In a speech last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that "we are in favor of the early conclusion of the peace treaty and the unblocking of communications. Unfortunately, it is the Armenian leadership that is sabotaging the agreement signed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan regarding communication through the Syunik region of Armenia. It is difficult to understand the meaning of such a position."
Lavrov's comments were then followed by other Russian officials' remarks to show that the Kremlin has dreams for the conflict between Yerevan and Baku. In this regard, Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said in a statement that Zangzor corridor is a route that can connect mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Syunik. Unblocking Zangzor will definitely be discussed in the framework of the tripartite peace talks with Armenia, she added.
At the end of the 44-day Karabakh conflict that culminated with the victory of Azerbaijan in 2020, the two neighbors signed a ceasefire agreement with Russian mediation that included terms to open routes for transportation.
As the article 9 of the agreement says, "all economic and transportation connections in the region must be unblocked. Armenia guarantees the security of transport connections between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan in order to arrange the unhindered movement of people, vehicles and cargo in both directions."
Azerbaijan strongly believes that article 9 includes the opening of the Zangzor corridor, but the Armenian authorities believe that the 2020 agreement does not mention the construction of this corridor. On the other hand, Armenian officials argue that this article of the agreement was in return for Baku's commitment to open the Lachin Corridor for Armenia's access to the autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan completely seized in November last year. Therefore, the one who violated the treaty is Azerbaijan. Also, the Armenian government considers Azerbaijan's definition of the Zangzor corridor as providing Baku sovereign rights and unlimited access to the Nakhchivan region without any Armenian checkpoint as a misinterpretation of this article.
The reason why Russia changed its position
The Russian shift of position regarding Caucasus developments came after the visit to Azerbaijan of the Russian President Vladimir Putin last month, and it seems that Karabakh developments were a major discussion topic in this visit. This comes while earlier Russia had a neutral stance regarding the conflict in the region and never openly expressed its position. This passiveness was, indeed, regarded in favor of the Azerbaijani side since Moscow and Yerevan had a security pact and Armenia was part of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and wanted military intervention against Azerbaijan.
The Russians argued that the task of the CSTO is to protect the internationally recognized borders, but Karabakh is recognized as an occupied region, and therefore refused to send troops. The decline to deploy troops and the reduction of Russia's support to Armenia ultimately motivated Yerevan to withdraw from the bloc, and as a result of this move, the relations with the Russians went chilly. Even Yerevan held joint military exercises with the US for the first time since independence in the 1990s, arousing the ire of the Russians.
Though it is likely that Russia is taking such a position to punish Armenia for separating ways from Moscow, there are other issues involved in this new Russian approach.
The Ukraine crisis and Western sanctions against Russia have seriously hampered transportation from Russia to Europe and, naturally, interest in alternative routes has increased. Therefore, the Zangzor corridor is a trade route that can connect Central Asia and the Caucasus. The so-called corridor of Azerbaijan is actually a geopolitical project that connects Europe to Central Asia and China through the Azerbaijan-Turkey route.
The expansion of the railway network of Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey will increase Moscow's regional and international trade in the midst of sanctions. The inter-Caspian transport system, including the East-West-Middle ways, and North-South routes, are the driving force behind Russian interest in this case.
The Russians, who are not hopeful for return of relations with the West to pre-war period, intend to boost their trade using eastern corridors. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan can play a significant role in realizing Moscow wishes.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan is very important for Russia because of its oil reserves and being on the route of the North-South Corridor, so with the help of this country, Moscow can neutralize part of the Western sanctions.
The volume of trade between Russia and Azerbaijan has taken on an exponential trend in recent years and reached $4.3 billion in 2023, showing a 35 percent growth compared to 2021. Therefore, Russia is trying to consolidate its relations with Azerbaijan by backing Baku's plans in Caucasus.
Also, another issue regarding Russia's position is the attention to the support process of the West, especially Europe, for the completion of the East-West Corridor to connect with China. Contrary to the political show of supporting Armenia, Westerners actually see more benefits in cooperation with Azerbaijan and therefore have no objection to the establishment of the desired corridor of Azerbaijan. In the meantime, Russia's intention is to preemptively prevent the dominance of the Westerners in the management of this corridor and take the initiative itself, because Armenia will never submit to the management of Baku and Ankara over the corridor even if it agrees to the construction of such a corridor.
Iran losing patience
Despite Russian support for the Zangzor project, Iran still stands on its principles against any geopolitical changes in the Caucasus. Iranian officials have warned that any attempt to change the borders or geopolitical dynamics in the region will not be tolerated. Iran actually sees the corridor project as a great threat to its geopolitical and economic interests in the region, and perhaps the goal of its rivals is to geopolitically choke Tehran in this region.
For Iran, Zangzor corridor represents a potential threat to Tehran's access to Armenia and consequently to Europe. Historically, Iran has opposed the efforts by Azerbaijan and Turkey to construct this corridor. Iran is sensitive to developments in the South Caucasus and will never tolerate changing its borders and security developments.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last week in an X post said that "any threat against the territorial integrity of our neighbors, or the redrawing of borders, whether in the north, in the south, in the east or in the west, is unacceptable and is a red line for Iran."
The resolute reaction of the officials of the Islamic Republic indicates that Tehran is fully aware of the process of developments and emphasizes its commitment to protect its geopolitical interests and to keep the historical borders with Armenia and the Caucasus open.
Iran believes that no factor gives priority to the security and geopolitical position of a country in the South Caucasus region over other countries. Therefore, Moscow should never expect to resort to the Zangzor corridor idea to resolve differences with Armenia.
Also, Russia was recommended by Iran to avoid measures that could damage the strategic relations between Tehran and Moscow because Zangzor corridor will represent a new combustion point next to the extremely sensitive northwestern borders of Iran.
Iran has taken new initiatives to show that it is against any geopolitical changes in the Caucasus. In October 2022, Iran opened its consulate in the city of Kapan in Armenia, and on Saturday, the Alavardi bridge was opened in the presence of the Iranian ambassador and the Minister of Infrastructure of Armenia on the borders of the two countries, and this is a signal to the actors in the region that Tehran will not allow the Caucasus to be a compromise for other powers.
Iranian officials believe that in the past one year, when Russia had a passive stance on Zangzor, the position of Baku officials had softened towards the developments in the Caucasus, with Baku putting Zangzor project on the back burner and talking about alternative corridors from inside Iran to connect to Nakhchivan. Even the first military exercises between Iran and Azerbaijan were held in June of this year in order to clean up and deal with terrorism in the Aras border region, and it showed that Baku is moving in the direction of interaction and stabilization in the Caucasus and has given up its ambitions. But with the new positions of the Russians, Tehran is worried that the leaders of Azerbaijan will consider this change in Moscow's position as a green light for the construction of the Zangzor corridor and try to implement this ambitious project with military action, which will lead the region to a new crisis.
Additionally, Turkey as the biggest backer of Azerbaijan in the region may once again support its ally's push for its project on the strength of Moscow green light.
Last year, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey openly
said that Iran is the main obstacle to construction of Zangzor and Baku
should settle its problems with its southern neighbor, showing that
Ankara does not insist on this project given the regional developments.
But if Ankara once again backs Baku, President Ilham Aliyev of
Azerbaijan may again grow daring and sieze the opportunity to realize
his wishes.
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