushing him to strike harder at Hezbollah, but plunging into an all-out war with Lebanon could saddle Tel Aviv with devastating costs. Lebanon’s resistance, by targeting the north, is not just looking for military damage, bit also it is trying to cause gaps between the army and the government, and also the cabinet’s political backers.
The social fallout is no less serious than the security and political angles. Housing tens of thousands of evacuees in central and southern areas as the Lebanon front stays active will pile enormous economic pressure on Israel. Rising housing demand, skyrocketing rents, strain on public services, and higher government spending are all part of the fallout.
At the same time, the heavy military costs of the Gaza war and regional conflicts have put Israel’s economy under double pressure. To cover security expenses and temporary housing for northern residents, the government will have to boost military spending and likely raise taxes, moves that could fuel public discontent.
Hezbollah knows full well that Israeli society is highly sensitive to economic and livelihood issues and reacts quickly to financial strain. That reality has been on full display over the past two years, with massive settler protests against Netanyahu’s policies and the economic toll of regional wars.
That is why part of the Hezbollah’s new strategy is to shift the war’s cost from the battlefield into Israelis’ daily lives. If the insecurity in the north persists, social and class divides inside occupied territories will only deepen.
Economic pressure
Beside these, we should not ignore the economic significance of the northern settlements. Regions like Galilee and Kiryat Shmona host a major part of Israel's agricultural output, livestock farming, and some of its industries and extended Hezbollah attacks and evacuation of the settlements will shut down farms and production lines abd therefore disrupt the supply chain.
Reports published in recent months shows a drop in the agricultural output and damage to some economic infrastructures. This can raise food prices and push up inflation, putting heavy strains on the Israeli economy as it already suffers from investment and capital flight and heavy war costs.
So Lebanon's resistance movement has concluded that Tel Aviv's weakest point is not just its military installations, but it is the fragility of Israeli society and its acute sensitivity to security and economic stability.
That said, this shift does not mean scrapping the Dahiya-Haifa equation altogether. Hezbollah still has the ability to strike deep into occupied territories, and that capability remains part of its deterrence power. What has changed is how it wields that power and prioritizes targets. This evolution stems from lessons Hezbollah has absorbed in recent years from direct wars, events in Gaza, and Israeli society's behavior.
In short, the Hezbollah's recent strikes on northern settlements are not just a military response to the Israeli regime's actions, but they are part of a deeper transformation in its deterrence doctrine. The main goal of this strategy is to trap Tel Aviv in a cycle of insecurity, economic pressure, and social tension. If sustained, that cycle could push the traditional "Haifa-Dahiya" equation into a new phase, one where the chronic insecurity of the occupied north becomes the resistance's most powerful lever.
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