Daesh Shifts Course after Paris, San Bernardino Terror Attacks

AhlulBayt News Agency - The crash of the Russian passenger jet in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula in October, 2015, for which the ISIS terror group has taken responsibility, could at the end of the road be more horrifying than Paris and then California’s San Bernardino terrorist attacks.

Daniel L. Byman, a director of research and a senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, in an analysis published by Brookings has written that “Western security officials had long worried than their countries’ own citizens would conduct attacks after returning home from Iraq or Syria or strike out as “lone wolf” terrorists. But the Russian plane crash, which killed 224 people, was caused by a different beast: neither lone wolves nor ISIS itself but an ISIS affiliate that had pledged its loyalty to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS’ self-declared caliph.”

ISIS calls these groups wilayat, Arabic for provinces. The terrorist organization uses the same term for administrative divisions inside Syria and Iraq. “Anyway, If, as recent events suggest, ISIS’ far-flung provinces have begun closely aligning their actions with those of the group’s core leadership in Iraq and Syria, then ISIS’ geographic scope has expanded vastly,” Byman adds.

Although worrying, ISIS’ expansion was not unexpected. Now ISIS has gone beyond Al-Qaeda terror group in terms of gaining territories and securing power. The wilayats are now posing serious threats to the Western interests. Such wilayats would enable ISIS to expand its sway over territory, transforming the local groups in fatal forces for its own regional battles. Therefore, if the West is intending to defeat ISIS, it must fight all of the terror group, including its affiliates and not solely the visible part of the organization.

ISIS terror group’s expansion

It is certainly known that the heart of ISIS terror group lies in the Sunni-inhabited regions of Iraq and Syria. However, the group claims that it is the legitimate ruler of the whole Muslims and thus it is active across the Muslim world. So far, the terror organization has declared that it held affiliates or wilayats in some parts of Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Caucasus. The terrorists and forces who claim links to ISIS terror organization have carried out attacks also in Bangladesh and Kuwait. Meanwhile, the most worrisome ISIS’ provinces are those in Egypt and Libya. “Today, the Libyan affiliate poses a particularly serious threat to Western interests because its fighters, unlike their counterparts in Egypt, do not face strong government opposition,” continues Daniel L. Byman.

Meanwhile, it could be highly difficult to figure out where ISIS group has formally established its strongholds. In such places, the foreign fighters play a great role in keeping the links between the local fighting groups and the operation centers.

Feeling the bonds  

A variety of factors are influential in attraction of the local groups to ISIS. One of the most significant is the most obvious: Genuine conviction. “As nauseating as ISIS is to most Muslims, it has tapped into the beliefs of an important subset of Sunni Muslims, particularly young men. Trumping sectarianism, the terror group paints itself as the defender and avenger of the Sunni Muslims worldwide, “says Byman.

Moreover, the group’s slick videos and social media campaigns attract even young Sunnis who lack real religious knowledge or conviction by playing into their desires for adventure and a sense of purpose. As General David Rodriguez, the commander of the US’ forces in Africa has noted “the groups link themselves to ISIS terror group to elevate their cause.”

Still, some other groups are joining ISIS for instrumental goals, including enjoying financial and technical aids. On the other hand, ISIS helps the local affiliates to improve the quality of their promotions. “After strengthening ties with ISIS in 2014, for example, Boko Haram was able to elevate its outreach from grainy videos taken on hand-held cameras to more polished productions distributed via Twitter,” says Byman.

On the other hand, the provinces have benefits for the center of ISIS’ governance as they attract other groups to the terror group’s body, enhancing the image of ISIS as a strong and attractive organization. Furthermore, the affiliates provide ISIS’ leaders and fighters with shelters once the group is defeated or pushed back in Syria and Iraq.

Moving towards radicalism

As ISIS grows beyond Iraq and Syria, so, too, does it spread its harsh brand of religious intolerance. In 2015, the followers of the group have attacked the Shiite mosques in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Also they beheaded the Christian Ethiopia’s and Egypt’s nationals in Libya and attacked the security forces and the Shiites. Not only are such attacks tragic in their own right; they also risk setting in motion a cycle of retaliation. Such cycle, which would lead to attacks, would only lead to strengthening of ISIS which sees itself as the defender of the believers.

The doubled problem

Despite the fact that the provinces carry benefits for the terror group, they also carry some troubles for ISIS. First, “they weaken the jihadist movement as a whole. Second, many of them exist because of local rivalries: members of rival groups spend their time killing one another rather than fighting their supposed enemies, “maintains Byman. Third, when a group comes under ISIS’ brand, its enemies would be transferred to be ISIS’ enemies. Such a process would lead to unity of the opposing front in the face of ISIS.

A fresh strategy

Last year, the US’ and its allies’ lack of an apparent strategy for battling ISIS’ provinces did not look significant. Washington and allies are not interested in engaging in another war in West Asia. In fact, it seems, for them, that targeting ISIS’ affiliates would backfire, but bombing the Russian passenger jet has clarified the risks of such US’ notion.

Any strategy which aims at undermining ISIS’ provinces would need two parts: Disconnecting the affiliates from the command centers and making efforts to weaken, contain and finally defeat the affiliates. Thereby, Washington and its allies should target the command centers of ISIS’ provinces as well as those who hold contacts with the organization’s main leaders in Syria and Iraq. To fight ISIS, the US would need to establish military bases in many remote points of the world. Besides, showing flexibility is very vital in this course because it is hard to predict which provinces would expand and draw attention most. Furthermore, for scaling down the costs and achieving the right for geographical access, the US needs to collaborate further with its allies.



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