Israeli media outlets reported that Mossad chief David Barnia left for Doha on Friday to discuss a ceasefire and prisoner swap deal with the Qatari emir. The negotiations seem to have made some progress and the Mossad chief has expressed optimism about a deal. Yedioth Aharonot newspaper, citing an informed source, reported that a deal can be reached within two or three weeks.
Israel's Channel 13 announced that for the first time in months, there is optimism in Israel about the possibility of concluding a swap deal, but this is subject to the approval of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
A prominent source in the Hamas movement told Reuters on Saturday that according to the revised and proposed agreement between the movement and Tel Aviv, the negotiations for the release of the Israeli prisoners, including soldiers and settlers, will be held within 16 days after the start of the first phase of the agreement.
According to the agreement, the mediators guarantee the implementation of the temporary ceasefire agreement, the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip and the withdrawal of the Israeli forces. This process will continue until the continuation of indirect negotiations for the implementation of the second phase of the agreement, reported Reuters.
In order to show that it is serious about the ceasefire negotiations and not to give excuses to the Israelis, Hamas has shown flexibility this time and waived its condition to stop the war with international guarantees in the first phase of the agreement and postponed it to the continuation of the negotiations until the implementation in the second phase. The reformed plan of Hamas has been given to Tel Aviv so that the Israeli cabinet can have its final say on it.
Still, Netanyahu's office announced in a statement that the two sides still disagree on some issues. The office also announced that the negotiating team of this regime will visit to Qatar to continue the indirect negotiations on the exchange of prisoners with Palestinian groups.
CNN, citing a source in the US government, reported that a framework has been established regarding the agreement between Tel Aviv and Hamas for the release of prisoners and the establishment of a ceasefire in Gaza. These statements were made after a phone call between US President Joe Biden and Netanyahu on Thursday evening.
The talks between Hamas and Israel are based on the proposals of Joe Biden, who in late May presented a three-stage ceasefire plan for Gaza, which includes a road map to end the conflict and release prisoners.
According to this plan, the first phase includes a general ceasefire, the withdrawal of the occupying regime's soldiers from all residential areas, and the release of some prisoners held by Hamas, including the elderly, the wounded, and women, and the release of Palestinian prisoners. The second stage allows the release of all surviving prisoners, including male soldiers.
The third phase includes a plan to begin the reconstruction of war-torn Gaza, which according to the UN report, 60 percent of its vital infrastructure has been destroyed by indiscriminate attacks.
Given the Israeli disloyalty to its promises, the leaders of Hamas have said that they do not trust the promises of Netanyahu and the American government. In this context, Osama Hamdan, a member of Hamas's political bureau, emphasized on Saturday that mediators "must guarantee what is agreed upon in the negotiations with the Zionist regime."
Also, despite the fact that Hamas has shown flexibility in relation to full stop of war, it still insists on its key demands and conditions. The resistance leaders insist on the complete withdrawal of the occupying forces from Rafah and the Philadelphi corridor and the reopening of this corridor for delivery of humanitarian aid. Regarding the release of some Palestinian prisoners in the Israeli prison, whose release the extremists of Tel Aviv have opposed, Hamas does not accept any excuses in this regard and has handed over the list of the names of the prisoners who should be released, and if Israeli opposes this demand, talks are likely to halt.
Netanyahu fluctuating between war and negotiations
Although hopes have been revived for the signing of a ceasefire agreement, the prospects for talks remain bleak. The stance of the resistance is clear and it has declared its readiness to continue the talks and reach a final solution to stop the war, but there are gaps in the Israeli camp that make the final decision difficult.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a hardliner who is determined to destroy the Palestinians and insists on continuation of the war until the end of Hamas, is threatening Netanyahu every day, saying that if the PM takes a unilateral decision without consulting him, he will withdraw from the government.
Ben-Gvir's hardline positions have put Netanyahu at a difficult dilemma because with the departure of Ben-Gvir's party, the cabinet will collapse and early elections must be held, and since the internal political conditions of the occupied territories are not in favor of the extremists, their defeat is certain. This will mark the end of Netanyahu's political life and he may be tried and imprisoned for the failure in Gaza and corruption cases.
On the other hand, on the eve of the US presidential election, where the chances of Donald Trump's victory are higher, Netanyahu will probably try to prolong the war in Gaza until the coming months and strengthen his political position with the arrival of Trump. Because Trump has taken more aligned positions on the continuation of the crimes of the Israeli regime in Gaza in order to attract more evangelicals and the Zionist lobby.
Another important issue is the possibility that Netanyahu's government considers the flexibility of Hamas in the ceasefire negotiations as a sign of weakness and stops the negotiations thinking that it can wrest concessions from the resistance movement through war.
The main goal of the Israeli cabinet to attack Gaza was to destroy Hamas and disarm Gaza and release prisoners, which has not achieved success so far, but perhaps it sees this flexibility as an opportunity to get more privileges from the resistance movement and show it off to home critics as a military feat.
Despite all these possibilities, the flexibility of Hamas in the negotiations is not due to weakness and desperation, but to show goodwill and not give excuses to the enemy and its backers, otherwise, the resistance groups have shown in the last ten months that they have the necessary strength to confront the occupying enemy and not only have they not been weakened, but also they have been able to deal strong blows to the Israeli military.
In this relation, Hamas leaders said they will not ink agreement at any expense and they can fight for a long time, and the casualties they have inflicted on the enemy forces in recent weeks across Gaza is expressive of the fact that resistance is still at peak and any obstruction of the ceasefire will bring a heavy price to Tel Aviv. The policy of destroying Hamas is also an illusory effort and the Israeli security officials themselves have admitted that they are far from capable of doing so.
In addition to the power of resistance, another big obstacle standing in front of Netanyahu's ambitions is the widespread protests at home, where the Israeli citizens every day demand the government to stop the war and return their prisoners.
Polls suggest that a majority of Israelis want Netanyahu out of power and find him the main cause of insecurity in the occupied territories. Now that Hamas has shown flexibility, the Israelis do not tolerate the government's hesitation in this regard and demand an end to the war and the release of their prisoners. Because the continuation of the war in Gaza, at the same time as the tensions with Hezbollah in the north, will expand the scope of the war and risks further insecurity for the occupied territories. In this regard, the families of the prisoners pledged that if the Netanyahu government cancels the new agreement on the exchange of prisoners, they will organize a demonstration of millions, something showing that they will not allow this deal to go unsigned.
In general, given the
flexibility Hamas has shown, now the ball is in the Israeli court to
make a final decision. The hardliners now have no excuses to continue
the war as home and international pressures are mounting on them.
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