AhlulBayt News Agency: Concerns about re-eruption of instability of the past decade have begun to rise following fresh clashes between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who is the current interim president of Syria. These concerns are not merely about the security consequences of these two groups near the Iraqi borders. These consequences become more serious when we know that recent reports talked about 1,500 ISIS fighters escaping Al-Shaddadi prison in Syria’s Hasakah province.
Farhad Shami, the SDF press service’s head, commented on the escape, saying that ISIS inmates have joined some militias in Damascus and are planning an attack on Hasakah from five fronts. On the other side, Syrian army reported takeover of the prison, claiming that SDF forces were directly behind the ISIS inmates’ escape.
Recent developments have heightened the likelihood of a resurgence of terrorist elements and the reactivation of their clandestine networks, introducing new questions about the region’s security landscape.
As these conflicts and the escape of ISIS militants unfold near Iraq’s borders, the atmosphere within the country has become increasingly tense due to fears of a repeat of the tragic events of 2014.
In response, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq announced the reinforcement of their troops along the border with Syria. Furthermore, the PMF reported the arrest of an ISIS commander who had infiltrated from Syria into the desert of Mosul in western Nineveh province.
Simultaneously, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani directed the armed forces to take decisive action against any attempts to undermine security along the shared borders. He emphasized that the international borders, especially the one with Syria, have been completely fortified and secured. Iraq’s minister of interior also warned that anyone approaching the country’s borders would be targeted.
Despite assurances from Abu Muhammad al-Jolani claiming there would be no threat emanating from Syria to its eastern neighbor, Iraqi officials remained skeptical of these verbal guarantees. For the past 13 months, security forces have been deployed along the Syrian border, closely monitoring any movements of armed groups and the potential for terrorist infiltrations into Iraq. Now, with a significant number of ISIS members having escaped from prison, the readiness level of Iraqi security forces has surged to an unprecedented high.
Perils of ISIS return
The risk of ISIS return is being raised while over the past years, when the main organization of the group was destroyed and it posed no serious threat to Iraq, some political factions under the excuse of boosting national unity and cohesion, pushed for amnesty of those who had cooperated with terrorists under any pretext.
However, Fatah Coalition, a parliamentary bloc close to resistance factions, came against the proposal, warning that with this motion, around 35,000 will be released and could pose serious threat to Iraq’s security. However, some opposite factions argued that with ISIS obliteration, these inmates posed no threats to country’s security. Finally, the draft bill was amended and dangerous figures were slashed out of the list, but those with light offenses and crimes were pardoned.
In the current situation, where thousands of ISIS members roam freely in the streets of Syria and prepare to rebuild their power, the present conditions cannot be compared to the relatively calm period in Iraq. This is not merely about individuals who were once misled by terrorist groups and collaborated with them against the central government for various reasons, or the families of terrorists living in the Al-Hawl camp. Instead, we are talking about extremists who have committed extensive crimes against humanity in the past.
The Individuals who escaped from Al-Shadadi prison are the same forces that, in previous years, formed one of the bloodiest armed groups in the world, killing thousands in Iraq and Syria and turning cities into battlefields.
Currently, around 1,500 of these individuals are moving freely in the border areas between Syria and Iraq. If they re-organize and manage to re-arm, they could pose a serious threat to Iraq’s security and plunge the region into a new crisis. This is particularly worrisome given the repeated warnings from American officials over the years about the dangers posed by approximately two thousand detained ISIS members in Syria, making it clear that we cannot remain indifferent to this issue.
Therefore, the Iraqi army and the PMF, understanding the potential ramifications of this situation, have initiated coordinated actions to identify, track, and neutralize the movements of these elements in order to prevent their return to operational status. There is no doubt that terrorist elements will strive to once again destabilize the borders between Syria and Iraq in pursuit of their goals.
Given the relatively large number of them, their capacity for reorganizing and launching fresh attacks have increased, raising the level of security threats in Iraq and the region substantially.
In such conditions, we can clearly see the implications of the amnesty bill, since many of those released under this law had no serious capacity for destabilization at a time ISIS was weakened. But if now they feel the ISIS sleeper cells are regaining their power, they are not unlikely to join them. This is the threat the leaders of the resistance groups highlighted when they opposed the public amnesty bill.
US riding the wave
In recent years, the US has been a leading supporter of terrorist groups in the region and is now looking to leverage the presence of fleeing ISIS fighters to exert security pressure on Iraq. Therefore, the American withdrawal from the Ain al-Assad base, coinciding with the rising tensions in eastern Syria and the escape of ISIS elements, is far from a simple event.
By relocating its troops to the Kurdistan Region and decreasing its footprint in areas controlled by the central government, Washington is not only cutting its security costs but also creating an opportunity for renewed instability in western Iraq through extremist forces. This action fits into a larger strategic calculation by the U.S., especially since political and economic pressures to weaken or dissolve the PMF have so far failed.
Consequently, Plan B is now on Washington’s agenda, aimed at preoccupying resistance forces with the fight against ISIS, thereby diminishing their capabilities in other security and political arenas. This approach underscores America's efforts to maintain its influence and power in Iraq, even without a substantial direct presence in sensitive areas, all while simultaneously restraining local forces to shift the balance of power in favor of Washington.
Additionally, another strategic objective of the US is to propagate the notion that with its withdrawal from Iraq, the country is once again plunging into instability and insecurity. Washington aims to instill the impression that the relative stability observed in certain regions of Iraq in recent years has largely been due to the American military presence in bases like Ain Al-Assad and other key centers in the west and north of the country.
Thus, the US is attempting to convey the message that its absence could create conditions for the resurgence of threats such as ISIS, dragging Iraq back into violence and erosive conflicts. From this perspective, the US government is hopeful that a new wave of insecurity will create opportunities to return to its previous bases, allowing it to leverage these circumstances for political, security, and even economic concessions from Baghdad. This strategy is part of Washington’s broader efforts to maintain its influence and decisive role in the developments of Iraq and the region.
Iraq’s preventive measures
Given the fact that ISIS is likely to return to Iraq as a security challenge and some foreign actors are trying to take advantage of these condition for reviving their past failed plans, Iraq is today facing a decisive test the result of which will determine the political and security situation of the country for the long years to come.
Therefore, if Iraqi forces succeed in identifying and eliminating active ISIS cells in the event of a terrorist operation and completely uproot this movement, it will lay the groundwork for achieving sustainable stability and widespread tranquility in Iraq. In such a scenario, terrorist groups will not be able to easily entertain thoughts of destabilizing Iraq in the future, as they will recognize that they are up against a strong security structure that considers itself a protector and guardian of national security.
Simultaneously, realization of such victory can disturb the US calculations and will leave it in front of a stronger Iraq that has foiled Washington’s destabilizing plans and now plays an independent role in maintaining regional stability and security.
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