AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Signs of a potential new global nuclear arms race have begun to emerge following the suspension of nuclear arms control limitations between the United States and Russia, a development that could push Europe, East Asia, and parts of the Middle East toward pursuing nuclear weapons capabilities.
According to reports, the possible development of new nuclear weapons or the resumption of nuclear testing by the United States after the expiration of the New START agreement could trigger reciprocal responses from Russia and China. Analysts warn that such actions may encourage European and East Asian countries to pursue more independent nuclear programs.
Rising nuclear debate in Europe
In this context, political debate in Germany over nuclear deterrence has intensified. A prominent German politician from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) previously stated that the country “needs nuclear weapons,” a remark that drew criticism and condemnation from other political figures.
Meanwhile, Roderich Kiesewetter, a lawmaker from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has called for Germany to participate in a “European nuclear umbrella.” These discussions come as France had earlier proposed extending its nuclear umbrella to cover the entire European Union.
Concerns among some European elites over declining U.S. security commitments to Europe, including the potential reduction of the American nuclear umbrella, have been cited as a key factor behind these proposals.
Review of new military options in Europe
In this regard, the German chancellor has confirmed that Berlin is reviewing options related to a European nuclear deterrent. European officials are also considering measures such as strengthening France’s nuclear arsenal, redeploying nuclear-capable bombers, and enhancing conventional military capabilities along the eastern flank of NATO.
Another option under discussion involves establishing technical infrastructure that would allow European countries without nuclear programs to acquire such capabilities if deemed necessary.
Legal constraints and implementation challenges
Germany remains legally prohibited from developing nuclear weapons under international agreements, including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the Two Plus Four Agreement. However, some analysts argue that weak enforcement mechanisms and divisions among major powers have undermined the effective implementation of these legal frameworks.
Risk of arms race expansion to other regions
Experts warn that if nuclear competition intensifies between the United States on one side and Russia and China on the other, Europe could be drawn into the rivalry. In such a scenario, the transfer of nuclear-related technologies to U.S. allies in Europe could also become a possibility.
This trend may extend beyond Europe. Countries such as Japan and South Korea could seek to strengthen their nuclear capabilities in response to regional threats. Similarly, Saudi Arabia and Turkey may consider such options due to regional security considerations.
Warning of global consequences
Analysts caution that the world may be on the brink of a new global nuclear arms race. While some strategic theorists argue that nuclear weapons can serve as an effective deterrent, the spread of such weapons among more countries increases the risk of instability and unintended conflict.
According to experts, the growing number of nuclear-armed states could heighten the risk of miscalculation, uncontrollable crises, and even accidental nuclear war, developments that would have far-reaching consequences for global security.
Overall, the erosion of arms control constraints among major powers and rising security concerns in Europe and other regions have reinforced the prospect of a broader nuclear competition, a trend that could pose serious challenges to the global security order.
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