AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The United States and its allies have launched a new phase of confrontation with Russia and China focused on maritime warfare, a strategy aimed at imposing commercial blockades, seizing and sabotaging vessels, closing key waterways, and even conducting “preemptive” actions at sea. Observers say the objective is to shift the balance of power on land by waging conflict across the world’s oceans.
Current targets of this approach appear to include Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Russia, North Korea, China, and India. In this context, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Senate committee that if these countries take steps to deter Washington’s escalation, the U.S. Navy would “fire first.”
Referring to the deployment of American military assets in sensitive regions, Rubio said the goal was to create a posture capable of responding preemptively, if necessary, before any attack against U.S. forces and facilities or those of its allies occurs. His remarks have been interpreted as a shift from a purely defensive doctrine toward an aggressive form of deterrence.
Russia’s response to these maritime threats has remained unclear. After the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera was seized on January 7 off the west coast of Scotland, the Russian Foreign Ministry described the move as “piracy,” rather than a declaration of war. Moscow said the seizure was carried out on the basis of alleged violations of U.S. sanctions against Iran, not direct sanctions against Russia.
Despite the presence of a Russian naval escort, including a submarine and a frigate, no clear explanation was given as to why the tanker was not defended. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova initially demanded the release of two Russian crew members and later thanked the United States for freeing them. After delays, the two Russian citizens were released and returned home on January 28.
By contrast, the ship’s captain and first officer, who are Georgian nationals, remain in detention in Britain, with Washington seeking their extradition. Other crew members, most of them Indian, were released and repatriated under British legal procedures, without special concessions to Moscow’s requests.
At the same time, France on January 22 seized the tanker Grinch in international waters in the Mediterranean near the Spanish coast and transferred it to the port of Marseille. The vessel was carrying Russian crude oil bound for Türkiye. So far, no serious public response has been issued by Moscow or New Delhi in defense of the cargo or crew.
On another front, Washington has stepped up maritime pressure on Cuba and has even threatened to block Russian and Mexican oil shipments to the island. Zakharova responded that the United States has repeatedly threatened Cuba, intensified the blockade, and even placed the country on its list of “state sponsors of terrorism.” She stressed Moscow’s solidarity with the Cuban government and people.
Meanwhile, the European Union is also moving to sharply restrict Russian oil exports through the Baltic Sea. Oleg Tsaryov, a Ukraine opposition figure based in Crimea, warned that nearly half of Russia’s seaborne oil exports pass through the Baltic, and that if these threats are implemented, every departing Russian tanker could face seizure, dealing a heavy blow to Russia’s budget.
He said Russia cannot rely solely on what he called “maritime patience” and must adopt an operational plan with concrete countermeasures to confront potential tanker seizures.
In the Arctic, threats against Russia’s use of the Northern Sea Route are also increasing. On January 21, Vladimir Putin briefly commented on developments surrounding Greenland, saying the issue “has nothing to do with Russia,” though Moscow has provided no further clarification.
At the same time, countries in the Baltic and North Sea region have announced that ships carrying Russian oil, whether under the Russian flag or not, could be stopped and seized, particularly if they use multiple flags, switch off identification systems, or conduct ship-to-ship transfers without prior notification.
A source close to Moscow said that if behavior resembles piracy, the response would follow the same logic. According to the source, Russian oil exporters should formally register vessels, use the Russian flag, employ Russian crews, and deploy armed personnel on every tanker to establish a legal basis for self-defense, enabling Russia to legitimately use military force for deterrence.
As a result, the maritime confrontation between the United States and its allies and Russia has entered a new phase, one that could make global energy routes more insecure and shift great-power rivalry from land to sea.
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