AhlulBayt News Agency - The Economist stated that by the end of 2017, Bahrain's debt is expected to reach 65% of GDP, as it will need an oil price of $120 to balance its books.
"Oil is central to the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, which have used the windfall of the past few years to spend lavishly. Unlike many oil exporters, such as Nigeria and Venezuela, they have high foreign-exchange reserves and low debts to cover short-term gaps. But public spending is generous and the private sector is heavily reliant on oil to boot. To be sustainable in an era of lower prices, the rulers must change the structure of their economies," explained The Economist.
It added that Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar, which have small populations and high foreign-exchange reserves, can get by for a decade. But the other three states (Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain) are in a trickier position. Oman and Bahrain have relatively low reserves.
"Observers are particularly concerned about Saudi Arabia. It has huge foreign-currency reserves-roughly $740 billion at the end of 2014-but is drawing them down at a clip, taking out about $115 billion in 2015. At 30m, its population is the Gulf's biggest, and it has a sprawling royal family to pamper," noted The Economist.
Oil prices have decreased by 70% since mid-2014, due to the rise in fuel supplies in the global market and lagging demand, which adversely affected countries that are heavily reliant on oil such as Gulf states.
/129