AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): As escalating tensions between Washington, D.C., and Tehran continue, a number of strategic assessments have raised the possibility of a renewed U.S. military strike against Iran in the near future. Speculation suggests that potential military action could occur in the coming days or following the conclusion of the holy month of Ramadan, further intensifying the already sensitive political and security environment across the region.
These assessments emerge amid visible signs of heightened military activity in recent months, including expanded U.S. force deployments near Iran and reciprocal military signaling by Tehran. The deployment of U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups in surrounding waters, alongside Iranian naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, has underscored rising operational readiness on both sides.
U.S. Conventional Superiority in Classical Warfare
Military analyses indicate that the United States maintains overwhelming superiority in conventional warfare domains. Its extensive defense budget, global network of military bases, regional alliances, and advanced intelligence and operational capabilities constitute the principal pillars of Washington’s military advantage.
U.S. aircraft carriers, including the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), operating as part of carrier strike groups, provide sustained air superiority and precision-strike capabilities. Meanwhile, the U.S. Air Force retains the ability to conduct continuous large-scale operations from regional bases located in Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.
Missile defense systems such as THAAD, Patriot missile system, and Aegis Combat System have also been deployed to intercept potential ballistic threats. However, operational experience during the June 2025 confrontations demonstrated that interceptor missile inventories may be rapidly depleted under conditions of large-scale saturation attacks.
Additionally, the Pentagon benefits from extensive situational awareness capabilities through satellites, unmanned aerial systems, cyber assets, and reconnaissance aircraft operating across both operational and strategic levels.
Limitations in Prolonged Conflict Scenarios
Despite these advantages, analysts emphasize that U.S. military superiority is largely optimized for short-duration “shock and awe” operations. In the event of a prolonged conflict, overall effectiveness could diminish. The experience of the War in Afghanistan (2001–2021), which ended with a costly and widely criticized withdrawal, continues to shape American public opinion.
Domestic political willingness within the United States to enter another large-scale Middle Eastern conflict has declined following decades of expensive military engagements. Economic costs associated with a new war, particularly if global energy markets are disrupted, could place additional strain on the U.S. economy and further weaken domestic support.
Iran’s Asymmetric Deterrence Strategy
In contrast, Iran has spent years developing an asymmetric deterrence doctrine aimed at imposing substantial costs on any potential aggressor without requiring conventional battlefield superiority.
Control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 to 25 percent of global oil and liquefied gas shipments transit, remains one of Tehran’s most significant strategic levers. Iran’s naval forces employ rapid-deployment tactics, swarm operations using fast attack craft, naval mines, and low-cost unmanned systems capable of disrupting traffic through this critical maritime corridor.
In the missile domain, Iran possesses one of the largest ballistic arsenals in the Middle East. Precision-guided short- and medium-range missiles are assessed to be capable of targeting nearly all U.S. bases across the region. During the 12-day confrontation of June 2025, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones, demonstrating an ability to saturate advanced air-defense networks. Missiles such as Fattah-1 and Fattah-2, presented by Iran as hypersonic systems, have drawn particular international attention.
Military analysts note that even amid debate over the hypersonic classification of these systems, maneuverable reentry vehicles can significantly complicate interception efforts by U.S. and allied missile defenses. The extensive use of mobile launchers and hardened underground facilities further enhances Iran’s survivability and sustained retaliatory capacity.
Regional Actors and Geographic Factors
Beyond domestic capabilities, Iran’s network of regional partners is viewed as an element of indirect deterrence. Armed groups operating in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen could exert pressure on U.S. logistical lines and strategic interests across multiple fronts in the event of conflict.
Iran’s mountainous terrain, vast territorial depth, and sizable population further complicate prospects for any large-scale ground invasion or attempts at political regime change. Many observers argue that the survival of Iran’s political structure during wartime would itself constitute a strategic setback for Washington.
Outlook
Overall assessments suggest that although the United States would likely enjoy escalation dominance during the initial phase of a conflict and could inflict substantial damage, Iran’s asymmetric capacity to prolong hostilities and transform confrontation into a war of attrition raises serious doubts about Washington’s ability to achieve decisive political objectives.
At the same time, any disruption to oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf could trigger sharp increases in global energy prices, producing far-reaching consequences for the international economy. While mutual deterrence continues to function as a restraining factor against direct war, sustained tensions and potential miscalculation risk pushing the region toward an increasingly volatile and unpredictable phase.
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