(AhlulBayt News Agency) - Thousands of people have taken to the streets of Benghazi since last week, calling for the ouster of the 68-year-old Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi, who has been in office since September 1969.
Gaddafi's son, Seif al-Islam, has rejected reports that more than 300 people have been killed in the ongoing unrest in the country.
Will the remaining Arab dictators be able to ride the wave of change or will they drown in the people's demands for total regime change?
Press TV has interviewed Yougeen Dabous, head of the Political Department at Notherdam University, Beirut to ask for his take on the issue.
Press TV: We have one of our analysts that has actually said that, when he is looking at this movement in the Arab world, he doesn't see it as multiple revolutions taking place, but looking at these uprisings as one revolution with many stages. How do you see this comment?
Yougeen Dabous: I think that there are two major changes since the 90s and even since the last ten years. One is the increase in connectivity, the fact that a new generation has learned how to use the Internet. They are text savvy. They are exchanging information globally, not only between Arab countries but also with their respective diasporas.
On the other hand, you have an increase in poverty. And I think this is probably the common denominator throughout the region: the assumption that the ruling elites, whether they are royal families or military dictatorships, in connection with chronic capitalism are unable or unwilling to deal with poverty in their countries.
This link between poverty and hopelessness on the part of the young and the general population and this almost unlimited access to information is enabling this to happen.
Press TV: Mr. Dabous, how do you see the whole Bahrain situation? Do you think that it is too late? Has it gone beyond the time that the demonstrators would have talks with the government, as the government is requesting? Or no, do you think that there is still time for reforms that for example being made by the government could perhaps stop this uprising and satisfy the masses? How do you see it?
Yougeen Dabous: Of course in Bahrain, you'll have to distinguish between the government and the royal family simply because if the demands are that the royal family should go, there is probably going to be a massive crackdown. That would be one major mistake which I think would lead to renewed bloodshed.
Another issue is if we bring in the confessional aspect, this is something we have learned in Lebanon, if you bring in the confessional aspect, you are definitely going to poison the situation...
Press TV: What do you mean by that?
Yougeen Dabous: Well, it is already mentioned by the colleague from London that the soldiers are foreigners. That is code for Sunnis, and that is true, that the government is trying to increase the percentage of the Sunni population by importing Sunnis from neighboring countries to diminish the size of the Shia population. We are used to this kind of game in Lebanon. And this is probably the worst thing that can happen.
What has to happen, in my opinion, on the side of the protesters, is to keep this about democracy, rule of law, and social justice. As long as they do that, I think that the concessions will be there from the royal family. Once they move beyond that and bring in the Sunni-Shia issue and the issue of the royal family stepping down, they are going to be in big trouble because then Saudi Arabia is going to intervene.
Press TV: We had people there today, and talked to the demonstrators, and some of them were saying they want total regime change. So, you see this move as a mistake?
Yougeen Dabous: Well, if regime refers to the government...
Press TV: Well, let me clarify, according to what they were saying to us, they meant total regime change, change in the monarchy. So, do you think that this is a mistake?
Yougeen Dabous: Well, that would be the domino that shouldn't fall, because if they go after the monarchy in Bahrain, that is going to mean something for Jordan, and that is going to mean something for Saudi Arabia, and here I think, that would be one bridge too far.
If they want the concession they legitimately should be demanding, which is social justice, a lack of discrimination against the Shia population, access to government jobs and influential positions, they should stay away from these two -- I would say -- red lines, one is the royal family, and the other is questioning the confessional makeup. I think if you have democracy, then you can go after these issues in a democratic way, but now, they would be demanding too much, too soon.
Press TV: Libya has brutally clamped down on protesters, and has opened fire with machine guns, as well as sniper fire, killing at least 200 people, with some reports saying as many as 300 have been killed. Even, the regime opened fire on those who were mourning others who had been killed. Why do you think that the Libyan regime has especially come down extremely brutal in dealing with protesters?
Yougeen Dabous: I think what the colleague from Damascus mentioned is very important with respect to Libya. There are no mechanisms to release the pressure in Libya. So, it is either everything or nothing. Even countries like Tunisia or Yemen have a certain level of civil society which has permitted possibly just to release pressure, whereas in Libya, the government has zero tolerance for opposition, therefore, any opposition will be crushed in its initial stages, thus the massive violence that we are seeing today, because Gaddafi knows that if he gives a finger, the country will take not only a hand but the entire arm.
/106