Given the complicated and covert aspects of the Taliban’s internal disputes, Alwaght news has talked to Bahram Zahedi, an Iranian expert of Afghanistan affairs.
Q: In recent weeks, there have been many news about the widening differences within the Taliban about removal of its leader, and it seems that the Haqqani Network has severely criticized the leader Hibatullah Akhundzada. From your point of view, how serious is the split in the Taliban and how likely is the removal of the Taliban leader in the current situation?
Zahedi: There are two very important points concerning this issue. First, that in our analytical work we must find the correct answer to make it a prelude to our precise calculation and analysis, regardless of those who want to work against or in favor of someone in a propagandistic way. Last year, many news reports were published about the deep chasms within the Taliban, such as shooting at each other of supporters of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Sirajuddin Haqqani, and over time it became clear that these news were not true, but the media outlets continued to circulate them.
Second, differences exist in various layers of the Taliban, but they cannot be named divisions as the media do. In any political system, the factions have different visions and Afghanistan is no exception, but what we hear about as deep divisions that can lead to dismissal of the leader are either covert and the Taliban do not comment on them or the media deal with them dishonestly. The news reports that quote the interior minister in the interim government Sirajuddin Haqqani come while he in his comments did not mention the Taliban’s leader and it is just a assumed that he talked about Akhundzada. Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesperson of the Taliban, did not directly mention the Haqqani Network in his briefings and spoke about the the media activities. He was asked if the media can criticize the government. He replied yes, adding, however, that they should consider the emir’s respect. In my opinion, in the current situation, it is almost zero probability that the Taliban would want to change its leader, and the differences of the political factions are too minor to cause fundamental changes in the government.
Q: It is said that criticism against the Taliban’s leader is because of his opposition to woman activities in the society and Afghanistan interaction with the world. How real is this? Will Akhundzada dismissal settle Afghanistan’s problems with the world community?
Zahedi: This is not true, I listened to all the speeches of Haqqani, who did not mention anyone. In the past few weeks, there were discussions about the issues of work and education of women, which seem to have been Haqqani’s opinion and the quote was indirect. In a recent speech, Haqqani emphasized that some people like to monopolize power and some have interpreted the monopolization word as a reference to the Taliban leader, but if we refer to the original comments, we can analyze them correctly. We cannot very much trust the news circulating on social media.
Q: Who is the next leader if Akhundzada is removed from power? Some see Mullah Baradar as having the biggest chance. Is there a consensus on him?
Zahedi: Currently, the Taliban’s consensus is on Akhundzada and leadership change is untrue. But among the old guard, Mullah Baradar is a weighty option and if one time Akhundzada is removed, Mullah Baradar would be the main choice. However, these possibilities are not strong at present.
Q: Given the prohibition of desecration to the leader by the spokesman, how would it help bridge the gaps and encourage unity and cooperation?
Zahedi: I just said that there are no divisions, but if we imagine that the past differences could cause serious problems inside the Taliban, the comments of Zabihullah Mujahid somehow ended the dispute as he said that these issues should be raised in a way that contain no disrespect to the very Islamic Emirati and its leader, and this, indeed, can positively influence Taliban’s work. I need to emphasize that there are differences inside the Taliban but they don't account to a division. News reports from these differences led to conclusion that fundamental developments are slated in Afghanistan and the leader will be dismissed, but they are incorrect.
Q: How do you assess Taliban’s measures for international recognition? Have important steps been taken in this regard?
Zahedi: Yes, internationally, such countries as China, Russia, and Iran that have wider relations with the Taliban have taken steps to boost ties with Afghanistan. China signed deal to produce oil from Amu Darya deposit. Russia held Afghanistan summit and emphasized on security and stability there and the participating countries condemned freezing Afghanistan assets by the US. And Afghanistan marked the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution of Iran and also anniversary of IRGC General Qassem Soleimani, signaling boost in relations.
Q: The ban on women education and work, which the Taliban said would not remove even under foreign pressures, is being modified to help improve women conditions. What plans have been done in this area?
Zahedi: The complete ban of women from education is a mistake, and the Taliban said from the beginning that schools and universities would be closed for some reforms and then would be reopened and now they have raised the same issue again, and it is nothing new. The issue of banning girls’ education was raised when universities and schools were reopening. The interim government argued that there are problems in universities, including the inappropriate condition of dormitories and the content of textbooks, which are not approved by the Islamic Emirate and need to be revised.
Q: What are your assessment of the important challenges ahead of the Taliban rule?
Zahedi: The situation is presently in a way that
there is no rival as strong and weighty as the Taliban in Afghanistan
and the recent comments made by the former Vice President General Abdul
Rashid Dostum were just a propaganda to captivate foreign attention and
to win support of the US and NATO to the failed former leaders.
Therefore, politically and socially, there is no force powerful enough
to challenge the Taliban in Afghanistan, and it is only ISIS which
mainly carries out blind attacks on the cities. And internationally, the
only serious challenge is the blockade of Afghanistan assets by the US
that has downsized national economy. But these factors would not cause
fundamental changes in the political process in the country.
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