ABNA24 - Despite the ceasefire between Israeli regime and Lebanon, the situation on the northern borders of the Israeli regime is highly combustible. The recent developments and heightened tensions between Israeli military and Hezbollah forces have shown that this truce is fragile and risk of a rejuvenated comprehensive war is growing more serious every moment. Despite the fact that Hezbollah stresses its commitment to the terms of the deal to steer clear of an all-out crisis, the far-right Israeli cabinet is pushing the tensions to their height.
Reports indicate that Netanyahu has recently ordered an escalation of strikes into Lebanese territory, a move that could shatter the fragile ceasefire for good and plunge the region deeper into a quagmire of instability. These developments raise fundamental questions about the future of stability along the northern borders of the occupied territories, and whether Tel Aviv truly intends to halt its war machine.
The current instability can be traced back to the flawed calculations and miscalculations of Netanyahu’s cabinet. The mindset prevailing in Tel Aviv is one of stubbornly pursuing a costly path, with the recent failure in the war against the Axis of Resistance, which Hezbollah is a key part of, serving as a key driver behind this new adventure on the northern borders with Lebanon. Contrary to Tel Aviv’s expectations, these confrontations have not impaired Hezbollah, but also the movement now stands in a stronger position militarily and in terms of deterrence.
Over the past two years, the Israeli regime has tried to weaken Hezbollah’s position and ultimately eliminate it from Lebanon’s political and military equation through a combination of military action and US-backed political pressure on Beirut. But none of these efforts have produced the outcome Tel Aviv hoped for.
Given that the 66-day war in 2024 failed to push Hezbollah back to the Litani River, Tel Aviv’s initial calculations this time assumed that simultaneous conflict with Iran could provide a golden opportunity to deal a serious blow against Hezbollah. Instead, the tide turned in the opposite direction: Hezbollah stood powerfully against its Israeli enemy, and the firing of thousands of rockets and drones into occupied territories set a new record in the history of the arch-enemies.
Following this Israeli setback, now the situation on the northern front is more complicated than before. Actually, Netanyahu is returning to the war scenario to make sure that Hezbollah is weakened and to define and introduce a new deterrence equation aimed at returning the Israeli settlers displaced from homes in the north as a result of Hezbollah attacks. Still, such a scenario is wrapped in major risks as Hezbollah is currently holding considerable missile and drone power and any massive attack will be met with a powerful response.
Israel scuttling US-Iran deal
Since halting the war in Lebanon was a key term in the recent Tehran-Washington truce, Netanyahu’s cabinet is now sabotaging the ceasefire. By escalating the crisis on the northern front, Tel Aviv hopes to derail the entire regional deal and knock it off course.
Domestic and international pressure is mounting on Washington to de‑escalate. A growing share of the US public, and even some of US political elites, believes these wars serve Israel’s interests, not US’s, and that Washington should stay out. That makes a move by Trump toward even a limited deal increasingly likely, a source of serious worry for Israel. The Israelis fear that in any future talks, their security concerns will be completely sidelined. That is why Tel Aviv is now doubling down on Lebanon. Netanyahu wants to ramp up the violence, sabotage diplomacy, and block a Tehran‑Washington accord at all costs.
Israel’s worry is that a future Iran‑US deal could permanently drop the issue of Iran's non-state allies. The Trump administration, for its part, seems laser‑focused on the nuclear case and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, an approach that directly clashes with Netanyahu’s demands. Tel Aviv knows full well that once any deal is signed, Tehran and its allies could end up in a stronger position, and that is exactly what Israel is struggling to prevent.
In the eyes of Israeli leaders, bolstered Hezbollah capacities and capabilities can broaden the movement's threats to the Israeli occupation. That is why the Israelis prefer going to harder ways like military and security pressures over succumbing over such a scenario.
Netanyahu's home challenges
Beside foreign factors, Israel's home conditions present a determining factor in resorting to warmongering approaches. Pressure from cabinet hardliners and settlers for full-scale war against Hezbollah to restore security to the northern regions, while Netanyahu is battered by political crises and corruption cases, have increasingly put the PM on a shaky ground.
This situation means that entering a new conflict in Lebanon could serve as a tool to preserve cabinet cohesion and shift public attention away from domestic issues and toward external threats. Tel Aviv has used this tactic before. Its leaders have a track record of exploiting foreign crises to manage internal challenges at critical junctures. The chances of them doing it again are extremely high.
On the other side of the battlefield, the tide in Lebanon has turned against Tel Aviv as well. The strategy of pressuring Hezbollah through direct negotiations with the Lebanese government has hit a dead end. The Western-leaning, anti-resistance factions in Beirut's cabinet have failed to push through the agenda dictated by the Israeli-American camp.
Resistance leaders have stated clearly and bluntly that disarmament is a red line they will never cross. They flatly reject any direct dialogue with their Israeli enemy. The culmination of this defiance came in Sheikh Naim Qassem's latest statement, delivered in an unusually sharp and unambiguous tone. He dismissed the Beirut government's maneuvers as irrelevant to Hezbollah, insisting that the flag of resistance will remain raised, indifferent to political games, and that they will never hand their weapons over to their Israeli enemy.
So, resolute Hezbollah warnings and public support to it have shattered the potency of the political pressure scenario. So, if the clashes erupt afresh, Hezbollah will be in a better position and can pose more serious threats to Israeli regime, as it did over the past two months ago, so much so that the Israeli media have expressed serious concern about new Hezbollah achievements in the area of producing drones operated by fiber-optics, arguing that if an all-out war breaks out, Hezbollah is capable of landing major blows to Tel Aviv.
Experience has proven that military attacks have not only failed to cripple Hezbollah capabilities, but also the movement's fighters emerge more battle-honed and seasoned from any confrontation, and therefore if Israel once again dreams of waging war on Lebanon, it should expect a convoy of coffins headed to Tel Aviv from the northern front.
/129
Your Comment