Although Netanyahu has not commented on the agreement since the election results gave him the lead, he earlier had described it a “historic surrender,” adding that Lapid was surrendering to Hezbollah in a humiliating way. He panned the prime minister for not referring the deal to the Knesset or public referendum, adding that without a national referendum, the deal would be non-binding.
However, despite Netanyahu’s anti-deal threats and a look at the aspects of the significance of the deal to the Israeli security, the stability of Netanyahu’s cabinet, and also the side issues associated with the agreement, it seems that Netanyahu would not realize his bluffs.
Netanyahu’s precedent retreats
During his hold of power, Netanyahu resigned himself to agreements he
inherited from his predecessors. This can be seen in the case of the
Oslo Accords in 1993. He had threatened that should he take the office,
he would revoke them, but when he assumed the office in 1996, not only
did he not cancel them, but also he approved the agreements and accepted
re-establishment of the Palestinian Authority’s rule in Hebron, which
the Jews call the city of patriarchs of the holy book . He also signed
Wye River Accords with Yasser Arafat, head of the Palestine Liberation
Organization, in 1998, and remained committed to the 1994 peace treaty
with Jordan signed by Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.
Netanyahu even committed, though reluctantly, to the 2005 Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank, which was carried out by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon before Netanyahu returned to power in 2009.
This record of Netanyahu walk-backs comes as Lebanon case is way more complicated and risky if scrapped.
Sword of Resistance hanging over Israel head
Before anything, Netanyahu’s threats against the Lapid’s deal with
Lebanon raises a question: Would the new Israeli cabinet have power more
than its predecessor on which Netanyahu counts to intimidate
Hezbollah?
Actually, Netanyahu’s predecessor used all of the Israeli military tools and other power factors to force Hezbollah away from pursuing Lebanon's maritime rights. Military threats were constantly pouring out of the Israeli officials’ mouths but Hezbollah resolution to protect national maritime interests and adoption of battle formation and sending combat drones over Israeli offshore gas facilities left Tel Aviv no choice but concede to the succumb to movement's demands.
On the other side, Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, relying on the movement's power warned about any Israeli failure to keep its commitment.
On Saturday night, Nasrallah said that there are no signs Israel is walking out of the deal, but stressed that Lebanon's power and power factors provide a guarantee to Israeli continuation of commitment to the agreement.
Adding that Lebanon cannot rely on the American guarantees for the deal to keep working, Hezbollah secretary-general maintained that “we should only rely on the resistance power element for saving the maritime border demarcation agreement.”
In other words, it should be mentioned that Netanyahu knows well that this dead is the only Israeli way of producing energy from its sea reserves and a guarantee for security of its offshore facilities and investments. He knows well that its scrapping would jeopardize Israeli national security, economic interests, the future of Mediterranean gas exploration, and its credibility.
Internal Israeli crisis
From another perspective, one of the biggest limitations of Netanyahu is
the Israeli regime's internal issues, and in other words, the crisis
that has shaken its security foundations these days with the emergence
of the Palestinian armed intifada.
Hard-line Netanyahu partners, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, certainly make no compromises about the internal unrest. In Recent months, the Palestinians launched tens of successful operations against the Israeli soldiers and settlers in the West Bank and inside the occupied territories of 1948. So, the current strained conditions and their possible intensification in the weeks and months to come would take from Netanyahu the opportunity of adventures, as he has found a golden chance to form a government with the centrists and does not want to lose it. In this regard, even other Israeli leaders, including President Isaac Herzog, do not interpret Netanyahu’s comeback as the end of home instability and warn about further differences and challenges.
US need for the deal
Netanyahu is also aware of Washington's possible reaction to scrapping a
deal President Joe Biden worked hard to strike. He would possibly
continue to censure the deal and demand its amendment, but would not
ditch it.
Although the American governments have always considered the Israeli interests as their red line in regional policies and have covered up and justified the Israeli reneging on its commitments regarding settlements and any other agreement, the White House is fully aware of Israel being in a weak position and rejects axing the agreement as this would prove troublesome while the West is involved in a confrontation with Russia in Ukraine.
In his recent speech, Hezbollah chief held that the main aim of the American policy in the region is protection of the Israeli existence.
“The goals and principles of all American governments are the same and they differ only in tactics and methods. The number one side that has assumed the responsibility of supporting the survival of the Israeli regime in our region is the United States. The United States of America bears the responsibility for all the aggression committed by the Zionist regime against the Palestinians,” Nasrallah said.
Also, the Lebanese government finds the US responsible. Lebanon Deputy Speaker of Parliament and the deal negotiator Elias Bou Saab said “we took sufficient American guarantees that this deal will not be easily scrapped.”
Maintaining that Tel Aviv and Beirut signed separate deals with Washington, Bou Saab told the AFP that if Netanyahu intends to withdraw from the deal, he would withdraw from the deal with the US.”
In addition to the Israeli security and American prestige as
pushbacks against Netanyahu’s will to cancel the deal, Biden has shown
that he counts on the fruits of the agreement to cut the European energy
crunch amid Russian sanctions, and therefore, ditching the deal would
fray Washington-Tel Aviv relations.
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