(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) - However, the professor says, “Without the cooperation of India and Pakistan, any trans-regional security arrangement (for Afghanistan) will be tenuous.”
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: In February a leaked document from U.S. forces in Afghanistan stated that the Taliban are set to retake control of Afghanistan after NATO-led forces withdraw from the country. What is your prediction?
A: The United States has been evaluating its options in Afghanistan for sometime now. Although publicly various U.S. officials claim periodically that the Taliban movement has been defeated militarily, it is clear that such optimistic pronouncements are premature and are likely designed for domestic U.S. consumption. The reality of the situation is much more complicated than what U.S. military communiqués indicate. As a result, some in the U.S. civilian and military leadership are supporting some type of rapprochement with the Taliban, especially those in the Taliban leadership who can be mollified and co-opted into power-sharing scheme. Therefore, it is not inconceivable for the Taliban to return to power, especially in the Pushtun areas of Afghanistan, sometime in the future. However, I think if the U.S. plays this game, it will actually lead to further destabilization, and possible de facto partition of Afghanistan.
Q: What roles can Afghanistan’s neighbors play in the future security of the country? Do you believe regional or trans-regional security arrangements would be more effective?
A: Afghanistan's neighbors can theoretically play a constructive role in bringing stability and security to Afghanistan. However, there remains a major problem in any regional security scheme, namely the continuing Indo-Pakistani competition for influence in Afghanistan. Both India and Pakistan have extended their game of power politics to Afghanistan and have used Afghanistan as another theater of operation for their regional ambitions. Iran has played the most constructive role in Afghanistan, but without the cooperation of India and Pakistan, any trans-regional security arrangement will be tenuous.
Q: What predictions can you make for the future of Afghanistan? Do you envision a day when there will be no war in our neighboring country?
A: In the short term, Afghanistan's future does not look very promising. Years of occupation and civil war have destroyed the social fabric of the country. The central government in Kabul remains highly ineffective and incapable of providing the most rudimentary services to the people of Afghanistan. However, the long term prospects of development in Afghanistan look somewhat better than its current predicament indicates. There also seems to be a genuine desire on the part of ordinary Afghans to bring back some semblance of normality to their daily lives.
Nader Entessar is professor of the University of South Alabama. He is the author of Kurdish Ethnonationalism (1992) and the co-editor of Reconstruction and Regional Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf (Routledge, 1992) and Iran and the Arab world.
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