According to Arab news outlets, the hasty moves that have been made in recent days indicate that the Lebanese factions are close to a consensus on a presidential candidate. To this end, even meetings have been held with Hezbollah and Amal Movement’s candidate. Suleiman Franjieh, the head of Maradah Movement, who is the choice of Hezbollah and its ally Amal Movement, has reportedly met the Saudi ambassador Walid al-Bukhari. Even Qatari envoy has recently visited Beirut and met with Lebanese officials. However, it cannot be confidently said that all differences over election of a president have been settled.
Having in mind that a large part of Lebanon’s developments are directed by foreign actors, a political deal in Lebanon is a dream not coming true as long as foreign countries continue to set up roadblocks ahead of the country’s stability. Hezbollah has nominated Franjieh as its candidate, but some political factions submissive to the policies of Saudi Arabia have opposed this choice, and Qatar stresses on Joseph Khalil Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese armed forces. But so far no consensus has been reached.
The opposition bloc insists that the Shiite coalition must announce its final candidate before the parliament’s deadline. Two Christian parties, Lebanese Forces led by Samir Geagea and Free Patriotic Union (FPU) led by Gibran Basil, who is an ally of Hezbollah, have opposed the candidacy of Franjieh, but Hezbollah officials have said that they are resolved about this candidate despite the opposition of their ally. Some experts believe that the developments in the region in recent months will affect the possible agreement of the Lebanese factions on a candidate for the presidency.
This Lebanese political activism comes as two months ago, Iran ad Saudi Arabia resumed their diplomatic relations after seven years of tensions, subsequently causing the regional developments to head to convergence. Readmission of Syria to the Arab League and the announcement of the readiness of some Arab states to improve relations with Iran can leave a positive impact on the internal developments of Lebanon. As some sources announced two weeks ago, the Saudis are trying to meet with the representatives of Hezbollah and it is possible that the Franjieh’s meeting with the ambassador of Riyadh was done on the recommendation of Hezbollah to give the Saudis the assurance that if he is elected, he can have good relations with the kingdom.
It is certain that leaders of the Lebanese opposition are pawns of the Saudis and if Riyadh gives them a green light for settling their differences with Hezbollah, path of Lebanon stability will be paved. After the recent agreement between Tehran and Riyadh, al-Bukhari said that the election of the Lebanese president depended on the opinion of the country’s political parties and that Riyadh will support any choice of the Lebanese.
Deadline until June 15
Having announced its readiness to settle differences and elect a president and then a prime minister, Hezbollah still stretches out its hand to other parties for a consensus to solve the challenges the country is grappling with. This approach is clear in speeches of Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
The Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, addressed the country’s political parties last week, saying that they only have time until June 15 to choose a new president, and asked them to hold consultations as soon as possible. The Deputy Secretary-General of Hezbollah Sheikh Naeem Ghasem said in a statement that they do not impose their option on anyone and that each party should name its preferred option so that “we can vote on them in the parliament.”
The Hezbollah and Amal coalition has already made its decision on the candidacy of Franjieh and is going to appear in the next session of the parliament to end the months-long political deadlock if the other parties are convinced.
11 voting sessions have been held so far, but no candidate secured the vote quorum. Although so far the political parties have not had their final say on any choice, and it is unclear where the next session will head, it seems that this time the country will have a high chance of electing a president as regional mediation is stepped up.
According to Lebanon's constitution, in order to elect the president, the first voting process is based on the votes of two-thirds of the participating lawmakers, and in the next terms, the president needs to secure the half plus one of the votes, that is, at least 65 seats out of 128 seats in the parliament, but none of the parties have adequate seats to elect a president outright and, therefore, have to agree on a candidate.
Political weight of the FPU
To get its candidate elected as a president, Hezbollah needs support of the Christians of the FPU. Reports said that Hezbollah representative will meet Bassil next week and seek to convince the party to agree to Franjieh. Despite Hezbollah support to Franjieh, the FPU officials have repeatedly said that if there is a better choice, they will advocate it to restore political stability to the country.
Sayyed Nasrallah said in one of his speeches about the Lebanese presidential case that although Joseph Khalil Aoun is not Hezbollah’s choice for the the post of president, the movement does not close the door to him and if there is a consensus about this option, Hezbollah will not oppose it. In other words, Hezbollah does not seek to impose any candidate on the others and welcomes any solution and option to end the political vacuum in the country in the best interests of Lebanon.
By making a transparent stance, Hezbollah blocks any excuses of the opposition that seek to obstruct the political process. After all, opposition parties are affiliated with foreign powers and over the past years have inflamed crises in Lebanon to paint Hezbollah as the main party to blame for the insecurity and economic crisis. However, Hezbollah has proven that it puts national interests before party interests. Its move to provide fuel from Iran to home consumption was one of its good will gestures. And now the ball is in the court of other parties to show their good will to help the country move out of the political and economic crises.
On the other side, the opposition leaders are weighing up their choices, and though they have not named a candidate so far, they will name theirs in next parliament sessions. Some sources have claimed that opposition choice may outvote Franjieh and it depends on the FPU for whom it will choose to vote. The talks with it are ongoing, said sources.
Though FPU is opposed to Franjieh, it does not advocate a candidate not favorable to Hezbollah. An official close to Bassil said that they are opposed to Franjieh, but they do not want the country to move towards a deeper crisis and they want someone who can have good interactions with the outside world and can provide for Lebanese interests.
Some opposition leaders claim that if they advocate Franjieh, they will gain more interests, but they prefer national interests over individual and party interests. These claims are made while over the past year, the opposition leaders have been putting skids under peace and stability in the country under the influence of the US and Saudi Arabia and have mainly preferred foreign over national interests.
Some media outlets maintained that some parties may cut the next parliament session for it to fall from majority. This will perpetuate the presidential vacuum and deepen the economic and political crises.
Still, Iranian-Saudi détente agreement that encouraged Arab-Syrian rapprochement and de-escalated the tensions can also influence Lebanon’s politics, and it seems that this time, Lebanese factions will exit the crisis and patch up their country’s conditions motivated by regional reconciliations./129