Media over the past three days reported a dramatic inflammation of clashes on the southern front, showing itself in three cases.
The first case is the intensive airstrikes launched by Israeli fighter jets on the Lebanese border town of Aitaroun and three attacks on Maroun El Ras that led to destruction of a neighborhood.
Along with Hezbollah’s continuous operations, a large number of border areas in Lebanon, including the suburbs of Naqura, Ataroun, Kenin, Mohaib, Ramyeh, Aita El Chaab, Marwahin, Al Tayba, and Kfarkela were targeted by harsh Israeli artillery attacks. Al-Jabain, Khallat Musa in the suburbs of Ramish and the area between Naqura and Ma’a Al-Chaab near a police station and Al-Awaida Hill in Tayyaba and Hammas Hill in Sardeh were also bombed among other areas.
Second case is the violation of entire Lebanese airspace by Israeli warplanes.
And the third one is Hezbollah’s ramp-up of operations against military sites around the Israeli border settlements. On Monday, Hezbollah kamikaze drones struck ‘new command post” of the Israeli army in the western part of Yara military camp 2 kilometers deep into the occupied territories, hitting their targets precisely and inflicting casualties on the Israeli forces. Then, the Lebanese movement targeted Jal Al-Alam, Zabdin, and Ramtha Al-Alam military sites on Kfar Shebaa hills and also a gathering of Israeli soldiers in Hawnin Castle in the Occupied Shebaa Farms with Burkan missiles. As a result of these attacks, the Israeli army confirmed a soldier was killed and another was injured, despite its heavy censorship on the casualties.
Israeli regime announced on Sunday it attacked Hezbollah infrastructure and missile launch sites inside Lebanon.
However, despite the escalation of clashes, these confrontations remain in a ‘controlled’ geographical area and in a measured pattern of behavior that prevents a large-scale war with Hezbollah, something, according to experts, demonstrating the extreme Israeli concern and caution to avoid opening an enormous front on its northern borders.
In evaluation of this Israeli approach, the fundamental and decisive factor is the scale of contentment of the Israelis with Gaza front developments. So, given the reality that the Israelis have not yet made any tangible gains in their push to take down Hamas and simultaneously media reporting a rise in Israeli casualties, Tel Aviv is severely afraid of war on its northern front.
Another issue that should not go unmentioned is Tel Aviv surprise about activation of Red Sea front against its maritime trade and the missile and drone attacks on its ships and ports that highlight the Yemeni threat.
From another aspect, Israeli attacks on Lebanon are more of warnings to undo Hezbollah gains amid the opportunity the latter is seizing to solidify its military might on the ever-controversial southern Lebanon borders with the occupied territories.
This reality fully shows itself in intensification of diplomatic activism of the Western backers of Tel Aviv and a demand by Israeli leaders for implementation of 1701 resolution. Last week, when French officials, including French president’s special envoy Jean-Yean Le Drian and intelligence chief Bernard Émié, visited Lebanon to discuss Gaza war developments with Beirut leaders, Lebanese media reported that the French raised with Beirut officials re-implementation of UN Security Council 1701 resolution.
In this connection, Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said that the French delegation told them that the conditions after October 7 are nothing like before it. He added that the French stressed on the need for the resolution to be enforced and “we voiced our readiness for commitment [to resolution].”
It is noteworthy that resolution 1701 is one of the resolutions of the Security Council that was approved on August 11, 2006 to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah and it emphasizes the need to return to the 1943 borders.
Raising this issue certainly plays into the interests of Israel to ensure security of its border settlements whose settlers fled their homes to the center and will not return without considerable security guarantees.
Apparent enough, Israel seeks to create its own favorable political situation by keeping Hezbollah away from the borders, because even now that a large-scale war has not broken out, Hezbollah’s Redwan elite forces have consolidated their position in the occupied Shebaa Farms, leaving no choice to Tel Aviv but to deploy a major part of its forces to northern front, and this distracts its full focus from Gaza. Meanwhile, the inability of Netanyahu’s cabinet to win the war against Hamas has increased internal pressures, especially from the families of the prisoners, on far-right coalition.
It is obvious that Western efforts are desperate because the Israelis who over the past decades have no given least attention to the international laws and UNSC resolutions with their excessive settlement construction in Lebanon’s occupied territories of Shebaa and Kfarchouba and never retreated from their occupation now want to utilize Western diplomacy to protect their security and maintain their legitimate gains.
Hezbollah approach: Gaza first, not resolution 1701
Lebanese media reported that Hezbollah told the French envoy that resolution 1701 is presently non-negotiable as Lebanon is “at war” with Israel. Remarks of Hezbollah officials, especially those of its chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, show that situation of the Israeli northern front is tied to Gaza front and once attacks on Gaza stop, Hezbollah attacks from the south will stop.
Those familiar with Hezbollah’s position believe that this movement will continue its military operations, clinging to its equation ‘Gaza first, not resolution 1701.’ And as a result, resorting to the political tactic of implementation of the resolution to force it to retreat has no chance of success, and at present making concessions to Israelis does not serve Lebanon or Hezbollah.
Therefore, Hezbollah is expected to embark on recapture of Shebaa Farms and Kfarchouba as a long-term goal once it realizes its strategic goal of dealing painful blows to the Israeli sites along the border. This goal is now fully accessible given the fact that the field situation is way different from the past and Hezbollah has managed to double and even triple its arsenal.
In short, the Western negotiation to re-implement the resolution 1701
to steer clear of Lebanon involvement in an all-out war is totally
biased and serves the Israeli interests.
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