Alwaght News arranged an interview with West Asia affairs expert Musaib Naeemi, asking him for details on the Lebanese political developments.
Q: Monday was Najib Mikati’s last day of opportunity to form a new government but he made no move. What was behind his procrastination despite warnings from the president and the parliament speaker. What was his excuse?
Naeemi: Monday was the last day of Michel Aoun's presidency, and he left the presidential palace the day after. It was also the end of Mikati as PM-designate, and Aoun revoked the letter of his caretaker cabinet and submitted it to the parliament. Actually, since Monday, Lebanon has neither a president nor a prime minister, and this vacuum requires a special process, and even in the nation's laws, such a situation is not foreseen. According to the constitution, if there is no president, then the prime minister temporarily manages the affairs of the country, and now with the decree signed by Michel Aoun before leaving his office, Mikati is not the prime minister either and has been removed from his position. Therefore, this process should be done in the next stage by the parliament, which will name an elected body and probably seek to choose a new president, because without the president, they cannot nominate the prime minister, and only with the advice of the president, the ministers are nominated to the parliament for the cabinet to be formed. Therefore, now the only way left for the Lebanese is to elect a new president as soon as possible through the parliament. This vacuum took place in 2016 when Michel Suleiman’s term ended.
In the Lebanon's structure, consensus is crucial and a single party cannot elect a president or a prime minister, because the president must have two-thirds of the votes of the MPs in the first round, and if he fails to secure them, in the second round, he must get half of the votes +1, but none of the political groups have such a majority in the parliament. With the absence of the president and prime minister, Lebanon will enter a difficult phase and all groups must agree to form a government and elect a president.
The reason that Mikati failed to form a government during his time was, firstly, was due to his political inclinations. Some allied factions abandoned him in the middle of the road. Secondly, the opposition were opposed to his policies because he was supposed to announce a transparent policy to allow him name a cabinet. He was negligent, however, and this meant that even if he presented a cabinet, the parliament would not have given its vote of confidence to him. The prime minister must specify his work plan in several economic, political and resistance areas, and if he acts personally, it will not be accepted by the factions. One of the conditions of being a prime minister in Lebanon is that the candidate should come with a plan and commit to implementing it, and the ministers named by the factions must be convinced to obey these plans. But Mikati could not convince the political groups to comply with his plans. Mikati himself did not want to agree with them and maybe in this context he was given a mission by some parties to act in a different way, but the parties did not allow him to act individually.
Q: What was the role of the behind-the-scenes foreign and internal actors in the political stalemate and failure to form a new cabinet in Lebanon? How influential have these actors been?
Naeemi: Lebanon has several political alliances, with their largest ones being the March 14 and March 8, one tending to Hezbollah and resistance as and the other leaning to the West. Aoun once admitted that some political factions are acting as economic dominance mafia, taking away from the president the power for deep economic reforms. On the other hand, no political alliance in Lebanon is ready to take over political and economic management. So, in the current situation, Lebanon should expect consultations like before for a middle solution to elect an agreed-upon candidate. Many candidates have announced their candidacy, but none of them could win the favor of the parliament, and now the main candidates with the highest chance are Suleiman Frangieh and Gibran Basil.
Q: What are March 8 Alliance’s instruments to find a solution or force Mikati to resign to pave the way for a new PM?
Naeemi: Before Aoun was elected as president, Lebanon was without a president for months but the country was run. Still, it needs a governance system to move out of the economic crisis it is grappling with. Now, the laws regarding the gas production should be enacted based on some economic formulas. Also, decisions must be made about the Lebanese cooperation with other countries but absence of president and PM makes it impossible to do so. Given the internal crises the country is living, some parties with thorough acceptance among all Lebanese parties will mediate to help guide Lebanon out of the current conditions. The Lebanese have no way but cooperation and consensus, and things will not go worse than now in the future.
Q: Will Mikati be caretaker PM in the absence of president?
Naeemi: Under these conditions, Mikati will continue as a caretaker PM but devoid of legal powers or the capability to make laws.
Q: What would happen to the gas deal with Israel? If there was a government, Lebanon could see part of its problems solved by producing gas and exporting it.
Naeemi: Under the agreement, the maritime borders were demarcated, and now everything depends on the foreign companies that are to produce gas, and to implement these agreements, there must be a government. The implementation further needs a parliamentary bill and takes its own legal process and the problem would not be solved this soon. Though the deal improved the Lebanese national currency, lira, value, as long as there is no independent government, Lebanon will live with challenges.
Q: Why has Lebanon been in political dead ends and unable to form a government? Why are government formed with difficulty in the country?
Naeemi: There are many reasons for that. First,
Lebanon is located in a strategic area and near the occupied Palestinian
territories and Tel Aviv takes advantage of Lebanese crises and
insecurity, and if there is a stable government in Lebanon, the Israelis
feel threatened. In addition, the Western and some Arab countries are
present in Lebanon in the form of influence in some parties. Hezbollah
blocked their direct presence in the Lebanese political structure and
they destabilized the country in retaliation. Over the past two decades,
the West sought to put Lebanon in a political and economic dire straits
but their plans backfired. Since the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and
occupation of the southern regions, the crisis has existed in the
country. The West still pursues its plans as a stable Lebanon makes an
obstacle to the Israeli expansionist plans.
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