It is clear that no country is as happy as Turkey with the recent developments in Syria, and this sense of satisfaction is clearly visible in the remarks of senior Ankara officials. However, the future of this victory depends on Turkey's ability to translate its field achievements into political arrangements that guarantee its interests, especially given the complex challenges it faces inside Syria and the entire region.
No one is more satisfied these days than the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has achieved his dream in Syria after 13 years, because he has been given an exceptional opportunity to save himself from the political and security dilemma in which he was caught.
In his speech after the fall of Damascus, the Turkish leader said that the dark era in Syria is over and the light era has begun, and that Turkey will be with the Syrian people to beat their problems.
He now sees himself at the peak of power, having managed to bring the opposition to power in Syria, and he was so intoxicated by this victory that he claimed that he and the Russian president are currently the "only" two real leaders left in the world.
Silencing the internal opposition
That why the victory of the Turkish government is significant gain to Turkey is because of the shaky foundation of Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) at home.
In recent years, Erdogan has come under criticism from the opposition due to the widespread economic problems in Turkey and the Syrian refugee crisis in the country, to the extent that its effects were visible in the recent presidential and municipal elections, and the rivals were able to improve their position against the ruling party.
Since the Erdogan government is considered the largest supporter of the armed groups in Idlib, it is trying to exploit this situation to its advantage and has set priorities for implementing Turkey's plans in Syria.
In this regard, the Hurriyet newspaper of Turkey wrote on Monday, citing sources familiar with Ankara's political position on the developments in Syria, that the first priority is to manage the transition of power in the Arab country and create a new Syria. The second priority is to fight the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its affiliate People's Protection Units (YPG). The third is to ensure the return of Syrian refugees from Turkey to their homeland.
Around 3.5 million Syrian refugees are now in Turkey, and Erdogan is trying to return them to their country.
With the return of refugees, the AKP will reduce the burden of economic problems on the government in order to compensate for some of the losses it has suffered in recent years. On the other hand, it can also present it as an achievement in foreign policy to opposition parties at home, and after the return of refugees is completed, opposition parties will lose the pressure card they used against the government.
In dealing with separatist groups in northern Syria, which Erdogan considers a threat to Turkey's security and existence, space has been created to cleanse these areas of terrorist groups in Turkey's favor with the help of armed groups.
To this end, since the beginning, the armed groups started confrontation of the US-supported militias in Kurdish-majority Manbij in eastern Aleppo to implement the dictates of Ankara.
Turkey feigning regional achievements
Though Erdogan’s home position has improved, at a regional level, challenges still lie ahead.
"The new phase may open the way for the emergence of new threats, with the entry of several parties seeking to benefit from the current situation, indicating that Turkey will continue to work to protect its gains through its military strategies," Kutluhan Gorucu, a researcher at Turkey's SETA political research institute, told Aljazeera.
Stating that Turkey's assessment of its military presence in Syria depends on developments on the ground and the clarity of the final picture of the Syrian reality, Gorucu maintained: "Ankara is determined to strengthen its role in the formation of the new Syrian regime by investing in strategic gains and ensuring long-term stability, taking into account regional and international variables."
Due to his ambitious personality, Erdogan has faced serious challenges with regional countries in the past decade and the results of this policy were negative for Ankara, to the extent that due to the economic crisis in Turkey and the impasse in its plans in Syria, it was forced to make a 180-degree turn to normalize Ankara's relations with the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf in order to escape regional isolation.
Considering the experience of the past two decades and Erdogan's frequent foreign policy shifts, it is a bit difficult to predict the future of Turkey's plans regarding developments in Syria and the region.
It is still unclear whether Turkey's openness to the Arabs, which was driven by domestic and regional difficulties, will remain strong or whether Ankara's conflict of interests in Syria, which is unwilling to share this lion share with others, will lead to tension with the Arabs, who also have their eyes on a powerful entry into the political and economic arena of Syria.
It is certain that the present Syria needs foreign investment to get rid of the current troubled situation with the reconstruction of the infrastructure. Meanwhile, Turkey alone cannot bear all the costs of rebuilding Syria, and if it decides to continue its confrontational approach to other actors in the region, it will face troubles advancing its Syria agenda.
Reviving neo-Ottoman project
The neo-Ottoman plan Erdogan has drawn for territorial expansion in Iraq and Syria using the conflicts of armed groups is still on the table of the Turkish leader, and perhaps the instability in Syria will once again push Ankara leaders to its enforcement.
The joy of Turkish nationalist parties over the developments in Aleppo, which was once the most important city in the Ottoman Empire due to its strategic location, shows that Ankara's leaders are secretly pursuing evil plans in northern Syria as well.
The creation of a buffer zone with a radius of up to 30 kilometers was also proposed on this basis, and now the rise of armed groups in Syria has provided Erdogan with a good opportunity to implement it if necessary.
Although Erdogan will remain in power until 2028 and, according to the constitution he cannot register as a candidate for election, and he had even said before that he had no desire to run in the upcoming elections, perhaps the developments in Syria will progress as Erdogan wants, especially if he moves towards stability and the reconstruction of a new political system, but the Turkish political scene will change in the 2028 elections.
So, by ending the refugees crisis, pushing back separatist groups from Turkish borders, getting the suffering economy back on the track and reducing inflation, Erdogan can certainly improve his position against rivals. He recently said that all the politicians in the world go, but he and the Russian President Vladimir Putin remain, suggesting that he has plans for political future.
Dim outlook for Ankara
The end of Baathist Party and Assad family rule in Syria rocks like a tsunami, leaving its impacts not only on Turkey but the whole region.
Given the new Syrian situation, Erdogan is now running rampant as a victorious man, but with the presence of various militant groups with conflicting agenda and ideology, it is unclear the Turkish happiness will last long. After all, observers suggest that in the absence of a central government, the Syrian situation can drift to chaos and this is not in favor of Turkish security.
So far, the armed groups have had no other way than cooperation with Turkey to realize their aims, but now the situation is different after Assad's fall and they are now in a position to independently form government and odds are they change their approach to their former supporters and this is what Ankara leaders are afraid of.
From another aspect, Turkey is resolved to suppress the
separatist groups. Therefore, political experts hold that military
intervention in northern Syria will inflame instability and this is
mostly dangerous to Turkish security. So, it can be said that the
outlook of Syria developments is not positive for Turkey in the long
run.
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