AhlulBayt News Agency

source : Al-Waght News
Wednesday

18 December 2024

4:47:16 AM
1514599

Analysis: Can Syria collapse scenario be applied to Yemen’s Ansarullah?

With the collapse of Bashar al-Assad government and takeover of the power by the armed opposition in Syria, Netanyahu and other Israeli officials caught in the dark days caused by Hamas's Operation Al-Aqsa Storm all of a sudden found a new chance after back-to-back security setbacks in Gaza and Lebanon and are seeking to make the most out of this historic opportunity to tip the regional equations scales and break the security encirclement imposed on them by the Axis of Resistance.

AhlulBayt News Agency: With the collapse of Bashar al-Assad government and takeover of the power by the armed opposition in Syria, Netanyahu and other Israeli officials caught in the dark days caused by Hamas's Operation Al-Aqsa Storm all of a sudden found a new chance after back-to-back security setbacks in Gaza and Lebanon and are seeking to make the most out of this historic opportunity to tip the regional equations scales and break the security encirclement imposed on them by the Axis of Resistance.

Full destruction of the Syrian military equipment and easy advances deep into Syria in a few days were things the Israelis could not dream of, especially that they have not faced opposition from the Arab countries and even the armed opposition that are celebrating their power gain. 

Intoxicated by this easy gain, Netanyahu has once again talked about his ambitions and changing the regional order. Meanwhile, in recent days, Israeli media put Yemen on the top of the next targets of Netanyahu and talked about imminent attacks on regions controlled by Ansarullah. 

Since the Israeli war on Gaza began on October 8, Yemen has been one of the most active and influential anti-Israeli fronts putting economic and security pressures on Tel Aviv through Red Sea blockade and launching recurrent missile and drone attacks on sensitive and strategic Israeli sites, to an extent that getting rid of the current situation has become a top priority to Netanyahu for conclusion of Gaza war. 

Positive response of Sana'a opponents; applying Aleppo scenario on Hudaydah 

Recent Syria developments have motivated Aden cabinet leaders about taking the power in Sana'a. After Netanyahu talked about his evil intention to strike Sana'a, they voiced their readiness to align with the Israeli and American plans in Yemen.

In a statement, Mohammed al-Hadhrami, the Saudi-affiliated cabinet ambassador to the United States, presented three "proposed" measures for the new US strategy in Yemen during his appearance in the US Senate, including: Classifying the Houthis as foreign terrorist organizations similar to Lebanon's Hezbollah, supporting government forces and their allies to retake the port of Hudaydah, and targeting Ansarullah leaders to destroy its leadership structure." 

Al-Hadhrami further said that anti-Ansarullah forces have the sufficient resolve and manpower to counter what he called the" threats of this group and Iran in the Red Sea", however, adding that they cannot do this alone. 

In this connection, Tariq Saleh, a member of the Presidential Leadership Council and the UAE-aligned Republican Guard on the West Coast, also directly referred to the necessity of attacking the port of Hudaydah, adding: "The fate of Abdul Malik Al-Houthi in Sanaa will be no different from the fate of Assad in Damascus," referring to Ansarullah's leader. 

The naming and emphasis on the port city of Hudaydah is not accidental, and the strategic position of this city for the Ansarullah-led National Salvation Government (NSG) can be considered equal to that of Aleppo as the economic hub of Syria.

Since the Saudi-Emirati coalition invaded Yemen in 2015 and imposed complete economic blockade of the country, the port of Hudaydah has been the main center for receiving humanitarian aid and importing goods and fuel needed by the areas under Ansarullah control, and its revenues are also very important for the NSG in Sana'a. 

As a result, the strategic importance of controlling this city has made Hudaydah the point of focus of the Saudi-Ansarallah conflict since at least 2017, with the peak of the war dating back to June 2018, which led to a ceasefire agreement in December of the same year.

It was essentially the understanding of Hudaydah’s strategic position for Ansarallah that led the Israelis to strike the portsof Ras Issa and Hudaydah in September in reaction to the successful and surprise drone and missile operations in Tel Aviv.

Actually, there is no doubt that the capture of Hudaydah by the southern forces will deal a severe blow to the economic and living conditions of the people in the areas controlled by the NSG and could be a major victory for the Aden cabinet, equivalent to the seizure of Aleppo by the Syrian militants.

Meanwhile, another important point in this new plan is the behind-the-scenes efforts that are being made to identify a new figure as the leader of the changes who can, like Muhammad al-Jolani among the Syrian militants, bring all the forces opposing Sana'a to a consensus around him.

This figure is Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, the youngest son of the former Yemeni dictator and former ambassador of Sana'a to Egypt, who has been active in recent days and went to Cairo on his first trip since the lifting of UN sanctions, where he was welcomed by Egyptian officials. The visit, according to observers, was paid to send political messages about beginning of a new phase of developments in Yemen.

Sana'a is not Damascus; Ansarullah ready for all scenarios

Like Syria developments, the anti-Yemeni front began with psychological warfare against Sana'a, where the Western and Arab media outlets are spreading the allegations of fear and worry among Ansarullah leaders after collapse of government of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. 

However, neither Ansarallah nor the Yemeni armed forces have demonstrated the confusion and fragility of the Syrian government and army, nor is the political, social, and geographical environment of Yemen fundamentally similar to Syria.

Initially, in order to show that it was not afraid of the Israeli threats and the enemy's psychological warfare, while announcing that it was ready for any scenario, Ansarullah immediately after the fall of Damascus to armed opposition, successfully carried out a new wave of missile and drone attacks against Israel, signaling that it has not fallen into a defensive position and, in addition to continuing the mission of supporting Gaza, it could still respond to any threat in the most severe way possible, and that adventurism would not have a happy ending for the Israelis, nor for all other regional and domestic parties. 

The power of Ansarullah has been tested over the past year by the world's biggest naval power and its allies in the Red Sea. Actually, the repeated admissions by the American officials about failure of the pro-Israeli naval coalition in the Red Sea, officially called Guardian of Prosperity, bear witness to the power of Ansarullah. 

On the other side are the united ranks that are not made so far by opponents of Ansarullah. The Southern Transitional Council (STC) that holds a majority of the southern provinces has not expressed its happiness as openly as the Presidential Leadership Council about collapse of Damascus to the opposition in compliance with its backer and ally the UAE. Indeed, the STC that seeks to separate the south would not accept a leader or authority from the north to take control of Yemen. This reality over the past years has marred agreements with Saudi-affiliated Presidential Leadership Council, leading to escape of cabinet ministers from Aden. 

Another significant issue is the regional aspect of any Israeli coalition attacking Ansarullah that will certainly draw response from the Axis of Resistance and Iran and will sink the whole region into a crisis, a crisis whose victims will be the Persian Gulf Arab monarchies that share territorial borders and vital interests with Yemen in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.


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