(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) - Below is an interview with Director of the Middle East Center for Studies and Public Relations Hisham Jaber to further discuss the issue.
Q: Do you agree that the US and Saudi Arabia have been caught by surprise, and they actually do not have an alternative?
Jaber: As we said the Saudis are in a very difficult situation now, as they do not have an alternative. The Saudis have imposed a lot of pressure [on Saleh], because they are afraid of Yemen, whether the regime be democratic or not. The Saudis see Yemen as their backyard.
They have a couple of weeks to make a decision; meanwhile, Saleh will remain in Saudi Arabia, and Vice President Abdu-Rabbu Mansour Hadi in Yemen, will be the temporary leader for 60 days. The problem is what about the army and the friends and relatives of Saleh who have taken over the commandos, the army, and the Republican Guard? The army hasn't been affected. The army is still in the hands of Ali Abdullah Saleh and his regime.
The once-peaceful revolution is not peaceful anymore, as Yemen is on the brink of a civil war. We must remember that before the revolution, Saleh was facing three challenges. The Houthis, the South in Yemen, and al-Qaeda.
Q: The opposition is speaking of a deal of transition to take place in Yemen. If they go forward with the PGCC [Persian Gulf Cooperation Council] deal, that would mean a unity government between the ruling party and the opposition before the elections are held. Do you think that that kind of unity government, with the ruling party involved in it, would satisfy the people?
Jaber: Friday [the attack on the presidential palace which wounded Saleh and led to his departure] was a great breakthrough in the Yemeni situation. There is no way to go back to the [P]GCC proposal, Ali Abdullah Saleh has gone. He will not come back. It is too soon to talk about financial aid in this situation. The only concern right now is the future ruler of Yemen, and questions of a civil war. Al-Qaeda doesn't present any serious threat to the future of Yemen. Of course al-Qaeda is very important, but it is not that serious of a threat.
Saleh has tried to convince the Americans that al-Qaeda is the only alternative if he left power, which is not the case at all. The Americans do not believe that al-Qaeda poses a threat to Yemen. They did support his regime, under the pressure of the Saudis as we said.
Now the situation has changed, and the US is looking for its own interests, like it happened in Tunisia and Egypt. I don't think the US will put Saleh back in power, with any proposals or reconciliations. I think the Americans are supporting the vice president, as he is talking about who is going to take over.
I don't think they are reaching a solution or following democracy. If they are talking about a solution, they have to apply the constitution in Yemen, and call for new elections. I think this is the only solution to save Yemen from division or from a possible civil war.
I don't think the Saudis will be happy to have a civil war in Yemen, because it will affect them and be very dangerous to the Saudis. I don't think that any foreign military intervention will be taken in Yemen, from the Saudis or non-Saudis. It would be too complicated and too much of a risk.
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