ABNA24 - The current friction between Iran and the United States has reached a diplomatic precipice. However, a full-scale military conflict remains unlikely; had the U.S. possessed the strategic will or the capacity to endure the fallout of a prolonged war, it would not have hesitated during previous escalations.
The U.S. called for a ceasefire only ten days after initiating hostilities against Iran. Had Washington been capable of sustaining the conflict, it likely would not have accepted Tehran’s 10-point document as a framework for negotiations.
The objectives of the war have been exhausted, and it did not achieve the outcome it sought, from overthrowing the Iranian government as a first option, to eliminating its capabilities as a second option, to creating unrest, chaos, the entry of militias, and the fragmentation of the country. In fact, the opposite occurred, as an additional card was added: the Strait of Hormuz card, which has become the strongest negotiating tool for Iran.
The current situation is in a diplomatic phase in which Iran holds more control than the United States. The U.S. naval blockade against Iran is very costly and cannot be sustained for long, especially without secure maritime access to its bases in the Persian Gulf. The fate of these bases has become uncertain, as they have proven ineffective and costly, and have become more of a leverage point in Iran’s hands than a tool against it.
Iran has refused to resume negotiations until the U.S. naval blockade is lifted under a mutually acceptable settlement regarding navigation in the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz. Subsequent stages would involve the inclusion of regional allies in potential agreements, followed by negotiations on nuclear issues. This would encompass enrichment limits and the fate of the 60% enriched stockpile, specifically its dilution under the supervision of the IAEA.
Therefore, this is a phase of intense diplomacy, with Iran holding the upper hand. This became clearly evident in President Trump’s handling after the first two-week ceasefire, as Iran refused to engage in talks unless the blockade was lifted.
Initially, they were prepared, mentioning sending JD Vance, then discussing Kushner and Witkoff, on the basis that Abbas Araghchi was leading the round, but Iran rejected this unless the blockade was lifted. This is because Iran does not want negotiations to focus on preliminary issues rather than core matters.
The core issues include arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, compensation to Iran, inclusion of allies in agreements, and the nuclear file. Iranian diplomacy is moving in several directions. This includes securing international backing from Russia and reaching an understanding with Oman, a coastal state, since Oman and Iran are the two countries directly responsible for regulating passage.
Iran has effectively entrusted this matter to Oman as a friendly and non-hostile state, even though Oman was not originally expected to have any role in controlling passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This is aimed at establishing safe navigation once and for all by placing control in the hands of the coastal states, and ensuring safe passage for non-hostile powers that do not use transit as a means of aggression.
Russia, as an ally of Iran, is involved in many areas, including technology, exchange of expertise and weapons, intelligence, regional cooperation between neighboring countries, international backing in the UN Security Council, and the nuclear issue. It is worth mentioning that Russia was a key signatory to the JCPOA agreement that was killed by Trump in his first administration. Russia can play an important role in this domain, especially given the close relationship between Putin and Trump.
As for Pakistan, its selection as a broker was successful because it is a major Islamic country, it is a nuclear power and has good relations with Persian Gulf countries.
Relations with Pakistan help counter sectarian strife, strengthen Pakistan’s international standing, and position it as an influential Islamic nuclear state in shaping regional affairs, considering that regional security is an international responsibility.
Therefore, Ayatollah Sayed Mojtaba Khamenei's choice of Pakistan was highly successful, as it can serve as a strategic Muslim ally with strong influence in the region and meaningful ties with Persian Gulf states, helping to achieve regional security solutions under the sponsorship of regional countries.
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