Question: What are the characteristics and features of the new transitional situation to new international structures for countries such as Iran?
M. Khoshcheshm: We should not make mistakes or suffer from optical illusions. We must consider this a real process and make the most out of this opportunity, i.e. the transfer of power, which, in my opinion, will last for a decade and will be full of turmoil, tension, and global and regional disputes. This is so we can have a better position and a greater share in those groupings in the future. We are not empty-handed. Contrary to the fact that many people do not pay attention that although the Chinese are strong in the economic field, and the Russians are strong in their military and civilization war in Ukraine when we charged at the US like a gladiator four decades ago and caused its plans to fail in our region, the Chinese and Russians were trying to be matadors at that time. In other words, they tried to dodge the American bull by shouting at it. The US has forced Russia to become a gladiator in the Ukraine war. In the Taiwan Strait, you’ll soon see that it will force the Chinese to be gladiators too.
So, when we were gladiators, they were matadors. They have now become gladiators themselves. We are the ones who broke America's horn in the region and shattered America's hegemony. We are the ones who challenged America's plans in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in the Resistance Front, in Lebanon, and in Syria. We made them fail. We are the ones who struck Ayn al-Asad, and shot down Global Hawk. We are the ones who have had the most success.
Therefore, in the future position of the world, the Chinese will require a powerful and influential ally and partner in West Asia for a region that has a market of 400 million people. And anyone who cooperates most with Iran will receive a better share and will be given more preference. From the beginning, especially after these regional proxy wars, Iran has proved that it is the superior power in the region and it has foiled the plans of the US and its allies.
So, with this kind of potential, it is expected that Iran will be one of the pillars of the main grouping in the emerging world order. And it can and it must be. The reason why Iran was quickly accepted into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization under the new administration was not because this administration is serious or because China and Russia realize that Iran has completely abandoned the Western-oriented view and is seriously looking toward the East. It’s not just that. They are seeing the future of the world and Iran’s contribution to the next groupings.
We are just at the beginning of this path. It must be guided correctly. We must have a correct and strategic design for our future and the world and the region. We’ve paid a lot for what we accumulated during the last 40 years. Most importantly, we stood up to the US. And now we should be able to have a much greater position, not just at the regional level, but at the level of global influence in the future, in the next 10 or 20 years. And this depends on being continuously active and present and having a correct roadmap as well as the right team at the governance level.
Question: If we want to be more precise about the West Asian region, we must include the Zionist regime in our analysis. How do you analyze the situation of the region with this equation?
M. Khoshcheshm: The Israelis essentially share the same strategic view as the Americans, especially when it comes to threats like Iran. Even though the tactics they use are different, they have learned how to share things with each other and how to make use of the differences and disunity [in the region].
An example of this is when the Americans came two years ago after their initial proposals and suggestions had not gotten anywhere. They suggested that Iran should return to fulfilling its JCPOA obligations without the US returning to it. They made some really ridiculous proposals which Iran did not accept. Here, the Israelis, who are always more radical, undertook acts of sabotage in order to make their threats more operational. In return, Iran responded by starting enriching uranium to 60 percent. So, they are part of the US strategy in the region.
For example, when the plan of the Americans failed during their prolonged 20-year presence in the West Asian region, Obama said they were so drawn to the Middle East that they completely neglected China, and China has grown rapidly in this vacuum. So, they went looking to the East, as it was Obama’s doctrine to move quickly in that direction. They came to the conclusion that a vacuum will be created here, and they should stop the progression of Iran’s power in the region. They know perfectly well that if America’s presence diminishes in this region, Iran will grow rapidly here. Therefore, they swapped America’s position here with Israel as the vanguard. In other words, the US’s presence should decrease in quantity and quality and it should move behind the scenes, while Israel moves to the front and becomes allies with the Arabs. It would expand, like an arrow, under the Abraham Accords to countries bordering the Persian Gulf and on our northern side in order to draw threats toward Iran.
Question: How are the threats made by the US and the Zionist regime against Iran different to the way they were in the past and what plan did they have for Iran?
M. Khoshcheshm: If the threats were military threats at one time, they have now turned into hybrid warfare in various fields minus the military. This includes security issues, starting with riots, psychological media war, sanctions, sabotage, bombings, and assassinations — it entails all of these things. Who carries them out? A major part of the assassinations and acts of sabotage are carried out by Mossad.
A major part of this work was supposed to be created by Israel and the Arabs. In the middle of all this, the main role was supposed to be played by the Israelis. They were supposed to expand like an arrow, with spy forces, which is official diplomacy stationed gradually in the Persian Gulf. It would start with establishing relations at first and move toward military relations. Diplomatic relations at first, followed by security and then the military field. What would they do in the military field? Battlecruisers. Of course, the Israeli navy minus a few nuclear submarines and these sorts of things are nothing compared to what Iran has.
Their goal was to send this equipment to the Persian Gulf so they could put these threats right next to us. The Israelis primarily use the Suez Canal for the passage of military ships. They would not come down from their own region in the Red Sea. They suddenly made such a decision and tested it twice within the framework of this plan. Twice they announced that they would send a fleet to go from the Red Sea to Bab al-Mandab, the Sea of Oman, and the Persian Gulf. What happened then? On the order of the Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, Major General Bagheri, the Iranian Navy deployed a flotilla at the exit point of the Red Sea with the official mission of confronting the Zionist regime. Where have they gone now? Turn around from the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman and go to Bab al-Mandab. From there go to the entrance of the Red Sea. It's really far from us. They returned there.
One of the main corridors consists of the world’s main straits. On two occasions the Israelis announced that they were going to send a fleet submarine. They did not dare do it. And afterward, they announced that “no, we did not send it.” They then announced that they had held a naval exercise with 20 or so Arab countries in the Red Sea. For what? “To keep the peace,” meaning that we want to cross the Iranian barrier. They weren’t able to cross it. The military plan that they had claimed has failed up until this point.
The Israelis see themselves surrounded by Iran from the north and west, so they sought to counteract it with threat and tension, that is, to put Iran inside the arrow that I mentioned, in a siege of terrorism, espionage activities, etc. They carried out a plan in the fall inside the country, but they were also after this in the spring and they did it but to no avail. In this puzzle, they first tried to confine Iran to its borders alongside tensions with its neighbors. They also attempted to weaken it internally in the hope of leaving its economy gasping for breath.
When this current [Iranian] administration took office, its main approach was that it looked to the east. And the first step to improve conditions in the field of foreign trade, which can also be achieved faster, is to expand relations with your neighbors. That is why in Mr. Raisi’s first press conference after winning the presidential elections, when there was still no administration or anything, and they asked him about the JCPOA, he said, “I will neither throw it away nor will it have any centrality; but with regards to Saudi Arabia, I am prepared to open the embassies right now.” This statement is from two years ago. Mr. Raisi has only just arrived and it’s his first press conference. Why [did he say that]? Because when you want to open the way for foreign trade, tensions should be reduced in the region.
Question: Has this regional policy and the government’s look toward the east been successful so far?
M. Khoshcheshm: Yes. Israel and the US are also seeing this. They are trying to prevent the Arab countries from expanding relations with Iran, but where have we achieved so far? In America's hybrid warfare, Israel produces some of its hardware. Its assassinations, acts of sabotage, and the wave of insecurity that you can create through proxy groups. You can even do it in a collusion with DAESH and its really obvious who created DAESH. Where does Netanyahu have a picture? When they were taking care of DAESH, Al-Nusra, and others in their hospitals in the Golan Heights and discharging them with pride. Where do we stand now?
With regard to our confrontation with Israel, it happens to be Israel that now finds itself in an intense siege. How? In the recent war that took place a few days ago, you saw the joint operation room of the Palestinian Resistance Front. That is, from the refugee camps in southern Lebanon to the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank and then inside the occupied territories, there were all kinds of missile operations — operations involving cars and vehicles, operations that took place successively. This was a test, not the main operation. When you decide to carry out an operation, you use your best equipment and your top people. It was a test to create unity in the common room of the Palestinian Resistance Front. The Israelis know this very well. The results are devastating for them.
Question: Considering the failures of the United States and the Zionist regime in their comprehensive, strategic goals in the region, what do you think their situation will be like among the Arab countries?
M. Khoshcheshm: They [the Israelis] had a strategy to come and capture Iran with the help of the Americans. Now, considering the story that happened regarding Saudi Arabia’s relations with Iran, this strategy has been severely damaged. In other words, who’s going to assist you [the Israelis] in this process now? Biden’s plan for the hybrid war in Iran last year, these recent actions, is military threat? The Americans have not been able to make threats for a long time now. One of the reasons it went to Saudi Arabia, one of its four reasons was to say that if, for example, you succeed in the negotiations, we will unite the Arabs and Israel within the framework of this plan, and we will strengthen your air defense system. That is what they’ve ended up resorting to.
Saudi Arabia immediately sent a message to us through one of the heads of state in the region, saying, “Our agenda is clear and we are not going to take the words of the Americans seriously.” Jordan and Egypt also officially announced in their media, their foreign ministers and others announced that we are not ready to destroy our relationship with Iran any more than this. So, now they have practically pulled themselves out of this puzzle considering what happened.
And from here on, the speed of expansion of their relations [with Israel] will slow down. As you can see, both Egypt and Jordan have reduced the level of their relations with Israel. That’s really important.
The Israelis themselves are saying that the movement of the countries that were normalizing relations with Israel has slowed down a lot, and the level of relations and the expansion of the relations they had has slowed down significantly. You see Israeli delegations going to a couple of Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and they refuse to let them come inside their countries. They refuse to grant them visas. This is not how Israel’s situation was last year or the year before.
Question: What is the situation like inside the Zionist regime?
M. Khoshcheshm: The situation inside the regime has never been so insecure. After the collapse of the Zionist regime governments, there have never been this many consecutive elections with the failure of all political parties. Whoever comes to create a government, fails. That means severe division and segregation and severe bipolarity. If 100 thousand people came out in protest in a country with 100 million people, that would be one-tenth of a percent. But in a country with only 5 million people, 200 thousand people in Tel Aviv and over 200 thousand people in other occupied cities came out in protest. That is about 400-500 thousand people, which is about 10 percent of the total population of the regime.
The bipolarity is so severe that their Channel 13 has put up a poll saying that Netanyahu cannot create a government and form a coalition right now. If a couple of their ministers leave, their coalition will fall apart again.
Meanwhile, they are also facing other problems, such as their economic numbers and figures which are not in their favor. All they need is probably a couple of sparks to lead their economy toward destruction. Wherever you are in the world, when there are strikes and protests, the country’s economic growth has to pay for it and it will create a great number of political problems.
Question: What do the Israelis themselves predict about this situation?
M. Khoshcheshm: All of these have caused Haaretz, which is the Israeli regime’s own publication, to print an article saying that there is only one regime in the region that may collapse and change, and that is Israel, not Iran. They have written that themselves.
By last Fall, they planned on weakening us by making us collapse from the inside, and they wanted to put us under a lot of tension from the outside. They knew there would be no collapse or change of governance here, but they wanted to weaken us. Now, they have reached a point where they face severe bipolarity from the inside, and unrest to the extent that just a few weeks ago, Netanyahu’s wife officially said that while she was at a hair salon, the protestors surrounded her and could have murdered her if they could break the lock. This means that you have no internal security.
Take a look at the discord that exists within the Israeli army, in Unit 8200. Many of them are officially announcing that they will go on strike and not come to work because of the situation that Netanyahu has created. It is the same in their other units as well. They had no choice but to use reserve units. It is constantly calling the reserve groups from these settlements because it sees that there is chaos and problems as well as war and tension on the borders and outside the occupied lands as far as the outside of Gaza and the West Bank.
It cannot provide security internally and operations against them are being easily carried out there. They have a problem with the security of protests within themselves. Israel is weaker than ever and their regional plans against the Islamic Republic of Iran have failed.
Of course, we should not be naive to think that, for example, the Zionist regime has fallen apart and so it’s all over now. No, this represents an opportunity for the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Resistance Front. We now have the upper hand and they have the lower hand. It was the same from the beginning, but there are times where it becomes very tangible for everyone. That is why the president of the Zionist regime came and said that we are on the brink of collapse. The former head of Israel's Internal Security Agency officially announced that they are collapsing and will not even reach their 80th anniversary. They themselves are saying that they will not reach their 80th anniversary. Their officials are saying that they will suffer a collapse between their 75th and 80th anniversary.
Question: Have these issues affected the process of migration to the occupied territories?
M. Khoshcheshm: Yes. You see, the reverse migration process is not a small matter for Israel. When you have been working with all the countries of the world for a long time and they have been encouraging the Jewish population to come to the occupied lands in order to increase the population there, and yet you see that the Arab population will be much larger than your Jewish population in the next few years, even though you moved them, killed them, and martyred them, you realize that being a minority is dangerous. You do everything you can to increase and grow your population.
Now, the reverse process of migration which makes people flee from this land and slowly understand how the situation is puts a very heavy toll on their economy, politics, and security. Furthermore, the younger population leaves even earlier because they want a better future for themselves.
In sum, these are all reasons for us to
realize that the United States and Israel’s plans, especially the
regional plans they have for us, are gradually failing strategically.
They have failed at the strategic level like a chess tactic. At the
operational level, they have also failed on the ground. We have paid a
lot in order to defeat our enemies. We paid the most but we also gained a
lot of points and were victorious in the security, political, and
economic fields.
Sayyid Mostafa Khoshcheshm is a Tehran-based, senior political analyst and academic whose views have been published in numerous journals. He has attended many TV programs and has taught at a number of Iranian universities and academic centers, including the International Relations Faculty of the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
(The views expressed in this interview are interviewee’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of ABNA24.com)
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