Ahlul Bayt News Agency, However, the group has not only refused to leave the scene but even grown stronger everyday in the past recent months in a way that today some think the solution lies in compromising with them.
Regardless of the fact that the scheme to hold negotiations with the Taliban will be basically regarded as a retreat and a kind of failure for the Afghan government as well as the foreign countries present in the country, the point remains that the Afghanistan government and President Hamid Karzai in person have been earnestly insisting on this plan. They see the Taliban as softer now and ready for compromises rather than confrontations.
However, there is no doubt that this big objective is facing many big obstacles as well. An all-out review of the issue and the questions and doubts raised about it could pave the way for assessments of whether the scheme will be successful.
What is the Afghanistan government’s plan for negotiating with the Taliban?
The Afghan government has announced that by negotiating with the Taliban, it aims at establishing peace in the country. The Afghan officials have recently announced their intention to integrate 36,000 Taliban members into society in the next 5 years. To gain this objective, Kabul has asked for dlrs 773 million of aids. The Afghan government has said that it will start talks with the United Nations Security Council in a transparent manner to take the names of some of the Taliban members out of the black list mentioned in the UNSC 1267 Resolution. Meanwhile, the Afghan officials have assured the countries and parties who are concerned about the outcomes of compromises with the Taliban that the process will maintain the social freedom addressed in the country’s Constitution.
- Is there a single definition of “the Taliban”?
When talking about negotiations with the Taliban, the first thing to get in mind is “who exactly are the Taliban?”. Though some seemingly think that the group is too well-known to require a definition, they have to note that there is still no clear-cut definition and even knowledge about the nature, ideals and viewpoints of the group. In other words, though the issue of negotiations with the Taliban has been hanging over Afghanistan in the past one year by the Afghan government and foreign forces, they have failed to offer a transparent definition as to whom they talk as the Taliban. Terrorists, insurgents, combatants, rebels, dissident brothers, the Afghan branch of the Al-Qaeda and the extremist Islamists are just some of the terms used to refer to the Taliban. This diversity of descriptions in itself clearly points to the lack of an identical, single definition of the group.
- Has the Taliban suffered a decline in power in the recent years?
Putting an end to the rule of the Taliban was announced as the main reason for the US-led invasion to Afghanistan. However, the present situation of the Taliban gives enough reason to think that despite the elapse of so many years since the invasion, it has not only refused to decline but has gained ever-growing power in the country and even managed to progress in Afghanistan. According to certain reports, at least 10 out of 34 Afghanistan provinces - mainly those neighboring Pakistan – are ruled by the Taliban and the group has successfully penetrated into central, western and northern provinces as well.
BBC has revealed that - based on a UN report - the number of civilian casualties of the violence in Afghanistan has risen by 31 percent. The increase comes at a time when based on the same report, the number of the casualties of the NATO operations has been dropping.
President Karzai has always been critical of the fact that the civilian casualty caused by the NATO operations has triggered more violence in his country. Nonetheless, a number of human rights organizations have made the point that there have been no real protests by the Afghan government and non-governmental organizations against the casualties caused by the Taliban.
- Negotiations or trials?
The issue of talks with the Taliban was supported by the Afghanistan government and encourage by some other countries in spite of the calls by some groups and countries that are seeking arrest and trial of the Taliban members on war crime charges. The Amnesty International is one of the organizations belonging to the latter group. It urges the Afghan government to ask the International Tribunal of War Crimes to investigate the war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by parties of the war.
Human rights groups have constantly criticized the Taliban but this is the first time that an international human rights organization is seeking investigations into its performance and trial of its members in an international tribunal. Political observes maintain that this would be only too difficult to materialize in Afghanistan.
- Is the Taliban for the talks?
Contrary to the strong desire of the Afghanistan government for the talks, the Taliban leaders have not only refused to welcome it, but even strongly opposed the idea.
A Taliban spokesman has recently stated in a written interview with a British media that the group will not succumb to talks as long as foreign forces were present in Afghanistan. He said that the group had nothing to talk about with anyone because it was sure that it will win the war.
He said what the Afghanistan government was offering was not an invitation to negotiations but an invitation to surrender because the afghan government wanted the group to endorse the Constitution which was compiled under the rule of foreign forces, to first put down their arms and then come to the negotiation table. The spokesman described the whole thing as a call to surrender.
Many believe that this disinclination on the part of the Taliban for negotiations is rooted in its recent successes in strengthening its position in Afghanistan. The group believes it is the winner of the war and as such sees no reason to help the NATO by sitting down for negotiations.
- Is negotiating with the Taliban a backward move towards the era of extremism?
The government has announces that it will not sacrifice the social rights of its citizens for talks with the Taliban. But many are concerned that government’s decision to talk to the Taliban will pave the way for the return of the group’s extremist views to the scene of the Afghan life. The concerns seem quite grounded given the fact that the Taliban has stressing that it would not forsake its views at any rate. It should be remembered that the Taliban says it is seeking rule of its own version of the Sharia in the society rather than working for gaining political dominance over the country.
Human Rights Watch, as an international human rights organization, has warned that compromises with the Taliban might put the Afghan women in danger. In a 70-page report, the organization showed that the women living in areas ruled by the Taliban have been subjected to violence or event threatened to death. Noting that the Karzai administration is prone to sacrificing the rights of women as part of the compromises with the Taliban, it said that safeguarding rights of women should be an integral part of any kind of efforts to make compromises with the group.
- Does the Taliban benefit from the US dollars?
The US Congress has complained that a part of US military budget goes into the pocket of the Taliban. According to BBC, the report said the US army paid tens of millions of dollars weekly to Afghan security firms to protect its logistic convoys but the money eventually turned up in the pockets of warlords and the Taliban in the form of bribes and blackmail money paid to them.
In fact, one major cause for the rise of the Taliban and other similar groups in Afghanistan in recent years has been the unhealthy economic system, extensive poverty and corruption among government officials. Even if the Afghan government manages to attract a number of the Taliban members to the society, the risk is high that they will go back to the Taliban due to increased insecurity and poverty.
- Is the US exit plan to the interest of the Taliban?
The US officials feel uncertain whether they should implement their plans to exit Afghanistan in June 2011 when they think of the present position of the Taliban in the country. Critics of the plan stress that any such program should be based on the real situation of the country rather than on pre-determined dates. They believe if the country is not stable enough yet, the exit of US forces will only further embolden the Taliban and prolong the war.
- Conclusion: Where Afghanistan is heading for?
Security remains as the main source of concern for Afghanistan. After almost one decade of the presence of the US-led foreign forces there and despite the huge casualties, the country is still dreaming of the minimum security. Naturally enough, that would be impossible to construct the country based on long-term development plans in absence of security.
The military presence of the US and its allies has not led to enhanced security for Afghan civilians. Ironically enough, the foreign forces themselves have now fallen prey to insecurity problems. 103 western forces – 60 of them Americans - have been killed in Afghanistan only this June. Now, it seems that foreign countries are feeling compelled to make further use of the Afghanistan government and ask it to shoulder more responsibilities in political and security arenas.
The failure of Afghanistan’s government in maintaining security in the country will eventually lead to fresh foreign interventions in the country. Certain remarks made by some western officials gives rise to concerns that contrary to claims, alien forces are not that inclined to leave the country. They are just trying to lower the number of their casualties by putting the burden on Afghan officials.
One thing is clear. The US and its allies who invaded Afghanistan 9 years ago, had nothing positive to offer to the country. Now after so many years of bloodsheding and violence, they have started to realize that there is no military solution to the many crises in the country. Rather, they now know that constructing economic infrastructures, empowering the government and setting up necessary institutions is the key to success. However, unless the Afghan government manages to increase its military, security and economic strength, it will not succeed in relieving the nation from many security and economic burdens. Thus, plans like negotiations with the Taliban, will certainly solve not even one single problem in Afghanistan if they are not well-calculated. Rather, such a plan, like silence before a hurricane, will only be a sign of even more bitter days for a nation which has already suffered much.
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