"Dangerous possibility of civil war in Bahrain"

(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) - The comments come a few days after the first anniversary of popular protests in Bahrain that have been repressed by the Saudi-backed regime forces. Dozens of people have been killed and hundreds more arrested or fired from their jobs since the beginning of Bahrain’s popular uprising in February 2011. There is an interview with Dominic Kavakeb, coordinator for Bahrain Justice and Development movement from London to discuss the situation. The video also offers the opinions of two other guests, Beirut-based political analysts Sara Marusek and Jihad Mouracadeh. What follows is an approximate transcription of the interview: Q: I want to ask you about the importance of your campaign, what you are doing of course in the case of the Bahraini people, the fact that international organizations, human rights organizations have said that the regime, the Bahraini Kingdom has not lived up to its promises. What can you tell us about that and how come you don’t see more efforts to pressure the Bahraini Kingdom as we see for example in the case of Syria? Kavakeb: Well, in terms of the work we do here in London, we try very hard to convince politicians- to work with the different politicians, the media people, to try and convince them that there does need to be some action taken on Bahrain. I think there quite clearly does. The problem we’ve seen so far is that as the previous person alluded to the western governments are trying to basically create stability in Bahrain at any cost. That seems to be their main concern. And I think there has been a sustained attempt to try and pull the will over the eyes by the Bahraini government, of the rest of the world to try and portray this conflict as being, you know, two equal sides or a sectarian divide, when I think the reality is the people in Bahrain are looking for democracy. It’s not a question of just Tunisia; it’s not a question of Iran involvement as has been said in this discussion; it’s a question of democracy and that’s the real issue. That’s what the people are looking for in Bahrain. They’re looking to have an elected government. Bahrain has got the same prime minister for the last 42 years. This is not appropriate in 2012. This needs to be changed. They need to have a complete overhaul, a democratic system. And I think that’s what the Bahraini people are looking for. I think we need to try and make that clear, here in the West or anywhere else, to our politicians, to the media, that that’s the real antagonism that exists in Bahraini society. Q:Something that we might point out to is that the population of Bahrain is about half a million and the death rate was about 60, I think, in one year. Don’t you think that is a bit high compared to the number of population. Does there have to be more killings in order for the people to be able see the injustice that’s happening in Bahrain? Kavakeb: Well, I’d hope not. I’d hope that people would accept that one single death in this sort of situation is a tragedy. And absolutely, you’re right to point out that the number of deaths that have happened in the past year are high considering the population which makes it- I think as a proportion more people have been killed in Bahrain in the last year than have been killed in Egypt in the past year. And I think Bahrainis may be third or fourth in the Arab Spring for deaths per population. So I don’t think that should really be a characteristic to decide whether or not the international community should support people in the struggle for democracy whether one person is killed or whether hundreds and hundreds of people are killed. The people are looking for democracy and that’s what they want and that’s got to be the basis for support, the international community- not just the human rights violations but these people are looking for democratic values. Q: Before I come back to my guest over here (in the studio) I want to ask you about the strategy that the anti-government protestors want to use in Bahrain. When you speak to them will they continue just peaceful demonstrations? Is that how they will continue their protests? Kavakeb:It’s difficult to say. I mean no one can know exactly what will happen but I know certainly for the political parties the main opposition bloc are completely and one hundred percent committed to peaceful tactics as they have been for the past year of this conflict actually. You know, they’ve been far more peaceful than many of the other activists in the Arab Spring in other countries. You know, they’ve gone on for a year now and they’ve seen no changes, really no changes just a few barely cosmetic changes happening in the country. And you have to start to wonder that given the amount of time that’s past by without anything really happening, will the people start to consider less peaceful tactics. I certainly hope not but the people are being forced into a desperate situation now. They’ve been met with repression, time and time again. It is going to sadly raise the question perhaps the people need to start defending themselves. Q:I think Mr. Kavakeb has something to tell us on this issue [referring ton what the other two speakers were talking about]. Go ahead Mr. Kavakeb. Kavakeb:Well, the Bahrain independent commission of inquiry spent, you know, 6 months in Bahrain looking at the situation, looking at what happened in the course of February and March and they came back and said that we have absolutely no evidence that Iran has had any involvement with Bahrain whatsoever. So I think the fact that people can still sit there or stand there and say the Bahraini protesters are being told what to do from Iran, they have major links to Iran is just complete nonsense, it’s a smokescreen. It’s an attempt to completely smear the genuine democratic demands of the Bahraini people and try to focus elsewhere and actually it’s a very clever tactic those who support the government try to use because they know that they are exploiting the tensions that exist between Iran and the West to try and damage the opposition in Bahrain. Mouracadeh: Excuse me have you been listening to the statements of the Iranian government? Kavakeb: Of course. Mouracadeh:As I said the first statement of the Iranian government was we would like to intervene on behalf of the poor population, poor Shia population, which is being massacred. Kavakeb:But did they? Mouracadeh:When they said they wanted to intervene and that was a foreign threat to the government of Bahrain. Then the government of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain triggered the defense back, which is absolutely normal. Kavakeb: That’s not true. Cause even Bahrain officials would tell you today that’s not why Saudi forces came in. They came in apparently to protect installations- that’s the official line. Mouracadeh:Absolutely, not to intervene on either side, just to protect installations. Kavakeb:The fact that they came into the country was an intimidation, it was a threat against Bahraini protesters. If you send tanks into a country, over a bridge, you know with weapons and this and that, are you telling me that’s not going to threat and intimidate people? Of course it is. That’s why they did it. That’s the real reason why they did it- nothing to do with Iran, nothing to do with Shia populations. Mouracadeh:If you threaten to intervene on behalf of the Shia population as Iran, don’t you think it threatens the government? Q: I think we’ve had enough of this issue Mr. Kavakeb I also want to ask you about the demands of the people. Do you think that if the crackdown continues we might see more radicalized demands? Kavakeb: I think that’s already happened. I think over the past year people began talking about, you know, making minor democratic changes here and there, you know, but I think now more and more people are becoming more radicalized and that’s creating a much more polarized situation on both sides. You know, I think people on the extreme of both sides of this are getting increasingly stronger because of the political stalemate and I think that’s really the reason why more than anything else Bahrain needs to turn around. The Bahraini government needs to turn around and say we need to start opening a dialogue to democracy; we need to start discussing the serious qualms of the Bahraini people before the situation gets even worse and before we see the real prospects of civil war. That is a dangerous possibility that may happen unless there is serious dialogue happening now and I really call on the Bahraini government to do that immediately, to set the ground work for discussion, a real discussion, not a sort of fake discussion that they’ve had so far. But a real discussion that addresses why you have a prime minister for 42 years? Why you have a judicial system which is completely non-independent, which is completely run by the royal family. You know, all these sorts of questions need to be addressed and that’s how the country will move forward, not any other way./129