AhlulBayt News Agency: While the interim Syrian government led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had earlier agreed to end their clashes and return peace to the flash points, this agreement has remained ink on the paper as there are no signs of cessation of hostilities.
After several violations of ceasefire last week by the two sides, the defense ministry of al-Jolani on Saturday announced extension of the truce deal with the SDF for 15 days. Accepting the extension, the SDF stated that "along with talks with international mediators, we announce extending the ceasefire for 15, days... We commit to respect the agreement for de-escalation and God protection of lives of civilians and paving the way for stability."
Despite renewing the deal, on Saturday evening, eastern Syria became scene to rejuvenated clashes. The SDF issued a statement saying that government in Damascus systematically continues its deployment of forces and military equipment and escalates its battleground movement in Jazira and Kobani, two Kurdish cantons in the north. The statement added that monitoring the deployment of forces and military vehicles shows a clear determination for escalation and sinking the region into a new confrontation.
The head of foreign relations for the SDF-affiliated Autonomous Administration, Ilham Ahmed, told Al Jazeera that the SDF are not seeking to escalate the war, warning that any new fighting could trigger a large-scale wave of displacement.
Clashes over the past few days in eastern and northern Syria have dealt heavy blows to Kurdish forces. Under agreements reached between the two sides, SDF units withdrew from key positions, which are now under the control of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the leading coalition of militias that toppled Bashar al-Assad earlier innDecember 2024.
For nearly a decade, the Kurds administered parts of Aleppo and Hasakah, seeking to use these territories as the foundation for an autonomous state. However, developments in recent weeks seem to have shattered that long-standing ambition.
From this perspective, the loss of these areas could mark a turning point for the SDF, particularly as internal and regional pressures on the Kurds continue to build. Some narratives even suggest the possible collapse of the SDF’s structure and a declaration of its dissolution, an outcome likened to the PKK leadership’s announcement ending the group’s 40-year armed campaign.
Under these circumstances, Syria’s interim government could gain greater control over oil and gas resources in the country’s north and east. Meanwhile, if political conditions allow and Damascus honors its commitments, the Kurds could be integrated into Syria’s security and political governance structures. Still, current developments indicate that a permanent ceasefire between the two sides remains a distant prospect.
Turkey's role in clashes
Though the Kurdish withdrawal from Aleppo and Hasakah seems to be an outcome of a deal with Damascus, the role of some regional actors behind undermining and even destroying Kurdish militias is noticeable. Turkey is one of the countries that has been lurking for such an opportunity to push Kurdish militias back from its forces and ensure its security. Now with armed groups ruling Damascus, Ankar is pushing to finish its incomplete plans and cement its influence in these Syrian regions.
This is what Foreign Minister of Turkey Hakan Fidan has admitted recently, adding that Ankara is active in eastern Syria conflict. He further threatened that after Hasakah, Turkey will chase PKK group in Iraq's Sinjar Mountains of Mosul.
Although Turkey’s primary objective along its southern borders is the elimination of Kurdish armed groups, a more strategic motive underpins these actions: competition with the Israeli regime. By occupying parts of southern Syria and exploiting the country’s instability, Tel Aviv is seeking to entrench its presence in these areas, an effort that deeply concerns Ankara.
Turkey, whose allied factions in Syria hold a share of power, views itself as a key stakeholder in the country’s future. Drawing on the influence it amassed through extensive support during the civil war, Ankara is striving to become a decisive and unrivaled player in Syria’s political and security landscape. The presence of the Israeli regime, however, poses a serious obstacle to the realization of these ambitions.
Within this framework, Ankara is concentrating on northern and eastern Syria, working to curb the threat posed by Kurdish groups in order to consolidate its position and shift greater attention toward perceived threats from Tel Aviv. If Ankara can ensure stability in northern Syria, it will be better positioned to expand its activities in Damascus and the country’s south, allowing it to directly monitor and respond to the actions and movements of its Israeli adversary.
Turkey’s concerns have intensified following reports from sources affiliated with the SDF claiming that the Israeli regime has offered assistance to these forces and established contacts with SDF leaders. Consequently, Ankara is moving to achieve its security objectives before Tel Aviv gains a foothold in eastern Syria and the balance of power shifts.
Kurds, the US bargaining chip
Over the past decade, the Kurds have been under full US protection, and on the strength of the presence of the US troops, they managed to gain a ground in northern and eastern regions of Syria. But now Washington’s view of them has shifted, making them a play thing and a bargaining chip in the US deals with others.
According to reports, Washington no longer sees the Kurds their allies and has withdrawn its once staunch support for them.
Following the handover to Damascus of eastern Syria’s oil and gas fields that were under the US control for nearly a decade, reports have now emerged pointing to an American withdrawal from Syria. In this context, a security source in Iraq’s western Anbar province said on Saturday that a large U.S. military convoy, consisting of dozens of trucks carrying troops and military equipment, departed from the al-Tanf base in Syria near the Iraqi border and headed toward the Harir base in Erbil province in the Kurdistan Region on an undisclosed mission.
These developments indicate that the Kurds can no longer rely on direct support from Washington and are instead being forced to recalibrate their position in line with the region’s new political and security realities. In the absence of the US, Kurdish forces have effectively been left exposed to pressure from the al-Jolani regime and Turkey, and it appears that, moving forward, they will have little choice but to pursue an agreement and hand over their weapons.
US officials had earlier and repeatedly signaled their readiness to abandon the Kurds. Among them was Tom Barrack, the US envoy for Syria, who warned that if the Kurds failed to reach an agreement with Damascus by the end of December 2025, “alternative options” would be considered.
Developments over the past two weeks show that regional and local actors have stepped up pressure on the Kurds, leaving them with little room to maneuver. The groups now appear compelled to strike a deal with Damascus in order to secure their safety and preserve a minimum level of interests.
Danger of ISIS prisoners
In addition to the clashes between the SDF and al-Jolani’s forces that have destabilized Syria even further, the presence of ISIS terrorists is compounding the situation.
According to Kurdish sources, in recent days around 1,500 ISIS prisoners have broken free from Al-Shaddadi prison in Hasakah, something began to worry the Iraqi officials. Responding to this threat, Baghdad deployed thousands of army and PMF border guards to the shared borders with Syria to block ISIS incursions into Iraq.
Simultaneous with prison break of ISIS militants, a number of elements of this terrorist group are planned to be transferred to Iraq from Syria. Given their threat, Iraq has taken security measures to manage this transfer and prevent any possible crisis.
The spokesperson for the Iraqi government stayed on Saturday that the PM as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces ordered the transfer of ISIS prisoners from Syria to Iraq and their placement in secure prisons so that legal actions can be taken against them.
"The decision to transfer Daesh (ISIS) prisoners from Syria to Iraq was made after extensive discussions in an emergency meeting of the National Security Council. This transfer aims to gather terrorists wanted by the Iraqi judiciary and ensure that they do not escape from unsafe camps in Syria, especially since many of them are senior and dangerous terrorist leaders," Sabah al-Numan said.
Additionally, Syrian sources reported that dozens of Syrian nationals with terrorist affiliations are being released from prisons that were previously under the control of the SDF due to their connections with prominent figures in the al-Jolani regime.
It is noteworthy that with the escalation of armed conflicts between the al-Jolani regime and the SDF, control of the prisons that housed terrorist members fell into the hands of the al-Jolani loyalists, leading to the release of many prisoners linked to groups such as ISIS, which is seen as a serious threat.
If these dangerous elements rearm and destabilize the Iraq-Syria border, instability in the region will escalate once again. Thus, the al-Jolani government's actions to free ISIS terrorists pose a potential danger, as the resurgence of this group could also threaten the interim government of Syria.
Experience of past has shown that takfiri groups even do not show mercy with each other. Bloody clashes between the HTS and ISIS in the past bear witness to this reality. So, escaped terrorists not only pose threats to northern Syria, but also to the whole region, and any oversight can endanger security.
In general, the SDF clashes with al-Jolani forces push Syria to further instability and recent weeks developments have shown that there are no positive prospects for return of stability. Further insecurity and clashes, combined with possible Israeli involvement in these developments, risk practically shattering Syria's hope for peace.
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