Ahlulbayt News Agency: Bloomberg, citing a history of U.S. miscalculations, emphasized that Donald Trump lacks an accurate and comprehensive understanding of Iran and its complexities.
The American news outlet Bloomberg, in a report highlighting decades of miscalculations by U.S. administrations regarding Iran, noted that Trump also appears to have an incomplete grasp of the country.
The report asks how well Trump understands Iran — a country he threatened with military action twice in less than a year. The report emphasizes that the question is not a personal critique, but rather reflects a structural problem in how U.S. policymakers perceive the complexities of West Asia — a weakness that has challenged Washington’s decision-making at least since the fall of the Pahlavi regime in 1979, and even earlier.
Bloomberg further noted, referring to Trump’s scattered and sometimes contradictory statements about the reasons for sending a naval task force to the Persian Gulf, that questioning the White House’s understanding of conditions in Iran is natural.
So far, Trump has cited multiple objectives, including the complete halt of Iran’s nuclear program, restrictions on its ballistic missile program, and an end to Iran’s support for proxy forces in the region. According to the report, such contradictory positions can only be seen as a sign of a successful strategy if they are part of a “crazy but calculated” approach — a tactic aimed at creating confusion for the opposing side while implementing a precise plan behind the scenes.
The report also highlights Trump’s ability to create political distractions, noting that he may have calculated that even if his political base opposes foreign wars and regional allies express concern, rapid military victories typically face limited resistance. However, Bloomberg emphasizes that such victories are rare, and even if achieved, managing their consequences requires a deep understanding of the political and social conditions of the target country.
The report also states that U.S. and Israeli interests regarding Iran are not necessarily aligned. Although Israel has reached a relatively high level of intelligence readiness, the collapse of a government is a complex, costly, and unpredictable process.
Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu’s silence on the increased U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf has been interpreted as a sign of caution. It appears that Israel was not in favor of a limited, symbolic strike, as such an action could have provoked a strong Iranian response without yielding any strategic gains.
The report goes on to reference U.S. historical experience, citing remarks by Jimmy Carter in 1977, who described Iran as an “island of stability”—an assessment made just shortly before the events that led to the Islamic Revolution. At that time, U.S. intelligence agencies were not only unaware of the level of domestic dissatisfaction, but also lacked accurate information about the Shah’s health, despite the extensive U.S. presence in Iran.
In conclusion, Bloomberg asserts that decision-making regarding Iran without accurate information and a deep understanding of its internal dynamics can lead to unpredictable consequences for the United States. The report emphasizes that, to avoid repeating past mistakes, Washington needs, above all, a more precise understanding and a more cautious approach.
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