He met the Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday during his visit to Kazakhstan for the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit.
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin had said that Erdogan was willing to discuss with his Russian counterpart the prospects for Turkey's mediation of Ukraine peace in Astana. He said there were many challenges to achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine, adding that during the last week's phone conversation between the two, Putin had expressed his will to accept Ankara’s mediation in talks with Kiev.
Erdogan's meeting with Putin was the fourth since the start of the war in Ukraine in February, and it took place while the tensions between Russia and the West have elevated to new heights in recent days and weeks due to the holding of the referendum in the eastern regions of Ukraine and the annexation of these regions to Russian territory, and the officials of both sides have been warning about the occurrence of World War III and a ‘nuclear Armageddon— a issue that will affect the not-so-warm relations between Ankara and the West as Ankara continues non-compliance with NATO's policies against Russia.
In Ukraine crisis, in order not to upset Russia, Erdogan opposed Western sanctions against this country on the one hand, and on the other hand, in order to appease the West, he condemned the military campaign in Ukraine and even supplied Ukraine's army with assault Bayraktar B-2 drones. But this balancing policy has not done much to persuade Moscow and NATO as Ankara leaders had wished. Russia is extremely angry with the sale of combat drones to Ukraine, which have proven effective on the battlegrounds against Russian forces, and Erdogan tried to ease Moscow's security concerns by meeting Putin. Also, Kremlin is unhappy with Ankara's stance on the annexation of Ukraine territories to Russia. Immediately after Putin signed the annexation document, Turkey said it would not recognize the move. So, Erdogan wants to consult with Putin about this sensitive issue and explain his country's positions in person to resolve the misunderstandings that have arisen between Ankara and Moscow in this relation.
Winning Western contentment
From another perspective, the West, especially the US, is highly discontented with the Turkish duality of approach concerning Ukraine crisis because Washington expected this NATO member to stand by the allies and contribute to the political, economic, and military pressures of the West against Moscow, but Erdogan had chosen a different path. Having in mind that the differences between Turkey and NATO members have increased over the crisis in Ukraine and that Turkey has somehow been excommunicated by the West, Erdogan intends to prepare the ground for Russia-Ukraine peace talks and thus work out a solution to the enlarging crisis.
Erdogan eyes NATO allies’ contentment by mediation between the warring sides, as the way of Turkish dealing with Ukraine crisis and at the same time tensions with Greece in the Aegean Sea have caused a division in NATO's eastern wing. If these crises continue, wider NATO ruptures are not unlikely, which could trigger American and European punishment of Ankara to prevent deeper disunity within the military organization. Erdogan is concerned about such reactio from the West as he has an election to win next year. Washington and Brussels’ support to Athens was an initial punitive measure and if Erdogan does not comply with the Western policies, he risks Western retribution.
Given the severe Western pressures Turkey is under for its ongoing economic interactions with Russia, Ankara plans to bring Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the negotiating table for peace talks as soon as possible, so that this crisis, which is increasingly globalized and is taking a dangerous turn for worse, ends. Actually, in order to heal Turkey's troubled economy, Erdogan is thinking of continuing trade with Moscow, and as long as the war in Ukraine continues, Ankara will also suffer from it.
Turkey planned to take advantage of the opportunity of the war in Ukraine with the withdrawal of Western companies from Russia to replace West and invest in the country's industrial sector for high revenues, but the developments did not proceed as Erdogan expected and Ankara last month and under US duress confirmed that the three remaining Turkish banks that continued to accept Russian payment cards had also severed their banking ties with Moscow. Therefore, now not only Turkey's active presence in the Russian economy has disappeared, but also even banking interactions have faced a crisis. The inability to solve the economic problems ahead of elections could end up being detrimental to Erdogan's government, and that is why he is frequently meeting with Putin to end the war.
Normalizing with Syria via Putin's mediation
In recent months, Turkish officials several times expressed readiness to normalize ties with Syria. Last week, Erdogan said meeting the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is possible. Putin can play a major role in the neighbors’ rapprochement.
Although Damascus leaders have ruled out any meeting between al-Assad and Erdogan in the current conditions, as the Turkish presidential spokesman said, Putin has proposed “direct negotiations” between the two leaders, and a historic meeting after 11 years may take place in the near future. In recent days, preparations have been made for talks between the foreign ministers of the two countries, and they are going to meet each other soon to close a decade of diplomatic crisis between the two countries. Therefore, Turkey, which has some concerns from Syrian side, is trying to eliminate them through Putin's mediation and pave the way for the normalization with Damascus.
Syrian officials have repeatedly said that the mere announcement of will by Ankara to solve a decade-long crisis does not suffice and the Turkish officials should accept Syrian conditions and reverse their past hostility to Syria. Syria occupied a large part of Erdogan's foreign policy over the last decade and reaching a settlement with Damascus can secure for Erdogan and his government political benefits.
Finding continuation of Ukraine crisis and Russia-West confrontation not in its interests and also under pressure because of its dual-faced stances to the opposite sides, Turkey seeks an effective role in this global crisis by mediating between Moscow and Kiev to rescue its stumbling economy that is at stake these days more than before/129