Fall of Palmyra is ‘the beginning of the end’ for ISIS terrorists

AhlulBayt News Agency - IT’S lost a vital and strategic city in its ongoing battle to establish a caliphate.

But the so-called Islamic State has lost more than just territory, with a major access route cut off and the loss of face adding to its humiliating defeat.

IS was driven from of its most important strongholds and hundreds of its fighters are dead after Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air strikes, took back control of the ancient city of Palmyra.

Many are now speculating it’s the beginning of the end for the terror group, which has devastated parts of Syria and Iraq and ruled with fear.

Terrorism expert and former Australian Secret Intelligence Service agent Warren Reed told Australia News the loss of Palmyra showed IS was “on the downward slide”.

While still being capable of inflicting major damage and devastation, Mr Reed said the biggest loss for IS was how it looked to potential new recruits, who could view it as a weakened fighting force.

“Palmyra has always been a significant strategic point,” he said.

“But it’s also significant in the sense that clearly the tide is turning against IS. It’s now a downward spiral for them.”

Mr Reed, who was head ASIS’s Indonesia desk, said the loss of any territory was bad news for IS, let alone one that was so well known on the international tourist market.

He said it could also encourage people living under IS rule to have the confidence to rise up and take action with many potentially viewing the militant group as growing weaker.

WHAT HAPPENED

Syrian government forces backed by Russian air strikes took back the city — one of IS’s most important strongholds — after a three-week battle.

Syria hopes the move will help prove to its people its forces are capable of fighting terror, as it now controls the surrounding desert extending to the Iraqi border.

IS, also known as ISIL, also lost about 400 fighters in the battle, which is a big blow to its manpower.

‘A FATAL BLOW’

General Ali Mayhoub announced on Syrian TV that the fall of Palmyra “directs a fatal blow to the ISIL, undermines the morale of its mercenaries, and ushers in the start of its defeat and retreat”.

He also said it laid the ground for further advances toward Raqqa, Islamic State’s de facto capital, and Deir el-Zour, an eastern city it largely controls.

SYMBOLIC CITY

Syrian Culture Minister Issam Khalil hailed the recapture of Palmyra as a “victory for humanity and right over all projects of darkness”.

Palmyra endured a 10-month reign of terror when IS militants stormed the ancient town. The city’s 2000-year-old ruins from the Roman Empire once drew tens of thousands of visitors each year, but many were destroyed by militants.

But it is important to IS for other reasons, including an access route to its major stronghold, Raqqa.

IS captured Palmyra in May last year before driving out government forces in a matter of days. It later demolished some of the best-known monuments in the UNESCO world heritage site.

The group blew up two of the site’s treasured classical temples, its triumphal arch and a dozen tower tombs as they believe ancient ruins promote idolatry, which is the worship of a physical object as a representation of a god.

IS used Palmyra’s ancient amphitheatre as a venue for public executions, including the beheading of the city’s 82-year-old former antiquities chief.

STRATEGIC MOVE

The town was an important juncture on an IS supply line connecting its territory in central and northern Syria to the Anbar province in Iraq, where the group also holds territory.

According to The Economist, the Syrian army has cut off the jihadists’ supply road to Raqqa forcing them to retreat east towards Iraq where Yazidi fighters have also recaptured some territory.

This forces IS to use the longer route via Deir Ezzor.

But more importantly, the loss of territory has “affected IS’s fiances”, with IS having lost a quarter of its territory in the past 14 months, The Economist reported.

This means it has also become harder for the terror group “to export its oil since losing control of key crossing points on Syria’s northern border with Turkey”.

However, the US-led international coalition estimates that the group has lost 40 per cent of the territory it once held in Iraq and about 20 per cent of its territory in Syria.

Air strikes have also targeted IS oilfields and processing plants, further hitting them where it hurts.

DEAD COMMANDERS

Islamic State’s loss of Palmyra follows the loss of some of its most senior leaders.

Islamic State’s second-in-command and other senior leaders were killed in a major offensive targeting financial operations during the past week.

US Defence Secretary Ash Carter told a Pentagon press briefing on Friday that the US believed it killed Haji Iman, a senior leader in charge of finances for the caliphate, and Abu Sarah, who was charged with paying fighters in northern Iraq.

“We are systematically eliminating ISIL’s cabinet,” Carter said.

While the operational significance of removing Haji Iman from the battlefield is not yet clear, it is the latest in a series of strikes against the group’s top leaders. Other targets included Abu Omar al-Shishani, described by the Pentagon as the group’s “minister of war”, and a senior IS chemical weapons operative captured by Iraq-based US commandos and turned over to the Iraqi government.

WHAT NEXT?

The Syrian Army now plans to expand its military operations and further tighten the noose on Islamic State.

The Syrian government said the capture of Palmyra was a major setback for the terror group, which has come under mounting pressure on several fronts in Iraq and Syria in recent months.

Mr Reed said he believed IS would tighten its grip further on the strategic northern city of Mosul and its de facto capital Raqqa.

“IS would not want to lose any territory at all and particularly won’t want to lose Mosul and Raqqa,” he said.

THE BIG PRIZE

Taking back Mosul from IS rule is likely to involve intense urban combat.

Earlier this year, Mr Carter warned IS strongholds would be targeted and its commanders subjected to “elimination operations”.

He said 2016 would be the year the American-led coalition assaults the IS in Raqqa and Mosul, The Guardian reported.

The US has pledged to help the Iraqis regain control of Mosul, since it fell into IS hands in 2014.

However a move into Mosul could still be some months away.

Syria’s conflict began a little more than five years ago with mostly peaceful protests against the Assad family’s four-decade rule.

But a fierce government crackdown and the rise of an insurgency plunged the country into a full-blown civil war that has killed more than 250,000 people.




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